Post by cliff on Dec 8, 2006 16:07:33 GMT -5
Having troubles picking winners? We all have been there. We all play esoteric angles from time to time, including me. However, to have the best shot at picking winners, the tried and true principles still give the best chance of cashing at the windows. Here is a quick and easy way I've found to validate ones choices. I use it every card when there is some question if I should pull the trigger on a wager.
I call it a five point system. It's based upon the five (the basic four plus one I add for Northfield) handicapping factors we are all familiar with, i.e., class, form, post position, driver, and early speed. I use early speed when considering horses at Northfield. Horses lacking at least average early foot seemingly are always at a disadvantage.
For each entry we answer the following questions. If the answer is "yes" the horse gets a point. If the answer is "no" the horse gets no points. The maximum a horse can get is five, the least is zero.
1.) post position - does the horse have a positive post? Positive posts at Northfield are pp1-pp5. Pp9, although inside is still a negative at Northfield.
2.) class - is the horse among the top three or four in terms of earnings per start? For purposes of this system the horses that make the most money per start are "classier".
3.) form - has the horse been racing on a regular basis, and has he made some sort of recent move to win a race when asked? This is the hardest point to accurately assess. We have to go back to a race where the horse had a legit chance to win.
4.) driver - does the horse have one of the top drivers in the race? We know who the better drivers are. A horse is never a good bet with a less than competent driver.
5.) early speed - can the horse at least hold its position at the start in the class it's racing in? If the horse is continually racing out of a hole in its current class, he usually is not good bet.
It only takes a couple minutes to rate every horse in a race and write his number in the program margin. Most of the time the ultimate winner will be no lower than 4. There are always exceptions, especially with barn and ownership changes, but I've found it to be folly to bet a 3 when there are a couple 4's or 5's in the race. It's also a useful tool to ferret out horses that can complete a ticket. If I'm wagering an exotic I always include an outside horse with a 4. If the only issue the horse has is post, he's a must include. Similarly, an inside horse who scores a 1 is an automatic throw away.
Good luck.
I call it a five point system. It's based upon the five (the basic four plus one I add for Northfield) handicapping factors we are all familiar with, i.e., class, form, post position, driver, and early speed. I use early speed when considering horses at Northfield. Horses lacking at least average early foot seemingly are always at a disadvantage.
For each entry we answer the following questions. If the answer is "yes" the horse gets a point. If the answer is "no" the horse gets no points. The maximum a horse can get is five, the least is zero.
1.) post position - does the horse have a positive post? Positive posts at Northfield are pp1-pp5. Pp9, although inside is still a negative at Northfield.
2.) class - is the horse among the top three or four in terms of earnings per start? For purposes of this system the horses that make the most money per start are "classier".
3.) form - has the horse been racing on a regular basis, and has he made some sort of recent move to win a race when asked? This is the hardest point to accurately assess. We have to go back to a race where the horse had a legit chance to win.
4.) driver - does the horse have one of the top drivers in the race? We know who the better drivers are. A horse is never a good bet with a less than competent driver.
5.) early speed - can the horse at least hold its position at the start in the class it's racing in? If the horse is continually racing out of a hole in its current class, he usually is not good bet.
It only takes a couple minutes to rate every horse in a race and write his number in the program margin. Most of the time the ultimate winner will be no lower than 4. There are always exceptions, especially with barn and ownership changes, but I've found it to be folly to bet a 3 when there are a couple 4's or 5's in the race. It's also a useful tool to ferret out horses that can complete a ticket. If I'm wagering an exotic I always include an outside horse with a 4. If the only issue the horse has is post, he's a must include. Similarly, an inside horse who scores a 1 is an automatic throw away.
Good luck.