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Post by thegiss on Apr 19, 2007 13:06:52 GMT -5
Looking for handicapping thoughts that I can link to Northfieldpark.com
At first look, I think we have a speed duel on our hands between Maltese Artist and Gold Dust Beach and the race may set up for Mister Big, who has already beaten Maltese Artist from a bad post on a half. If teh Artist gets the front and stopns in GDB's face, he could be in trouble. My Boy David is one of two wild cards-- as fast he is, I don't think he can get away better than third, meaning he is doomed first-up. Ryan Anderson isn;t used to the early moves--they single file it a lot more at Maywood. I also think Load The Dice is sitting on a big effort.. I think they have raced him "safe" coming off his atrial fibrillation last month.
Gonna be a great race-preliminary numbers for me would be 4/8/5/6 or 4/5/1/6, but I gotta put a lot more tim einto this one.
REMEMBER- Battle is the last leg of the Pick Fout this year!!
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Post by kangaroox on Apr 19, 2007 21:50:22 GMT -5
I think Brett Miller and Maltese Artist will make a second over trip for the win. The one thing I disagree with the Giss' initial scenario is that if you know Aaron Merriman, he's got to be leaving early as well, if for no other reason than to get ahead of the one-horse. Dodgeball's last four wins were all wire-to-wire and his speed rating in his most recent race was a nifty 101 so his handlers must think he's ready to go, otherwise he wouldn't be here. Although he lacks the class competition of some of the other competitors, don't let the 10-1 odds fool you into not thinking he's got a shot with a perfect trip. Therefore, Dodgeball and Gold Dust Beach should duke it out early for the lead with My Boy David settling in for third. I can't see Maltese Artist battling it out for the front end in the early going but Brett may flash a little out of the gate in order to get ahead of Our Lucky Killean if he lacks confidence in being able to follow that horse when he makes his move on the outside. The only way Maltese Artist battles Gold Dust Beach early for the lead is because he simply can't take any air on the outside. But you don't become a millionaire horse if you can't grind it out from time-to-time. In addition, if Maltese Artist fires, he would also risk getting parked out in the process, especially if Merriman and Dodgeball also fire to the front, and note the 26.1 first quarter in Gold Dust Beach's last start at Dover Downs. If, for some strange reason, Merriman doesn't fire with Dodgeball, then it would be a huge break for Brett Miller and Maltese Artist. However, with an inside post draw, why wouldn't Dodgeball leave unless Merriman knows he's outclassed and he is just out to get a check. But knowing Merriman, and if he's got any kind of horse, I have got to believe that he is leaving. If Dodgeball's role in the race is to be the rabbit, that's a part Merriman always loves to relish. The only other thing I can see in the early going is that David Miller might not fire to the front in the hopes of baiting Brett Miller into using up his horse in an early speed duel with Dodgeball. But I think such a scenario would actually be a gift for Brett. Furthermore, since Gold Dust Beach is the favorite, he almost has to fire by default in order to put up a good show for all his backers. Lastly, the lack of any recent past performance lines showing Maltese Artist grinding it out on the outside for the win should also be an additional inducement for David Miller to leave hard early with Gold Dust Beach and force Brett Miller and the rest to earn it the long way around.
By the half, Maltese Artist should be following either My Boy David or Our Lucky Killean second over on the outside. The monkey wrench in the equation is if both My Boy David and Our Lucky Killean are mainly in the race just to get a piece of the action, they will elect to save ground along the inside and hope to come up late, forcing Miller and Maltese Artist to go first over. But chances are, one of the two, either My Boy David or Our Lucky Killean, will move early on the outside giving cover for Maltese Artist. Our Lucky Killean is a puzzling horse for me. The recent speed ratings say he's got no shot yet I like his steady diet of checks on the tough OJC circuit. His recent times haven't been that great either on the big track but it's been cold up in Canada. The race-time temperature in all his most recent starts has been under 40 degrees. Our Lucky Killean is here to either pick up a check or he could be a deceptive longshot sleeper. Canadian horses have usually done pretty well in Northfield Park stakes action while horses from Balmoral Park have usually not fared so well. At any rate, Load The Dice and Mister Big will look to follow Maltese Artist on the outside. If Brett has to go first over, they become more of a threat to win. Ryan Stahl and Ataboyart will hope to come up late for fifth.
As for the back half of the race, if Maltese Artist gets bad cover or has to grind it out a long time going first over, then the race should come down to either Dodgeball and Gold Dust Beach on the inside or Load the Dice and Mister Big on the outside. Otherwise, with a good trip, Maltese Artist should eventually swoop the front end and come up late for the win.
Final Order: 5-4-8-3
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Post by BlackWater on Apr 19, 2007 22:54:33 GMT -5
Keep it simple. 5-4-1-6. Or maybe not..........
BW
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Post by jay44224 on Apr 20, 2007 10:27:08 GMT -5
I agree with Kangaroo on Dodgeball leaving and getting a pocket trip. Growing up in Northern New Jersey and frequenting tracks like Monty, Roosevelt, and Yonkers – my first trip to the Meadowlands was a very expensive learning experience. Racing at this track with what we called the long alley of death – made you change the way you handicapped races.
With that said it was very rare to see a performance like the Gold Dust Beach had in his last Start. Parked to the qtr in 26;4 by Hop Sing cleared and was immediately challenged by Allstar Bluejean and Campbell. Miller had a stranglehold trying to let Campbell clear and the horse just dug in and put him away at the half with a second qtr 26;4 in the stretch he gave him a couple of taps to keep him interested- and then with the filed closing in he worked him hard the last 100 yards and he dug in and won. All that on a track that does not favor speed. Now put him at Northfield one of the most favorable for a horse that can leave the gate and put him in the 4 hole – one of the better posts for this type horse and that is the one that gets the pick to win. Dodgeball with a pocket trip just may get the 2nd money if he can hold off the late rush by Mr. Big – who would be my top choice if the race was at the meadowlands as any horse than can come from out of it on a half like Yonkers would just out and out fly in the alley of death
Key the 4 over the 2-5-8 Good luck to all.
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Post by longshotmike on Apr 21, 2007 11:22:53 GMT -5
4 Gold Dust Beach D. Miller
8 Mr. Big G. Grismore
6 Load The Dice Y. Gingras
2 Dodge Ball A. Merriman
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Post by the believer on Apr 21, 2007 22:09:51 GMT -5
What a great battle it was Maltese Artist winning in 149.4 !
Great handicapping once again kangaroox...you predicted the winner,the exacta and if you keyed your 5-Maltese Artist on top of your picks like you posted 5-4-8-3, you have hit the tri 5-4-3........#3 Our Lucky Killean closed like a freight train to just miss the place award, remember it was a track record time 149.4 -
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