Post by cliff on Aug 9, 2008 10:53:15 GMT -5
Whenever I find it difficult to pick winners (like now) I go back to the basics using a simple six point system which rates each horse. This KISS (keep it simple, socrates) system takes personal bias out of the equation and reminds me not to over think the whole process. After all, the horses are what they are (not what I remember them being a year or two ago), inside posts are an advantage. horses without early speed are at a definite disadvantage at Northfield (most other half milers as well), the better drivers will give their horses the best chance of winning, and so forth.
I award one point for each of the following handicapping factors:
post position (positive post? yes or no)
class (one of the top three money earners per start)
driver (one of the top three drivers in the race)
form (makes a move to challenge or win a race in previous start or two)
early speed (gains spots at the start of the race)
pace (makes a move during the fastest segment of the race)
The top possible score is 6 points - not too many get that rating. Most winners come from scores of 4 or 5. A probable winner will have at least 4 points and have a two point gap over the next highest horse. Horses with 1 or 0 points generally don't hit the board. Ties go to the horse with the better post.
Here are the ratings for tonight's (August 9) races with a some comments on how I interpret the scores.
Race 1
#3 Dublin Dollars- 5
#2 Handsome Harley - 3
#4 Lo And Behold - 3
#6 Scoremania - 2
#1 I Will Come Over- 1
#5 Golden Glove - 1
#7 Keystone Victory - 0
#8 Ratehike - 0
Except for the fact this is a trot, and Dublin Dollars is the morning line favorite, he would be the play having scored a 5 and a two point advantage over the competition.
Race 2
#1 Where's My Toy- 4
#2 Wocko The Beaut N - 3
#5 Go For It - 3
#7 Crop Support N - 3
#4 Wild Day- 2
#3 Ryans Hall - 1
#6 Scoot For Glory - 1
Where's My Toy rates an edge, but will be the favorite and probably overplayed. It's a pass for me.
Race 3
#1 Riblet- 4
#3 Black Oliver - 4
#2 Swift Blade - 2
#4 KCC Thunder - 2
#5 Paper Magic- 2
#8 Lashas Last - 2
#6 Black Shoals - 0
#7 Ashley Flash - 0
The #1 and #3 are equally rated, neither is a standout. Based upon the morning line, I'd be inclined to take a flier on #3 Black Oliver if he's the second choice among the bettors
Race 4
#2 Chisum- 5
#3 Allamerican Viper - 5
#6 E C K - 4
#1 Townline Powerful - 3
#4 Sultan Desbi- 3
#5 Rapport Hanover - 3
#9 Red Stingray - 2
#8 Eagle Tack - 1
#7 Snows Bangert Boy - 0
A close call here; ML favorite is vulnerable. Merriman will be overplayed. Chisum will be the overlay and get my money if the 6-1 holds.
Race 5
#1 Chust Chudy- 5
#2 Nickie K - 5
#4 Hogue's Rocket - 3
#5 Kosher Winner - 3
#6 Pine Hill Jewel- 3
#8 Mighty Looker - 3
#3 Miss Erica - 1
#7 Iverman - 0
Even though two trotters are equally rated, the #1 looks too sharp to beat from the rail. Can't play against her, no value betting her.
Race 6
#2 Western Outfitter- 6
#4 Jays Debut N - 4
#3 Go Bogart - 3
#1 Cunning Desighn - 2
#5 Rella's Trick- 2
#6 Dragon Smoke - 2
#7 I Ride western - 2
#8 Osborne's Bullet - 1
Western Outfitter is the only 6 pointer on tonight's card, and with a two point advantage over the morning line favorite. It's just a question of price. Merriman will probably end up at the favorite.
Race 7
#3 Son Ofa Spur- 5
#5 Fessup Fred - 4
#1 Spit Happens - 3
#6 Loos Like Danny - 3
#2 Mary My King- 2
#5 R U A Looker - 2
#8 Doc's Linda - 2
#9 Bustamante - 2
#7 Smok'n Coalburner - 1
Another trot: could get a price on Merriman for a change, Stahl's horse is rounding into form, however.
Race 8
#5 Perfect Door- 5
#4 No Risk - 4
#6 Dan Chaz - 3
#1 Coal Black Beauty - 2
#2 Karbonator- 2
#7 Western Empire - 2
#8 Mr Kite - 2
#3 Heez Ruthless N - 1
This is the kind of race one might be able to make some hay. Top rated horses are 8-1 and 10-1 on morning line. The ML favorite doesn't rate a mention in my system. The rail horse will garner its share of the betting dollars.
Race 9
#5 Lucca's Revenge- 5
#2 This Sands Hot - 4
#1 Motown Boogie - 3
#3 Ask For Gold - 3
#4 Yankee Sherwood- 1
#6 Giulio - 1
#7 Dunkster - 1
Off the lame scratch I doubt Dunkster will end up the favorite. I shy away from trots, but 3rd start off the scratch, Lucca's early speed will probably go unchallenged. He looks like the winner here.
Race 10
#4 Nuclear Cam- 4
#3 Oneforthepresident - 3
#6 Forever Nugget - 3
#2 Camarkable - 2
#7 Knockout Sahbra- 2
#3 Farbe - 1
#7 Powercord - 1
#8 Happy Riggs - 1
#9 Cam Bo Informal - 1
Top rated horse is not a stand out; this is a race to stay away from.
Race 11
#1 Spastic- 5
#5 Sun Set Acres Troy - 5
#2 Northern Raucous - 4
#3 Kevin T Busch - 4
#4 Laughing Is An Art- 3
#7 Lite Me Up - 2
#6 Well Bet - 1
Too close to call among the top four.
Race 12
#2 Up Front Guy- 5
#1 Dignity's Triumph - 3
#4 Slade Gram - 3
#3 Search The Falcon - 2
#5 Class Worker- 2
#7 Three Sox Missing - 2
#8 Stand N Shout - 2
#6 Forte Blue Chip - 1
Up Front Guy has two points on the competition. He's the play unless overbet.
Race 13
#1 The Big Wazzoo- 2
#2 Covered Connection - 2
#3 Sometimes Eternal - 2
#4 Blue My Mind - 2
#5 Nukes Fortunation- 2
#7 JD's Houdini - 2
#8 Armbro Deck - 1
#9 Noble Moe's First - 1
#6 Delivered Rules - 0
This is what we call one ugly race. Count your money after the 12th and go home.
Good Luck
I award one point for each of the following handicapping factors:
post position (positive post? yes or no)
class (one of the top three money earners per start)
driver (one of the top three drivers in the race)
form (makes a move to challenge or win a race in previous start or two)
early speed (gains spots at the start of the race)
pace (makes a move during the fastest segment of the race)
The top possible score is 6 points - not too many get that rating. Most winners come from scores of 4 or 5. A probable winner will have at least 4 points and have a two point gap over the next highest horse. Horses with 1 or 0 points generally don't hit the board. Ties go to the horse with the better post.
Here are the ratings for tonight's (August 9) races with a some comments on how I interpret the scores.
Race 1
#3 Dublin Dollars- 5
#2 Handsome Harley - 3
#4 Lo And Behold - 3
#6 Scoremania - 2
#1 I Will Come Over- 1
#5 Golden Glove - 1
#7 Keystone Victory - 0
#8 Ratehike - 0
Except for the fact this is a trot, and Dublin Dollars is the morning line favorite, he would be the play having scored a 5 and a two point advantage over the competition.
Race 2
#1 Where's My Toy- 4
#2 Wocko The Beaut N - 3
#5 Go For It - 3
#7 Crop Support N - 3
#4 Wild Day- 2
#3 Ryans Hall - 1
#6 Scoot For Glory - 1
Where's My Toy rates an edge, but will be the favorite and probably overplayed. It's a pass for me.
Race 3
#1 Riblet- 4
#3 Black Oliver - 4
#2 Swift Blade - 2
#4 KCC Thunder - 2
#5 Paper Magic- 2
#8 Lashas Last - 2
#6 Black Shoals - 0
#7 Ashley Flash - 0
The #1 and #3 are equally rated, neither is a standout. Based upon the morning line, I'd be inclined to take a flier on #3 Black Oliver if he's the second choice among the bettors
Race 4
#2 Chisum- 5
#3 Allamerican Viper - 5
#6 E C K - 4
#1 Townline Powerful - 3
#4 Sultan Desbi- 3
#5 Rapport Hanover - 3
#9 Red Stingray - 2
#8 Eagle Tack - 1
#7 Snows Bangert Boy - 0
A close call here; ML favorite is vulnerable. Merriman will be overplayed. Chisum will be the overlay and get my money if the 6-1 holds.
Race 5
#1 Chust Chudy- 5
#2 Nickie K - 5
#4 Hogue's Rocket - 3
#5 Kosher Winner - 3
#6 Pine Hill Jewel- 3
#8 Mighty Looker - 3
#3 Miss Erica - 1
#7 Iverman - 0
Even though two trotters are equally rated, the #1 looks too sharp to beat from the rail. Can't play against her, no value betting her.
Race 6
#2 Western Outfitter- 6
#4 Jays Debut N - 4
#3 Go Bogart - 3
#1 Cunning Desighn - 2
#5 Rella's Trick- 2
#6 Dragon Smoke - 2
#7 I Ride western - 2
#8 Osborne's Bullet - 1
Western Outfitter is the only 6 pointer on tonight's card, and with a two point advantage over the morning line favorite. It's just a question of price. Merriman will probably end up at the favorite.
Race 7
#3 Son Ofa Spur- 5
#5 Fessup Fred - 4
#1 Spit Happens - 3
#6 Loos Like Danny - 3
#2 Mary My King- 2
#5 R U A Looker - 2
#8 Doc's Linda - 2
#9 Bustamante - 2
#7 Smok'n Coalburner - 1
Another trot: could get a price on Merriman for a change, Stahl's horse is rounding into form, however.
Race 8
#5 Perfect Door- 5
#4 No Risk - 4
#6 Dan Chaz - 3
#1 Coal Black Beauty - 2
#2 Karbonator- 2
#7 Western Empire - 2
#8 Mr Kite - 2
#3 Heez Ruthless N - 1
This is the kind of race one might be able to make some hay. Top rated horses are 8-1 and 10-1 on morning line. The ML favorite doesn't rate a mention in my system. The rail horse will garner its share of the betting dollars.
Race 9
#5 Lucca's Revenge- 5
#2 This Sands Hot - 4
#1 Motown Boogie - 3
#3 Ask For Gold - 3
#4 Yankee Sherwood- 1
#6 Giulio - 1
#7 Dunkster - 1
Off the lame scratch I doubt Dunkster will end up the favorite. I shy away from trots, but 3rd start off the scratch, Lucca's early speed will probably go unchallenged. He looks like the winner here.
Race 10
#4 Nuclear Cam- 4
#3 Oneforthepresident - 3
#6 Forever Nugget - 3
#2 Camarkable - 2
#7 Knockout Sahbra- 2
#3 Farbe - 1
#7 Powercord - 1
#8 Happy Riggs - 1
#9 Cam Bo Informal - 1
Top rated horse is not a stand out; this is a race to stay away from.
Race 11
#1 Spastic- 5
#5 Sun Set Acres Troy - 5
#2 Northern Raucous - 4
#3 Kevin T Busch - 4
#4 Laughing Is An Art- 3
#7 Lite Me Up - 2
#6 Well Bet - 1
Too close to call among the top four.
Race 12
#2 Up Front Guy- 5
#1 Dignity's Triumph - 3
#4 Slade Gram - 3
#3 Search The Falcon - 2
#5 Class Worker- 2
#7 Three Sox Missing - 2
#8 Stand N Shout - 2
#6 Forte Blue Chip - 1
Up Front Guy has two points on the competition. He's the play unless overbet.
Race 13
#1 The Big Wazzoo- 2
#2 Covered Connection - 2
#3 Sometimes Eternal - 2
#4 Blue My Mind - 2
#5 Nukes Fortunation- 2
#7 JD's Houdini - 2
#8 Armbro Deck - 1
#9 Noble Moe's First - 1
#6 Delivered Rules - 0
This is what we call one ugly race. Count your money after the 12th and go home.
Good Luck