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Post by therock06 on Dec 9, 2006 22:50:24 GMT -5
How have they been faring at Northfield ?
My question stems from the 5th race tonight, an 8 claimer.
The rail horse, Joe Leggio trained, ships in from New York where he faced 8 claimers. His last few starts he had drawn inside and I beleive had Holliday driving -- and this horse looked to get off around 8 or 9 - 1 every week.
Tonight, facing 8's at Northfield he was 3-5 going to the gate. Got pressed from the start and tired going to the backside.
SHOULD NEW YORK HORSES DEMAND THIS KINDA RESPECT ?
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Post by cliff on Dec 10, 2006 1:13:18 GMT -5
SHOULD NEW YORK HORSES DEMAND THIS KINDA RESPECT ? Perhaps not, but this horse was 11 for 37 this year, and any horse that wins nearly 30% of his races is worth a hard look. The horse hadn't shown much form lately, but a lot of folks (including me, unfortunately) probably thought the slide was due to the change to the Holiday barn. Apparently it was just coincidental. Add to the fact that this was a weak division of 8 claimers, and the main competition was going to come from a horse in the 8 hole, one can understand how the money gravitated to Looking To Art. |
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Post by jimhorseman on Dec 10, 2006 22:09:07 GMT -5
A subject right up my alley. Since I'm based in the Buffalo Raceway/Batavia Downs corridor the ship-ins from New York are almost all coming from my home track. Quite frankly I generally don't bet any of them, especially in their first Northfield start.
Buffalo/Batavia had a major purse increase two years ago due to the addition of slot machines. However; for the decade before that they were a low-level "B" track. This area was surrounded by higher level tracks; Ontario to the north, Northfield to the west and the Meadows to the south. Even the other NY state tracks were considered higher quality. Thus the Buffalo/Batavia circuit consisted of the lowest possible level of stock taken care of by locals who were in it for the love of the sport and probably didn't have the skill or ability to move on. That situation didn't change overnight with the purse increase. Ontario still has a high purse structure due to slot revenue, the other NY state tracks also added slots thus increasing purses and the Meadows announced they would add slots and preference would be given to PA based stables so most were reluctant to make a short term move to Buffalo/Batavia. In fact, the only two new stables to come were from Northfield, the Holliday and Kash Jr/Campbell folks. Bottom line is the stock is still of rather low quality. That will probably change with time as the locals began earning profits from the higher purses and bring in better flesh. In the meantime, most of the horses coming to Northfield are lower quality. A couple of fridays ago a horse shipped in from Batavia named Rose Street Doll. She was the queen of the fillies/mares opens here for years. Always raced in the feature race and always assigned the outside post, she still would win almost half the races. Rose Street Doll was purchased privately by the Hollidays who boldly shipped her to Northfield where she was made a 3-1 morning line favorite in a mid-level condition race. She was sixth by sixteen and never got a call as best I can remember. She can right back to Batavia the next friday where the locals still made her a near favorite. They recognized to disregard the Northfield race as our best can't compete there. Hurricane Kelsey shipped in this past friday and due to a scratch had the rail and was listed at 7-2 on the morning line. She raced in $4 claimers here but was entered in a $3 claimer at Northfield. Hurricane Kelsey did finish third though by 8 lengths going all out to run a 31.4 last quarter and hold that position. I usually play the other angle. Horses shipping from Northfield to NY run much better than they show. Big Bud Time had been no closer than 15 lengths in her last three Northfield starts when she shipped in to Batavia. She won easily. Big Bud Time came back to Northfield this past friday and ran sixth.
A second reason Buffalo/Batavia horses run poorly, especially in their first start is the track difference. Yes, both are half mile tracks. However; Buffalo Raceway has minimal bank in their turns. This is in contrast to Northfield, home of the flying turns. Buffalo also has a stretch over 200 feet longer than Northfield but that means there is 200 less feet into the first turn. When the gate opens horses are almost immediately into the turn. It is hard for front runners from the far outside, especially with the flat opening turn. Inside speed can usually clear easily and put the brakes on by the eight pole. First quarters are slower. Horses first over take a beating due to the turn configuration thus most wait to the 5/8 pole before moving so they are only out for one turn coming home. At Northfield first over is not necessarily a bad place to be and most of the hardball begins on the second turn. The track is deeper and slower than Northfield, horses are designed to run differently and it takes them awhile to adjust to Northfield if they can adjust at all. Front runners are not use to having pressure from the 3/8 pole on. Closers are trained to make one late brush move and that rarely works at Northfield unless timed perfectly. The Northfield drivers may know the proper move to make at their home track but they are asking the shipped in horse to do something they have not been accustomed to doing so they don't respond as expected.
Bottom line - when I see a shipped in NY horse bet to 3-5 like this past saturday it is a money making opportunity. Bet against them.
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Post by trackrat on Dec 10, 2006 22:18:19 GMT -5
Good analysis, Jim. Thanks.
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Post by cliff on Dec 10, 2006 23:19:40 GMT -5
Posting daily selections is fun...handicapping contests are fun, but it is this kind of valuable information and insight that makes this forum so valuable. Thanks for sharing, Jim.  |
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Post by BlackWater on Dec 11, 2006 23:50:18 GMT -5
And yet Ohio votes down the opportunity to add revenue with slots! And now I can't even smoke when I go to the track! AAAARRRRGGGGHHHHHH! I have GOT to get off this planet! M  |
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Post by the believer on Dec 13, 2006 21:04:36 GMT -5
RACE 7...Electric Charlie.......NY INVADER........like the song-...ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST......Jim......what's your take on this 4-5 shot ,top driver combo...up the track!
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Post by jimhorseman on Dec 13, 2006 21:38:34 GMT -5
Believer:
Just in from a long night. I had no time to handicap and made a couple quick contest selections by memory of horses I'd seen. I did see Electric Charlie listed and wanted to make a bet against him but didn't know who to go to. I thought he might be bet well but 4-5??? Hopefully our fellow board members were paying attention and took advantage of a terrific wagering opportunity. I stand by my previous post. Electric Charlie was in the lowest level claimer beating the lowest level horses at a B track. These horses just can't compete initially at Northfield. By the way, it worked the other way for a while as well. When Ken Holliday first came to Buffalo he had some problems adjusting to the racing. I remember an interview he did locally where he stated he needed to learn patience. He was moving too early and had nothing left in deep stretch. With 660 feet from the top of the lane there is more time to make a late run. It seemed like Kash Jr broke every trotter he left with the first few weeks. He wasn't use to the quick, flat first turn. I'm not sure he ever adjusted. He still seems ginger on the first turn and rarely leaves, even for position.
Betting against heavy Buffalo/Batavia favorites is a great angle and one to be watched for.
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Post by jimhorseman on Dec 13, 2006 21:48:11 GMT -5
An added note to the above. I realize Electric Charlie had Gris in the bike. However; the horse is use to a certain style of racing. Gris probably knew the right move to make but a horse is probably being asked to do something foreign to his recent training/racing nature. I didn't see the race or the line from the race but if he went to the front the horse was probably overly exerted by earlier than usual pressure. If he tried to close Gris probably started earlier and asked more sooner than the horse usually gave in the recent past. Also, don't be fooled if it appears a Buffalo/Batavia horse is dropping down into easier conditions. The $5 claimers in NY are probably equivilent to the $3 claimers at Northfield. The mid-level condition at Buffalo may have trouble competing at the lowest condition level at Northfield. Kash Jr had a nice Northfield trotter; Kami's Call at Buffalo/Batavia. Despite being assigned the outside post nearly all summer and Kash never leaving and always coming from way back the horse made about $100k this year.
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