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Post by the believer on Apr 3, 2010 21:31:41 GMT -5
...Cliff and i had this horse in the contest tonight , it pays to watch last weeks races as this is one that didn't miss his next start out ... at a nice $26 win ticket  |
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Post by jimhorseman on Apr 3, 2010 22:10:30 GMT -5
Nice spot by both of you. I hope that a few real dollars were wagered on Carmel Dumpling. By the way, are you and Mrs Believer still making a Northfield trip this month?
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Post by hundredtowin on Apr 3, 2010 22:20:09 GMT -5
Nice pick - hope you guys had some real money on the horse.
I watched the replay and still would not have bet him based soley on his last race. He was gapped out by four lenths at the half, never left the rail the whole race and while he did close well, it would be expected with the trip that he had. What exactly was it that you guys saw?
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Post by the believer on Apr 4, 2010 8:10:35 GMT -5
Class , on Mar 20 th Caramel had the 8 hole in a NW300 and closed well , last start Mar 29th from PP #7 i thought he'd do better but ran into a Big Stick (the horse) and again closed well. Now in a NW200 and by now used to the outside scenery and the back of the pack i thought if he could grab cover or just circle up around them at the 3/4 pole , he would be a winner.
Horses race in cycles and Carmel's was on the upswing .I do hope Cliff ( the best harness capper ) also gives us his handicapping opinion on the race and winner Caramel Dumpling , as he is amazing at analyzing in detail
Jim , it looks like the trip to Nfld is postponed as it my wife's birthday and for some reason doesn't want to go near a racetrack !
Taylor
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Post by trackrat on Apr 4, 2010 9:46:13 GMT -5
Taylor, you can convince her that Northfield is throwing a gala bash for her, naming a race after her, etc. She'll get a chance to meet the world renowed author Keith Gisser, future Wall of Fame owner John Allen Jr and other local celebrities as she tours the Rock N Roll Hall of Fame, the House of Blues, Progressive Field, The Lake Erie Science Museum, a tour of Lake Erie and the Cuyahoga River on the Goodtime II, a visit to Amish country and a sight-seeing ride on Lolly-the-Trolly. What more could a girl want on her birthday?
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Post by the believer on Apr 4, 2010 9:56:52 GMT -5
Taylor, you can convince her that Northfield is throwing a gala bash for her, naming a race after her, etc. She'll get a chance to meet the world renowed author Keith Gisser, future Wall of Fame owner John Allen Jr and other local celebrities as she tours the Rock N Roll Hall of Fame, the House of Blues, Progressive Field, The Lake Erie Science Museum, a tour of Lake Erie and the Cuyahoga River on the Goodtime II, a visit to Amish country and a sight-seeing ride on Lolly-the-Trolly. What more could a girl want on her birthday? Hey Trackrat , i'll give it a try but i might be be explaining who that World Renowed author is ! |
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Post by cliff on Apr 4, 2010 13:07:01 GMT -5
"when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth" - Sherlock Holmes As Taylor stated, class had a lot to do with my thinking, but it was also a case of eliminating the "impossible", that is the rest of the field. Kuekin and Varitek, both moving up, have no class whatsoever. Take Five and Romance's Thunder, both have shown no winning form. Take Five had been off a month before last week, and was still sluggish at a slow paced race. Thunder missed last week, the barn change may help, but I guessed it will take a few more races before he returns to form. Bus Fare was a suck along last week, and Charles Smith only wins by accident. I like Supreme Ruler, but both his trainer's and driver's winning percentages are single digits, and he's never been much from outside posts. And Real Sexy with the snowman? I don't think I need to elaborate. That left Caramel Dumpling. The nine year old isn't what he once was, but has been solid his whole career, winning at an 18% clip. No shot in his last two from the outside in very fast races. One could also see hidden form in those races, i.e., good pace numbers. A back half in 57 last week, and a middle half of 57.1 the week before. Nothing else in this field was doing anything like that. The Robin Miller/Cal Hollar combo has been solid this year, so it's always about the horse, and if its in a spot where it can compete. In this case the stars aligned. Yes, I bet the horse with real dollars , unfortunately not the hundo I wagered on him with virtual dollars.  PS: I don't think the horse is yet in top form, that is I think he could improve even more. He will take a class jump in his next start. Don't let that dissuade you from betting him again, he can conceivably jump a couple more notches before hitting the class wall.
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