Derby analysis for what it's worth

[jay44224]

Kentucky Derby (from the rail out)

#1 Cool Coal Man – not a lot to like here- overmatched in my opinion
#2 Tale Of Ekati – sporadic- has some ability- don’t think he can win but could hit the super
#3 Anak Nakal – not sure why he is here – but if Zito sent him I will use him in the super for 4th
#4 Court Vision – has raced wide a lot in his career and has finish – a threat to win it all
#5 Eight Belles – sharp filly – can’t count her out – don’t think she is this good- time will tell
#6 Z Fortune – improved quite a bit with Albarado – may be peaking at the right time
#7 Big Truck – can’t see this one getting a check
#8 Visionare – has a big shot here- last race was pretty impressive- he can race
#9 Pyro – Played this one heavily in the early pools- excuse in last – could win – but seems to have lost something – use in exotics
#10 Colonel John – sharp right now the horse to beat – my choice to win
#11 Z humor – he falls into the category of big truck – I am tossing this one
#12 Smooth air – peaking at the right time –will use underneath in tri’s
#13 Bob Black Jack – tough one that could win this at a big price – don’t overlook his chances
#14 Monba - not sure what to make of this one – would toss him completely if not for Pletcher
#15 Adriano – has yet to put 2 decent back to back efforts may use him for 4ht
#16 Denis Of Cork – in tough – would surprise me if he did well here
#17 Cowboy Cal – fits in the same category as his stable mate Monba- can this one handle the surface?
#18 Recapturetheglory – has yet to face a field like this – I will toss
#19 Gayego – capable and should hit the ticket
#20 Big Brown – hard not to like this one – he is green put capable- post a concern- just may run off and hide

My selections 10- 20 – 4 - 8

[tautog]

My wacky picks

#4 Court Vision - knows how to close in a crowded field
#14 Monba Dominquez chose him over the filly
#15 Adriano Prado chose him over Monba
#10 Colonel John Hard to throw out bullet work at CD

It's been 80 years since a horse won post 20 there is a bunch of speed inside of him will have to be much the best to win this.

Tomorrow we know how foolish my picks are lol.

[sulkyhaven]

Box the 4 - 6 - 9 - 10 - 20

Big Brown is a nice horse but the outside hole, the crescendo of crowd noise and the fact that he loses all that ground from the start is not a good sign. But, on the other hand, this is exactly the kind of horse that could take a triple crown in a weak year.

[longshotmike]

1-#10 Colonel John-in peak form

2-#12 Smooth Air-could win, his style fits this race, don't overlook

3-#20 Big Brown-A Monster...post is the only concern

4-#8 Visionaire-last race was huge

Honorable Mentions,
#9 Pyro, not sure what to make out of his last race,he wasn't exatly on fire ;D

[thegiss]

I am boycotting the Derby. If the Chruchill horsemen feel greedy enough to withold the balance of the card to ADW's, I will not support the one race they have permitted me to wager.

Frankly, I hope they choke on their reduced handle.

End of rant

[longshotmike]

End Of Rant

Sounds like a future Derby Horse to me!! ;D

[longtimeplayer]

Even though I refuse to bet on a race with 20 horses here is my Derby pick.

6. Z Fortune and 9. Pyro will be closing late.

12. Smooth Air for the show spot.

19. Gayego to beat Big Brown for fourth.

Way too many horses, field should be limited to 12. Big Brown has great beyer numbers but the 20 post and only his 4th lifetime start ?
I will wait for the Preakness, good luck to all.

[the believer]

Congrats to all who had winner Big Brown ( looks like a triple crown champion )

sad note ...second place finisher #5 Eight Belles the filly was euthanized after the race- she had shattered both front ankles

[sulkyhaven]

That ride was very impressive. I'm happy for Rick Dutrow....I worked for his Dad back in the 70's for a couple of seasons at Bowie. Great horseman...

[longtimeplayer]

;D What an impressive race for Big Brown. Not only will he be 2-5 in The Preakness and more than likely win it, looks like a triple crown champion could be crowned with the weak group he is up against. My condolences to the filly and her connections, horrible way to end an impressive race she had.

[trackrat]

Any time I watch a race, even if I win a ton of money on it, it's really a downer to see any horse break down and be euthanized. These magnificient animals bring so much enjoyment to us, it's too bad that they all cannot live into a nice retirement.

Question for anyone more knowledgeable about t-breds. The news reports say that the filly was fine crosssing the finish line, but when the jockey STOOD UP, she started to get unsteady and then her ankles snapped. Is it possible that the act of standing up, which redistributes the jockey's weight, could have been the factor in her ankles breaking? Just wondering. From watching the races, it seems like every jockey stands up after the finish line to slow his horse down and trot them out.

[sulkyhaven]

Sometimes, the horse will slammed the lead hoof hard when the jock stands. I don't know if there is any closeup video that shows what the filly did. BTW, was anyone or any horse hurt in the 4th at Northfield?

[tautog]

After reading numerous articles the past 24 hours on this subject I can only come to this conclusion as a novice and not one in the business. The filly had cracks in her legs before the race started and unless they had done some medically advanced scanning of her (rare) this could have happened any time. There is an interesting article in the NY Times about this I'm pasting the article in. I don't care if it's a 2,000 claimer or a premier horse this always saddens me also. The accident Saturday night at NF had me praying for those horses. One was bucking like a bronco but I knew he was ok was more concerned about the others.

May 5, 2008
Confusion and Sorrow for Trainer of Filly
By JOE DRAPE

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Larry Jones has watched the replay dozens of times. He has examined photographs of Eight Belles, and he still cannot fathom how the filly he trained was at one moment crossing the finish line in second place in the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby, and then in the next, she was gone.

Jones was proud of Eight Belles as she stormed down the stretch, chasing the winner, Big Brown, a powerful colt. He is now heartbroken after she shattered her front ankles as she galloped out around the far turn and had to be euthanized on the racetrack. Mostly, however, he is mystified.

“We have some photographers that we really got to know last year,” said Jones, who finished second here last year with Hard Spun. “They were on the first turn taking pictures as everybody was galloping out.

“We’ve got a lot of great pictures, they say, of her, and she’s got her ears up and was not in any kind of distress galloping out around the turn. I don’t know what happened and when. Just all of the sudden, it just went.”

Two years ago, Barbaro’s breakdown in the Preakness and his death later helped usher in an era of synthetic racing surfaces. The composition of these racetracks was designed to provide more cushion. The surface was installed at Keeneland in Lexington, Ky.; Arlington Park in Chicago; and at racetracks in California.

But Churchill Downs Inc., which owns Arlington Park, has not embraced the move to a synthetic surface here at its flagship racetrack and home of America’s most famous horse race. In fact, horsemen have come to expect the oval to be hard and fast on Derby day. While the Derby was not run unusually fast Saturday, the times for races on the undercard were very fast and suggest that stakes-caliber horses were rocketing along on a speed-aiding surface. In the Grade I Humana Distaff, eight fillies and mares battled through fast factions over seven furlongs in a race won by Intangaroo in a brisk 1 minute 22.03 seconds.

“We like the racetrack we have right now,” said John Asher, a spokesman for Churchill Downs. “We’re studying the synthetic surfaces, but we want to see data for four or five years because the technology is evolving all the time. We want to know exactly what we’re getting.”

Early results from studies of the safety of synthetic tracks versus dirt ones are promising but inconclusive. Dr. Mary Scollay, a veterinarian at Calder Race Course, organized an equine injury reporting system for more than 30 tracks and has found that fatality rates have been lower on synthetic surfaces: 1.47 fatalities per 1,000 starts for synthetic surfaces against 2.03 per 1,000 for dirt tracks.

“The revised statistics are based upon injury reports from a limited number of racetracks and represent a reporting period of less than one year at some racetracks,” Scollay reported to the Welfare and Safety of the Racehorse Summit, which is coordinated by the Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation.

“Therefore, it is important to remember that these fatality rates are just a snapshot in time from a less than statistically significant number of tracks, and cannot be considered scientifically conclusive at this point.”

Dr. Larry Bramlage, an equine surgeon who was the American Association of Equine Practitioners’ on-call veterinarian at the Derby, said it appeared that Eight Belles’s injuries would not have been prevented on a synthetic surface.

“I don’t think the forces on her legs pulling up would be any different on dirt or artificial surface,” Bramlage said.

John Ward, a third-generation horseman who trained the 2001 Derby winner, Monarchos, says the industry must continue working on technologies that can screen horses more closely before they go into competition.

He told a story of a 3-year-old filly who was promising as a 2-year-old but had not seemed to be her best. An early set of X-rays did not show any injuries. When Ward sent her to the Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital for more sophisticated full-body tests, veterinarians found she had microfractures in three of her ankles.

“She was a catastrophe waiting to happen, and she had never spent an unsound day in her life,” Ward said. “We have got to start examining these animals at the molecular level, and protect them.”

For Jones and his staff, sad days are ahead without Eight Belles. They leave Monday with the Kentucky Oaks winner Proud Spell to Delaware Park, where he is based. In fact, Jones had three horses competing there Sunday.

“Your first impulse is to be overprotective of everything you’re around, but with them being an athlete, you’ve got to still do the business and do it right,” Jones said. “I have 48 horses in Delaware. You’ve got to get to business as normal. We’re not scratching those other three, afraid to lead them over. Are we going to be overjubilant and all? No, it’s going to be very depressing for several days around here. We’re going to do the work because we have to, not because it’s going to be fun to do.”

[thegiss]

First off, nobody hurt here in the 4th Saturday.
It appeared to me that the filly took a bad step about 8-10 jumps past the wire-- very evident on the overhead shot. If the right ankle went at that time, but not catastrophically, she would have tried to get all her weight on the left in the next jump and that stress probably caused the injury there. I do not believe she destroyed both ankles simultaneously and catastrophically, but that there was a cause and affect.

[trackrat]

And now PETA wants to suspend the jockey, abolish the use of the whip and mandate softer racing surfaces. Makes me want a big, greasy triple cheeseburger!!