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Post by thegiss on Nov 13, 2006 17:09:35 GMT -5
Hey guys. Just curious. On the Brewer/Shetler and even Weller in from Indy horses or Virgil/Dean Collins in from Colonial horses, are you going to Pathway to check their ability to get around a half, or arte you hanidcapping them based strictly on the 6, 8 or 12 line PP you usually use?
For instance, 1st time Virgil (or 1st time Virgil from a mile to a 1/2) horses have a huge tendency to break. He tends to really let the hopples out on th ebig tracks (or first time) and then moving to the small track, imo, they don't get tightened up as they should.
Last question (related) do you look at a two or three-year-old who has never raced on a half differently than a raceway horse who has never raced on a half.
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Post by trackrat on Nov 13, 2006 18:18:48 GMT -5
Keith, that is some useful info that the average fan doesn't ever have access to. Thanks for sharing it with us.
I usually just wait until they have a Northfield race or two under their belt, but by then, some of the value might be gone.
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Post by jay44224 on Nov 13, 2006 21:31:05 GMT -5
I first check to see if the horse is competitive at the level he will try here- Judgement call- If I feel he can't compete in the class- then I do not worry if he can handle the half. If he looks as if he may be competitive I will look as far back in his history to see if he raced on a half- if he has was he competitive- if all is still fvorable I look to see if this horse can leave for position and finish if asked to. If he is a one run horse I will pass on the first couple of starts.
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Post by cliff on Nov 14, 2006 10:54:33 GMT -5
My thoughts are similar to Jay's. I handicap the horse without regard to what size track it has been racing on. If the horse appears to be a contender, then I look at the nuances. I don't overly concern myself about a horse's transition to a smaller track. If I have any history or knowledge that the horse has raced on a half miler, that usually gives me confidence the horse will be alright.
Typically young horses have had at least some experience on small tracks, either in training or on the fair circuit. I check to see if the horse has any breaking tendencies at all. If the horse has a clean record, even it has been on a large track, I will usually give it the benefit of the doubt when transitioning to a smaller track.
In the final analysis, young horses are always a crap shoot. There may be too much risk to bet the race in any event, especially if there are doubts about a main contender being able to navigate the turns at Northfield. It's analogous to handicapping a trot where the fastest horse breaks a significant amount of the time. The race becomes unplayable because one cannot bet the breaker, but can't bet against him either.
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