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Post by the believer on Nov 5, 2006 10:08:46 GMT -5
RACE 4-looking at this race,it features many horse's from Cliff's watch list and other members choice selections in the past two weeks.
#1-Just an Icon.....if he's 10-1 off odds,maybe i will remember to wager win first.lol
#2-Blast the Siren...inside ,sharp ,Grismore
#3-That Noble Magic
#4-Hoosier Tiger,picks up the driving services of the talented Tony Hall
#5-Foreveranever
#6-Elegant Dude K
#7-Medoland Bud
#8-Ryans Hall
#9-PH Cruiser-Conger driving,what's that telling us?
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Post by cliff on Nov 5, 2006 11:10:14 GMT -5
Are you soliciting opinions on this race?  |
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Post by the believer on Nov 5, 2006 11:43:43 GMT -5
Are you soliciting opinions on this race? Yes,and yours especially would be nice to know,it was a post in progress that i was hoping to get a number of members and or guests thoughts or opinions on ,in the past analysis of a single race produced great results and/or participation by lots of posters.Everyone,Please feel free to post your thoughts or opinion's on this race ,if you'd like to voice it. |
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Post by cliff on Nov 5, 2006 12:34:59 GMT -5
Looks like a two horse race to me. Read my posting about Just An Icon in the notebook section. I needn't repeat it here. Blast The Siren is a quality 4 claimer in winning condition. I even gave him the call against 5 claimers last week, but he came up a bit short against Pepitone. As for the rest: #3 That Noble Magic was a fluke winner last week, but benefits from post relief and Andy Shelter is an ok driver. #4 Hoosier Tiger shows no signs of form in his last several, isn't really a claimer anyway. His only victory this year was against the lowest of condition stock, beating the likes of Kinda Ideal, et. al. I love Tony Hall, and it wouldn't surprise me to see this one complete the trifecta or superfecta ticket, but I don't see him beating the top two. #5 Foreverandever is a throw away for a variety of reasons, including the bad spill he took last week...the seven year old has got to be still hurting. Us old timers can empathize. #6, #7, and #8 are all 3 claimers and can't be expected to do much from outside posts. #9 P H Cruiser may be able to compete at this level, but from this post we can't expect him to move off the rail without his regular driver. I'm speculating that the demands of his day job (perhaps a shift change) preclude Ray Fisher from driving Monday. He has Conger driving trotter Navarian Hanover later in the card, so I suppose they're giving him the drive here out of courtesy. There is a reason we never see Conger driving pacers. We also know the Fisher barn to pick their spots when they try to win. This would not appear to be one of those spots. If I were a betting man , this race screams exacta box, or for the more adventurous, a super wheel with the top two over the inside horses...something like 12/12/349/349. I can't imagine Just An Icon going off at anything close to the morning line. If anyone has been paying attention (not necessarily to me, but to the class and form cycle of the horse) they will know he is much better than that. Grismore will be the deserving favorite, Hall will attract some action. Given he has the rail, and his face has been seen on TV a lot recently, I expect Stahl to be third favorite, about 4-1 or 9-2, a pretty square mutual for the only horse with a realistic shot at beating the favorite. |
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Post by thebeliever2 on Nov 5, 2006 12:51:31 GMT -5
When i first looked at the race,the 1-2-9 as some have stated lately, jumped off the page at me,upon a little further review the change in driver on the #9 had me thinking. I ,agree with Cliff on the winner coming from the 1 or 2 posts,just the #9 horse is a question mark?..If by chance ,one or both of the top choices doesn't race up to par,even Conger on a pacer ,following the two best horses in my opinion,is stiill capable of a good show-ing.
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Post by trackrat on Nov 5, 2006 13:15:26 GMT -5
Believer, I agree with Cliff, but I'm going to give Tony Hall a little more weight in driving Hoosier Tiger. Stahl took the overland route last time and the time before, Tiger was boxed on the rail. Three starts ago, did some creditable work in the slop with Aaron in the bike. The class drop and Tony might be good enough to boost this one to second.
Just as That Noble Magic benefitted from the accident last week, Just An Icon was a victim of that same accident. Stahl had him on the move last week before the interference and gets the rail Monday night. Icon has the third highest EPS of the nine horses [PH Cruiser is first, Blast the Siren in second].
As Cliff said, PH Cruiser might be competitive here, but he's trailing from the 9 slot, has a first time driver in Conger and while an eel is a sea creature, it is not a Fish[er]. He does sport the highest EPS at $659 but I don't look for him to overtake Blast the Siren. A word on Fisher. He's a firefighter/paramedic for Mayfield Heights Fire Department and they characteristically work a 24-hour shift every third day. Monday might be his regular shift. Coming from a fire department background myself, I know that FD management doesn't like you trading shifts to go work your second job (driving horses), so he's probably savings lives on Monday.
Jumping on the Cliff bandwagon, I see only three: Blast the Siren, Just An Icon and Hoosier Tiger, who might make it closer than expected.
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Post by cliff on Nov 5, 2006 14:11:32 GMT -5
Isn't this fun. ;D In Re: Hoosier Tiger. Since I have a personal bias against the horse, and personal bias shouldn't get in the way of handicapping or making money, I went back and researched why I don't care for this Indiana bred. Since coming to Northfield in December of 05, he has won exactly 3 races. Once from the 3 hole in a claiming condition event with Brett Miller, once from the rail against NW4 ( he beat some decent horses in that one including Perfect Door) with Keith Kash, Jr. doing the driving, and finally this past summer, again from the 3 against a bunch of absolute losers with Aaron Merriman doing the honors. He set a pretty decent mark at Hoosier last year where he made his money in the claiming condition ranks. The 1:55 mark was a covered rail trip on a very fast track. He came to the Oliverio stable with high expectations. He was the post time favorite countless times with both Grismore and Merriman in the bike from inside posts. He came up empty more often than not. This is a four year old who should be at the peak of his career, instead he has gone backwards. When a horse has had countless chances and has been found wanting, it's time to look elsewhere. Now, I have seen Tony Hall work some major magic, and he could make me look the fool after running my mouth this way, but I still don't think he can beat the top two. Anything can happen in harness racing, especially since the trip is such a major part of the equation (did you see the Grumpy win last night  ), so we will just have to wait and see. Thank you believer for spotting such an interesting race to jaw about, and starting this thread.  |
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Post by trackrat on Nov 5, 2006 17:21:37 GMT -5
Cliff & Believer, I don't see Hoosier Tiger beating Blast the Siren, but I think, on the basis of the class drop, better post and Tony Hall, he can upset Just An Icon. Now that I have verbalized that, ala the Giss of Death, you can expect the Tiger to finish off the board.
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Post by the believer on Nov 5, 2006 17:52:08 GMT -5
Cliff & Believer, I don't see Hoosier Tiger beating Blast the Siren, but I think, on the basis of the class drop, better post and Tony Hall, he can upset Just An Icon. Now that I have verbalized that, ala the Giss of Death, you can expect the Tiger to finish off the board. Trackrat,given that Icon was poised to make his move when the accident took him out,i think the rail gives him a great chance to win this race over even Blast the Siren,in my opinion Siren is the horse to beat,if Tony takes Tiger to the front and trys to hold on ,he will get blown away in the stretch ,that said if Tiger tries an off the pace style,he will be chasing the Icon and Siren home,do you think he can out kick either? BLAST THE SIREN..to me is a horse who likes to rough it parked out,then with his head always up high ,he finds another gear and an explosive burst for a short period of time occurs...........timing his move ,may be key in this race , |
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Post by trackrat on Nov 5, 2006 18:58:40 GMT -5
Watch, after all this discussion, a horse we haven't even discussed will probably win the race.
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Post by trackrat on Nov 7, 2006 8:41:58 GMT -5
Looked like Hoosier Tiger was buried behind That Noble Magic last night, otherwise it looked like he had some pace left and might have caught second. No one was going to catch Blast the Siren. He is super sharp right now.
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), so we will just have to wait and see.