Post by cliff on Jan 4, 2009 16:00:45 GMT -5
Hope everyone's new year has started out grand. Just a few observations and comments about last night's (01/03) card. How frustrating it is to spend the time handicapping a card to then find out one of the top drivers, in this case Matt Kakaley, is a no show. What with all the driver changes, scratches, and unknown horses and drivers in attendance, it begs us to stay away from the windows and just watch the events unfold. Unfortunately, I've never had that kind of discipline, which is why I keep my day job.
In the new kid-on-the-block department, Kevin Hough made a very impressive showing in his Northfield debut. Two victories and three place finishes in his five drives, he looked very professional out there. I was especially impressed with his drive of trotter, Gutenberg, in the fifth race. Apparently a devotee of the Walter Case theory of racing ("a bad trip is better than no trip"), he brought the horse outside before the half, unable to flush cover, he continued on to challenge the leader, speed horse Anzio Hall. This type of grinding move is the toughest way to win a race. A couple times it looked as if the horse was done, but somehow young Kevin kept him alive. And he didn't look like a mad man in the saddle or whip mercilessly, he somehow coaxed and encouraged the horse to the victory. Speaking of Walter Case, he was one of the best at this kind of move, and somehow kept the horse moving forward. Like I said, I was impressed. Hope to see more of him in the future.
In the some things never change department, twelve of the fourteen winners last night showed a victory or close second in one of their last two starts. The two exceptions were the afore mentioned Gutenberg and the eleventh race winner, Happy Riggs. Both had third place finishes two starts back. In addition, only two winners left from negative posts, BJ's Tune in the 7th, garnered his fourth straight from the seven hole, and Free For Life picked up his third in a row from the second tier. The nine may be inside, but it's still a negative post on half milers like Northfield. Speaking about Saturday nights at Northfield, "post and form, form and post, everything thing else is secondary" I used to proclaim ad nauseam. Even with the decline of racing stock at Northfield, I guess the mantra still applies. So much for looking at long shots, especially from the outside, on Saturday night.
Speaking of Happy Riggs, third start for a new barn, first with a positive post. That's a time honored angle I completely ignored last night , even after I needed to get off my "best bet", Sadie's Soloist with the driver change to Kurt Sugg. I should have had that nice 22-1 shot. Couldn't bet anything from the outside, same thing goes for the two eleven year olds, Heez Ruthless and Oaks Enforcer. I kind of liked Spellbinder, but couldn't remember him ever making the jump in class. Sugg is seldom a good bet on pacers, especially favorites. Like I say, I should have had Riggs by process of elimination. Wyatt Irvine, the most under rated driver at Northfield, is one I really like to play when the top guys are overbet. By the way, I've got nothing against Kurt Sugg, he's an excellent horseman and an especially good trotter guy, but his record as a catch driver on pacers (not named Lite Me Up), is, let's say, undistinguished.
In the bet back book from last night is Fox Valley Jammin. With trainer Pat Melloy replacing Kakaley on Soul Redeemer, the logical choice was Jammin with my money driver Wyatt Irvine. To shorten the story, Wyatt and Jammin had mucho road trouble and still finished second. If my math is correct, he still fits the condition next week, and if his connections keep him around, he is worth a long look. Eight to one last night. We can only pray to get those odds again.
A couple other tidbits from last night: seven of the fourteen winners went gate to wire. All but four of the winners left well enough to at least defend their post position start by the quarter pole. Example, a horse leaving from the four hole is at least fourth by the quarter (I'll give him credit for a fifth place start in a nine horse field) The four with less than stellar early foot were the two trotters, Gutenberg and Going Hollywood (trotters seem to defy logic anyway), Free For Life, from the second tier, who was outside, sixth at the quarter (the nine needs to be third or fourth to have defended his post position), and the finale's winner, Townline Powerful, who benefited from an early speed duel. This just points out how important early speed is at Northfield, as well as other half milers. Now some may say that the track was simply biased towards the front end last night. Folks, from my perspective, half milers are always front end biased. The short straight aways and four tight turns in the race give a big advantage to horses who can be forwardly placed early. If a horse doesn't have enough gate speed to at least defend its position for the class he's entered, he is at a big disadvantage.
Contrast Northfield with the Meadowlands, which I happened to also watch last night. I would have to check the charts to be sure, but I don't recall a single winner who was on the lead at the first quarter call. In fact it seemed that the worst place for a horse to be was on the lead at the half. The winners came from those who broke cover near the three quarter pole and had the gas to get them home. Same weather and track conditions at both venues.
On a side note, I was amused (and impressed) by a drive last evening by Cat Manzi. Cat had a less than even money favorite in one of the later races. He dutifully put the horse in the lead past the half. He then sat there in the bike like a statue while three or four others went around him as the final turn approached. I thought to myself, "well the horse just doesn't have it tonight" and "the chalk players are going to be miffed that Cat didn't put up any fight to keep the lead". Well once they made the final turn, and the field spread out a bit, Cat snapped the lines a couple times, and did a little tappy tap with his whip. The horse grabbed a gear, regained the lead in about ten strides, won by clear lengths in 1:49 and a piece. Wow, now there is a driver who both knows and has complete confidence in his horse's ability.
In the new kid-on-the-block department, Kevin Hough made a very impressive showing in his Northfield debut. Two victories and three place finishes in his five drives, he looked very professional out there. I was especially impressed with his drive of trotter, Gutenberg, in the fifth race. Apparently a devotee of the Walter Case theory of racing ("a bad trip is better than no trip"), he brought the horse outside before the half, unable to flush cover, he continued on to challenge the leader, speed horse Anzio Hall. This type of grinding move is the toughest way to win a race. A couple times it looked as if the horse was done, but somehow young Kevin kept him alive. And he didn't look like a mad man in the saddle or whip mercilessly, he somehow coaxed and encouraged the horse to the victory. Speaking of Walter Case, he was one of the best at this kind of move, and somehow kept the horse moving forward. Like I said, I was impressed. Hope to see more of him in the future.
In the some things never change department, twelve of the fourteen winners last night showed a victory or close second in one of their last two starts. The two exceptions were the afore mentioned Gutenberg and the eleventh race winner, Happy Riggs. Both had third place finishes two starts back. In addition, only two winners left from negative posts, BJ's Tune in the 7th, garnered his fourth straight from the seven hole, and Free For Life picked up his third in a row from the second tier. The nine may be inside, but it's still a negative post on half milers like Northfield. Speaking about Saturday nights at Northfield, "post and form, form and post, everything thing else is secondary" I used to proclaim ad nauseam. Even with the decline of racing stock at Northfield, I guess the mantra still applies. So much for looking at long shots, especially from the outside, on Saturday night.
Speaking of Happy Riggs, third start for a new barn, first with a positive post. That's a time honored angle I completely ignored last night , even after I needed to get off my "best bet", Sadie's Soloist with the driver change to Kurt Sugg. I should have had that nice 22-1 shot. Couldn't bet anything from the outside, same thing goes for the two eleven year olds, Heez Ruthless and Oaks Enforcer. I kind of liked Spellbinder, but couldn't remember him ever making the jump in class. Sugg is seldom a good bet on pacers, especially favorites. Like I say, I should have had Riggs by process of elimination. Wyatt Irvine, the most under rated driver at Northfield, is one I really like to play when the top guys are overbet. By the way, I've got nothing against Kurt Sugg, he's an excellent horseman and an especially good trotter guy, but his record as a catch driver on pacers (not named Lite Me Up), is, let's say, undistinguished.
In the bet back book from last night is Fox Valley Jammin. With trainer Pat Melloy replacing Kakaley on Soul Redeemer, the logical choice was Jammin with my money driver Wyatt Irvine. To shorten the story, Wyatt and Jammin had mucho road trouble and still finished second. If my math is correct, he still fits the condition next week, and if his connections keep him around, he is worth a long look. Eight to one last night. We can only pray to get those odds again.
A couple other tidbits from last night: seven of the fourteen winners went gate to wire. All but four of the winners left well enough to at least defend their post position start by the quarter pole. Example, a horse leaving from the four hole is at least fourth by the quarter (I'll give him credit for a fifth place start in a nine horse field) The four with less than stellar early foot were the two trotters, Gutenberg and Going Hollywood (trotters seem to defy logic anyway), Free For Life, from the second tier, who was outside, sixth at the quarter (the nine needs to be third or fourth to have defended his post position), and the finale's winner, Townline Powerful, who benefited from an early speed duel. This just points out how important early speed is at Northfield, as well as other half milers. Now some may say that the track was simply biased towards the front end last night. Folks, from my perspective, half milers are always front end biased. The short straight aways and four tight turns in the race give a big advantage to horses who can be forwardly placed early. If a horse doesn't have enough gate speed to at least defend its position for the class he's entered, he is at a big disadvantage.
Contrast Northfield with the Meadowlands, which I happened to also watch last night. I would have to check the charts to be sure, but I don't recall a single winner who was on the lead at the first quarter call. In fact it seemed that the worst place for a horse to be was on the lead at the half. The winners came from those who broke cover near the three quarter pole and had the gas to get them home. Same weather and track conditions at both venues.
On a side note, I was amused (and impressed) by a drive last evening by Cat Manzi. Cat had a less than even money favorite in one of the later races. He dutifully put the horse in the lead past the half. He then sat there in the bike like a statue while three or four others went around him as the final turn approached. I thought to myself, "well the horse just doesn't have it tonight" and "the chalk players are going to be miffed that Cat didn't put up any fight to keep the lead". Well once they made the final turn, and the field spread out a bit, Cat snapped the lines a couple times, and did a little tappy tap with his whip. The horse grabbed a gear, regained the lead in about ten strides, won by clear lengths in 1:49 and a piece. Wow, now there is a driver who both knows and has complete confidence in his horse's ability.