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Post by trackrat on Jan 13, 2007 7:58:24 GMT -5
What change, if any, in racing strategies has anyone noticed since the departure of Greg Grismore? As we know, Grismore usually had the choice of the 2-3 best horses to drive in each race and, in my opinion, his race strategy affected the race strategy of all of the other drivers. Grismore controlled the tempo of the race and everyone else played off that tempo.
Has anyone stepped up to take charge?
As a handicapper, is it an advantage or disadvantage with Grismore gone?
Hopefully, we'll get some interesting observations and dialogue from this thread. Let's hear your views.
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Post by the believer on Jan 13, 2007 10:31:59 GMT -5
Great questions Trackrat , i find myself looking for Merriman , Stahl , Deaton ..and Fisher as far as the drivers to take note of each race there in.....we'll see , but these drivers are not the GRISMORE type ..THE above drivers except Stahl ,have connections to favor each week- Merriman goes to a Schillaci horse (who may or may not be the best or his choice if he didn't have the connection...Elliot is the same ...to an extent ..driving for his brother Mark and so on...a good question is what catch driver do you favor on your selection.?..if you go to Stahl you get a driver much like GRISMORE , MONEY DRIVER....no ties that i know of...to freely choose his drive....Stahl...is the driver for my money , if that is what your asking ?...
...Grismore gone is a disadvantage.....there's much more equal top guys,when you bet against Grismore and won ,you usually got good return on the wager.......... Intimidation factor--The Gris was able to secure and maintain this factor in racing at Northfield...he had other drivers scratching their heads ...as he was not afraid to drive the horse like the best...even with the eight hole! Is there an INTIMIDATOR..driving at Nfld right now...don't think so...anybody know any drivers they could ask ?
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Post by cliff on Jan 13, 2007 10:53:48 GMT -5
It doesn't change my handicapping, but it does change my wagering strategy a bit. Northfield has always been a track where the public bets the driver, at least since the days of Walter Case. Grismore has been the guy in recent seasons. With Greg gone, Merriman and Deaton become the guys.
It becomes an excercise to find the horse(s) that can beat them in any given race. Since they both will be over played, even when they don't necessarily have the best horse, it opens up wagering opportunities.
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Post by trackrat on Jan 13, 2007 12:15:00 GMT -5
The one thing I loved about Grismore is that he ALWAYS had the horse's nose on the gate. He never made the horse race another 1/8 of a mile to catch up to the gate.
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Post by jay44224 on Jan 13, 2007 21:56:40 GMT -5
It may be my imagination - but When Greg chose a horse- he rarely got beat by a horse he chose off of- it helped me to eliminate ones that had a shot at winning. That is not the same with some of these other drivers - they either do not have the knack of picking the better horse- or they are more loyal to a particular trainer, and that makes you have to consider the possobilities as to why a horse was passed on. But what it has done is made it harder to say so and so chose off that so don't consider him on top of the ticket.
I think it has added a new dimension- takes more skill and homework- and the payoffs have been quite generous if you are on top of your game
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Post by jimhorseman on Jan 13, 2007 23:12:05 GMT -5
Guys:
I'm more in line with Cliff's opinion on this topic. I will only wager in real dollars on races I have properly handicapped and think there is either high reward for the risk or feel there is a significant chance of success for lower reward bets. I begin by using a rating system for each horse that initially does not take the driver into account. A playable race will yield two-three horses that seem to have a legitimate chance to win and several that can be eliminated. What I like about the system I use is that often the horses I eliminate are morning line favorites and horses that can win are longer on the morning line. With two to three serious contenders I then begin to look at common factors such as driver, post position, class, form, days between races etc. Once I've settled on a horse or two to use I'll then look at the race a second time with a pace/trip scenerio. Who will leave? Will they be challenged on the front? Who will probably have to pull first over? Can that horse challenge the probable early leader? is the first over good in air? Who will get a cover trip? Can the front take a potential pocket sitter to the lane? I'll quickly try to visualize how the race may play out and whether the horse/horses I chose initially can get a proper trip. If both times I analyze a race I come up with the same horse or combination of horses then I will wager that race and begin to construct my bet.
This of course takes a lot of work and time. It is probably why I only wager once (almost always fridays) or at most twice a week in real dollars. Hopefully a little later in life when I have more free time I'll be able to devote more attention to the process. I can't tell you how much respect I have for Jay and Cliff who post terrific daily analysis. I could never do that at this point in my life.
I'm on a bit of a tangent but bottom line is Grismore leaving has minimal impact on my handicapping. I try to find the fastest and most fit horses in each race. The driver may play a part in how much I bet. The top third drivers I will bet a little more heavily, the middle third more conservatively and if I'm coming down to where the horses I like are piloted by a Santa Clause driver (comes around once a year) I'll pass the race itself but may use that horse as part of a pick wager just in case.
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Post by cliff on Jan 14, 2007 0:58:27 GMT -5
It may be my imagination - but When Greg chose a horse- he rarely got beat by a horse he chose off of- it helped me to eliminate ones that had a shot at winning. It wasn't your imagination...Greg did get beaten by horses he chose off, e.g., he would stick with a Weller horse who had the 8 hole over a horse with a more advantagous post, and may have finished behind that horse, but he rarely chose off a horse that ended up winning the race. That was such a powerful angle that I could never bring myself to key on a horse rejected by Greg. |
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Post by therock06 on Jan 14, 2007 19:24:15 GMT -5
I have seen more guys trying to leave as of lately, ecspecially those that would be considered the county fair type. Perhaps it was Greg's intimidation and somewhat fear factor that people were more reluctant to leave agains Greg.
Gris would would turn loose Aaron or Stahl but would more than likely hang someone out to dry and use them later in the mile.
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Post by trackrat on Jan 15, 2007 12:27:06 GMT -5
When Grismore was here, he had three things going for him as the gate opened: he usually had one of the three best horses in the race, he usually left for either the front or position AND everyone knew that if you parked him, there was going to be a price to pay.
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