Post by cliff on Jul 23, 2008 18:04:04 GMT -5
Trying to scrape some rust off and get back into the game.
I was giving tonight's card a look. The ninth race looked interesting from this handicappers point of view. Only seven horses going to post with a couple easy throw aways, shouldn't be such a difficult task to pick a winner.
The #7 has no post or driver; the #6 also with a negative post and wins less than 5% of the time. These two are easily discarded.
The rail horse is moving up without winning out of the lower class; the #3 is out of shape; ditto with the #5 despite the drop in class.
That leaves the #2 Sandy's Noble Star,and #4 Sharp Outlaw to consider.
The Outlaw is the morning line favorite. The horse was found wanting as the favorite the last time out from the rail. Aaron Merriman had the horse on the front end for three quarters, seemed to be rating the horse well given the rather modest fractions. The horse gave it up in the stretch and was passed by three for a fourth place finish. He showed little the race before in the same class as tonight. Merriman back is a plus, but it strikes me odd he should be the morning line favorite.
Up Front Racer on the other hand had no post or chance last time out against arguably a better group than he is facing tonight. Some quick math reveals he paced a 57.3 middle half after a poor start. (not sure anything else in the race tonight has a recent comparable line. He also was just two lengths slower at the wire (from post 8) that night than Sharp Outlaw who drew the rail.
The 07/07 line shows a first over attempt from the second tier. Throw out 06/30 line with Tony Peregrin in the bike. Three starts from poor posts and off tracks preceded those.
Not blessed with great early speed, Up Front does have enough to leave against this rather suspect group. His main competition only has average gate speed himself, and Matt Kakaley did put the horse on the front end back in April when he had an inside post.
Now for the best part, the morning line handicapper has Up Front at 6-1.
For my money this is the horse to beat. Will the early line hold? Time will tell. If it does this could be the value play of the night.
PS: I really like the 9/1 late double. I think Merriman wins both races rather handily.
I was giving tonight's card a look. The ninth race looked interesting from this handicappers point of view. Only seven horses going to post with a couple easy throw aways, shouldn't be such a difficult task to pick a winner.
The #7 has no post or driver; the #6 also with a negative post and wins less than 5% of the time. These two are easily discarded.
The rail horse is moving up without winning out of the lower class; the #3 is out of shape; ditto with the #5 despite the drop in class.
That leaves the #2 Sandy's Noble Star,and #4 Sharp Outlaw to consider.
The Outlaw is the morning line favorite. The horse was found wanting as the favorite the last time out from the rail. Aaron Merriman had the horse on the front end for three quarters, seemed to be rating the horse well given the rather modest fractions. The horse gave it up in the stretch and was passed by three for a fourth place finish. He showed little the race before in the same class as tonight. Merriman back is a plus, but it strikes me odd he should be the morning line favorite.
Up Front Racer on the other hand had no post or chance last time out against arguably a better group than he is facing tonight. Some quick math reveals he paced a 57.3 middle half after a poor start. (not sure anything else in the race tonight has a recent comparable line. He also was just two lengths slower at the wire (from post 8) that night than Sharp Outlaw who drew the rail.
The 07/07 line shows a first over attempt from the second tier. Throw out 06/30 line with Tony Peregrin in the bike. Three starts from poor posts and off tracks preceded those.
Not blessed with great early speed, Up Front does have enough to leave against this rather suspect group. His main competition only has average gate speed himself, and Matt Kakaley did put the horse on the front end back in April when he had an inside post.
Now for the best part, the morning line handicapper has Up Front at 6-1.
For my money this is the horse to beat. Will the early line hold? Time will tell. If it does this could be the value play of the night.PS: I really like the 9/1 late double. I think Merriman wins both races rather handily.
