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Post by jimhorseman on Jan 13, 2007 23:30:26 GMT -5
The Grismore thread about handicapping has me thinking about drivers that aren't necessarily bad but are jinxes for certain betters. For example; my best friend who I attend the races with every friday has had poor luck with Dan Noble since he's arrived. Seems whenever he uses Noble the horse gets caught in a speed duel, gets locked in, blind switched etc. When he swears off Noble (like he did last night after I Am Sansational lost at 1/2) Dan will come back and beat him like he did in the finale last night with Explore.
The two guys I personally have had the most trouble catching are Ryan Stahl and Andy Shelter. Seems like when I use Shelter he runs big but just gets beat. It seems I've had more photo losses with Shelter in the past month than all other drivers combined. When I step out on Stahl it seems like the horse never gets a call. Yet at the end of the night I see he's had a couple of winners with several others in the money. Those who pay attention to the comment section of the handicapping contest know that JD Wengerd has been causing me pain.
Anybody else have a bad luck driver tormenting you?
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Post by thegiss on Jan 15, 2007 11:57:45 GMT -5
Keith Gisser  ;D |
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Post by the believer on Jan 23, 2007 21:31:14 GMT -5
Jim .... that Tony Rose is a thorne to me of late!.........can't seem to put a even money horse in the winner's circle...... it seems to me that 8 or 9 -1 is his kind off odds.
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Post by trackrat on Jan 23, 2007 22:10:28 GMT -5
Jim .... that Tony Rose is a thorne to me of late!.........can't seem to put a even money horse in the winner's circle...... it seems to me that 8 or 9 -1 is his kind off odds. He seems to have some talent, but I have used him with the knowledge that he seems to fade in the stretch when he has the pace setter. In real life betting, his fade has helped me cash for hundreds of bucks in the last two weeks. He scared me a couple times because it looked at the top of the stretch that he might win. |
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Post by jay44224 on Jan 24, 2007 9:35:10 GMT -5
Jim .... that Tony Rose is a thorne to me of late!.........can't seem to put a even money horse in the winner's circle...... it seems to me that 8 or 9 -1 is his kind off odds. It will come with time - up until the last couple of years he has had minimal starts, and although driving more he has had less than 600 starts in each of the last two years- the bright side is he makes moves with the horses and does not sit on the pylons waiting for things to come his way. Hopefully with more experience the moves will be better timed. As far as going backwards in the stretch- the hardest thing for a driver to learn is to keep a horse alive and moving forward even when he doesn't want to. For some it is a natural ability for others it comes with time- but the only way to learn is to be in that position- for those who never have a horse on the engine and try to keep it alive- they will probably never learn how. |
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Post by jimhorseman on Feb 3, 2007 19:45:16 GMT -5
I should start by admitting I had a very nice wagering night yesterday (Friday 2nd) and to many this post will look like pure greed. They're probably right. However; Aaron Merriman cost me too many dollars to count last night; mostly by keeping horses that looked completely empty alive to the wire. To recap my night:
Race 1: Even if I hate a race I try to wager a couple of dollars on it forcing me to watch. I made a $3 bet; a trifecta part wheel consisting of #3 Interstate Kent with #1 Shalomar Flight with the 2/4/5 for third. I was pleasantly surprised when Interstate Kent won at 12-1 followed by the #1. In the battle for third Aaron on the favorite Call Me Your Baby outbattles the 7-1 #4 A Good Message for third. Still an unexpected nice hit.
Race 6: I made Aaron and Jazzy Lass one of my best bets and being nicely ahead played the horse hard in exotics and pick wagers. Aaron broke at the gate.
Race 7: I had the trifecta no matter who won the photo for third. Johnny's Candy Girl won at about 5-2 and the five horse Sonellie was second at 25-1. Who won the photo for third between Aaron and Sophia at 4-5 or Miss Matillda at 12-1. Need you ask.
Race 10: I spent $24 on a superfecta wager. Played 24/24/18/All. The favorite I didn't use or like was Aaron on #6 River Chance who was coming from Yonkers off a better than 3 week layoff. The race ran 2-4-1 and sixteen lengths behind the winner a posted photo for 4th between Aaron and River Chance (who was being kicked at the half and looked all done well before the three quarter pole) and the 60-1 #8 Century Club. Danm that Aaron for keeping this thing alive.
Race 11: I'm alive in the pick four with the #1 Starlix and #2 Cherry Pie with Aaron. If Aaron wins the pick pays over $2k. Aaron gets out late and runs second. Starlix is bad and I miss a big payday.
Race 12: She Bunn Bunn with Aaron off the rail is overbet as the favorite in my opinion. I like #7 Norma Rockwell quite a bit but am worried after seeing the drive Deaton gave earlier on Fire Me out of the same 7 hole (very little effort). My speed rating system points to #5 Magic Oak who is a nice 15-1. My race handicapping partner thinks the #2 Beach Girl is a stick out. I make a large wager with Norma Rockwell and back it up with a $3 exacta box using 2-5. The two horse wins but Aaron noses out Magic Oak for second costing me a nice exacta.
Race 13: Loved #9 Southseas Hanover; hated #1 Toni Bell with Aaron at 4-5. The horse who intrigued me despite the driver was the #4 Dial for Dollars at 30-1. I flat bet Southseas Hanover then played a $2 exacta box 4-9 and a $1 Trifecta Wheel 4-9-All. Southseas wins and pays $8.80 while Dial For Dollars easily runs second. The battle is for third between Toni Bell and the 35-1 Mystical Smile with Doug Guptil. The winner at the wire; well to quote myself from last night "That #@%&^* Merriman did it to me again. "
Twenty four hours has cleared my head a bit and taking the emotion out of it my gut tells me to appreciate Merriman's driving skill rather than curse the big dollars lost.
However, I can't get this voice out of my head that keeps screaming $%#@% that %$#%%$ Merriman!!!
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;D
