Wednesday's Winners

[cliff]

Selections for Wednesday August 13.

Race 1

#2 Emile Agnus- she may fair better for her new barn
#3 Tough Bananas - nice early speed, she'll be in good position
#1 Roger Wilco - beaten favorite becoming a habit
#6 Bashful - will have to wait for a better post

Race 2

#2 Lady Luck Cruiser - moves inside, 2nd time lasix
#1 Sadie Falcon - has been a touch short
#3 Unity Road - first time Kakaley, softer group
#5 Dragoninthekash -

Race 3

#3 Potions And Spells - perfect spot, should be no excuse
#7 Hez A Titan - a flat rip puts this one on the board
#4 Moneyman - another one that needs to stay on gait
#1 Gameboy Eden - needs the rail to be competitive

Race 4

#6 Little Towner - major driver change for the class dropper
#3 Miss Matilda - a repeat effort gets repeat results
#2 American Thighs - improving
#5 Ever Berries - to borrow a phrase from the giss, wildly inconsistent

Race 5

#3 C G Dancer - liked him last week, best post in a while
#6 Osbornes Jet - 0 for the season, could break through tonight
#2 Corrigal N - another with an 0-fer, is better than that
#4 Paper Magic - sharp

Race 6

#2 Shesa Partygirl - if she leaves at all, she wins
#4 Handsome Jack- continues his on-the-board efforts
#1 CG Rain Princess - has the speed to compete with these
#5 Pink Water Emile - stakes filly has potential


Race 7

#3 Dontsayno - over his head at Indy, faces very suspect field tonight
#2 Noble Win - perhaps the best here, form is suspect
#5 Perrito -
#4 Tally Ho Don -

Race 8

#3 Water Twice - new life for this old class pacer
#5 Riccafella Center - still dangerous, may be the early leader again
#6 Tato Tato - doesn't normally win from this far out
#8 Lonesome Fella - I overlooked this veteran last time, not tonight

Race 9

#5 AAJ - will lose one of these days, just don't think it's tonight
#1 Billy Bobs Scooter- that Bucyrus line is impressive
#7 Hall Sign - all this ones ever needed was a driver
#4 Scottish Operative - on the board a lot recently

Race 10

#2 Seaworthy - too much class for this group
#1 Photo Enlarement - won't need to do much for that place check tonight
#5 Hoofner - 3-1 last time from this spot, can compete with these
#3 President Pine - gets a real driver tonight, is it enough?

Race 11

#1 Eagle Tack - no excuse with this group
#3 Liftoff Bayama - the Kakaley factor
#2 Soul Redeemer - can't argue with his early speed
#4 Bandy - another who will leave for position

Race 12

#4 Blue My Mind - 3rd start back, should win on class alone
#1 Nicearaider - sharp one has the rail
#5 Up Front Racer - the positive post will help
#2 Chief Thunder Thud - new barn

Race 13

#3 Hezamagicman - no claimers in this group
#2 Capitol Source - best early speed in the group
#6 Pennys Arsonist - on the comeback trail, looking better
#9 Royal Tattler - not thrilled with the post draw

Good Luck

[longshotmike]

Aug 12, 2008 19:40:15 GMT -5 cliff said:

Selections for Wednesday August 13.

]

#4 Blue My Mind - 3rd start back, should win on class alone

The last two races have looked awful for this one, I don't think the class drop even helps. With that being said he'll probably go wire to wire ;D

[cliff]

I hear you, Mike, and I don't disagree, except one needs to take into account the "try" factor. I don't think they were trying with the horse the first two times out especially last week on the sloppy track. He had some sort of problem they were working on. Even so, calculate his back halves in the last two "training" runs. My hunch is he will be ready this time, and against this field he won't be touched.

"Class wins the cheapies" is a mantra I've often extolled. Now that the racing at Northfield has degraded to the lowest level I can remember, it's even more true. The class dropper that is racing even half way decently, generally is the winner now days.

[jimhorseman]

Cliff:

Loved that you mentioned "calculate his back halves" in your response to Mike. Although it is monotonous and time consuming I calculate the back halves for every line for every horse in a program I am handicapping. The back half time a horse ran (not the last half time of the race unless the horse was leading at the half and won) is a crucial part of a speed rating I do for each horse in a race. A nice angle I have had decent success with is using a horse underneath in exotics that has a negative post (6-8) but the best average last half closing times. These horses generally go off at long odds and often come charging late to be part of a ticket. I'll also use those horses in pick partial wheels. It is an inexpensive way to use a double digit outside horse and when these horses do win it all but guarantees a high return pick mutual.

[thegiss]

Aug 12, 2008 21:01:25 GMT -5 cliff said:

I hear you, Mike, and I don't disagree, except one needs to take into account the "try" factor. I don't think they were trying with the horse the first two times out especially last week on the sloppy track. He had some sort of problem they were working on. Even so, calculate his back halves in the last two "training" runs. My hunch is he will be ready this time, and against this field he won't be touched.

"Class wins the cheapies" is a mantra I've often extolled. Now that the racing at Northfield has degraded to the lowest level I can remember, it's even more true. The class dropper that is racing even half way decently, generally is the winner now days.

Cliff- Watch her last race again and you may change your mind. I really like this mare, but she has looked lame the last two starts. Crist starterd her rolling last week and then had to grab her and hold her together. I have to agree with Mike on this.

[cliff]

Alas, I didn't see the race I'll defer to guys' judgements.