Post by cliff on Dec 21, 2008 18:29:49 GMT -5
I had a pretty good night last evening, nine winners in the fourteen races. Plenty of chalk picks, so I won't crow too loudly. I missed badly on a couple which prompted me to write this blog.
I'm reminded of the recent (2006) Kevin Costner film The Guardian. (Saw it again on TV a week or two ago). Near the end of the film the new, young Coast Guard rescue swimmer asked the old, veteran, and larger than life swimmer how many "saves" (people he had saved from drowning) he had. The speculation among the new crop of recruits had been an unheard of 200 plus in his storied career.
""Twenty-two", Costner's character replied.
Obviously let down and embarrassed for even asking the question, the young rescue swimmer said, "Ah, twenty-two is good...".
"Twenty-two", continued Costner, "is the number I couldn't save. It's the only number I ever kept track of."
So even with nine winners, the races that I remember the most are the two I messed up. They came back to back, the eighth and ninth. The eighth was a condition trot with a claimer thrown in. It was a wide open race. I favored the rail horse, the well bred four year old, Chippendale Dancer, with Ryan Angus aboard. The trotter had been knocking on the door, making good moves, and finishing on the board both of his starts in this class. He was also one of the top money earners of the group, and was only in the race as an AE having won fewer than six parimutuel races. The morning line favorite and eventual post time chalk was the nine horse Fessup Fred with Matt Kakaley. The horse was dropping from the Open and had last won at this level in November with Matt doing the driving. I was skeptical of his chances given the unfavorable post, along with some unimpressive lines in his last four.
There were others with possibilities, namely Hello Carlo, also dropping, and Hooray For Mom, impressive but again without a post. Anastasia Broadway who went gate to wire from the seven hole against lesser filly and mare competition last week also begged a look, but she has never done much when put up against the boys.
Of course the winner came from none of these. I failed to even consider Giulio
who was moving up in class. It was right there in the program. In his last race he shed cover at the 3/4 pole, and tracked down a pretty fair trotter, Conductors Timeout, gaining seven lengths in deep stretch. I didn't see the race, but if I had paid attention to that impressive line I would have viewed a replay of the race (as I did this morning), and certainly would have put him among the contenders. Consider also that he fit among the top money winners per start, wins at a 30% rate lifetime, starts from positive post, comes from a very good barn with one of the more accomplished trot drivers in the sulky. Oh man, what a miss...and at 13-1. Kick me. please. 
The ninth race was my second miss of the evening. Hadn't even recovered from being Giulioed when I was humbled once more. I was so stuck on the three horse, Camcoder, I made him one of my best bets of the evening. I reviewed his last race and was most impressed with the fitness of this pacer. Roughing it the whole way last week at a very fast pace (how many second quarters go in 28.2 at Northfield ?), he refused to give it up all the way to the wire. In against slightly lesser competition tonight, and picking up the very hot Ryan Stahl, it was pretty much a lock, or so I thought.
I had dismissed the rail horse Equalize as not being ready. I had seen a couple of his last starts and wasn't impressed.
Never mind he was the classiest (in terms of earnings) of the group, had the most advantageous post, and the best (statistically at least) driver in the field. Never mind the nine year old has banked over $300k in his lifetime, wins at over a 25% clip, and is prepared by one of the better trainers on the grounds. Never mind any of that, just look at those crappy lines. Or maybe they are not so crappy after all. 
Here is where the numbers guy didn't crunch the numbers. In his race on 12/13 Equalize was pushed wide and got off to a rough start from the six hole and was off 12 lengths at the quarter which went at 28.1. From that opening 30.3 split, Equalize reeled off a middle half of 57.2 and a final quarter of 29.2, in air most of the way, since he had gapped cover, and hand driven the whole way (thank heaven for race replays). Not in shape, hmmmmmmm, maybe I should rethink that one.
Of course Equalize and my "best bet" Camcoder ran together and creamed the rest of the field by seven or eight lengths. That raced screamed exacta box, but I had my deaf ears on.
So I came home last night with some extra Christmas jingle in my pocket, but still down in the mouth. I recounted the night's missed opportunities with my bride
as I handed out her cut (the price I pay to play).
"Geesh, you're never happy, even when you win", she remarked.
"Nope, I guess not", I replied, with Kevin Costner speaking to me in my head .
I'm reminded of the recent (2006) Kevin Costner film The Guardian. (Saw it again on TV a week or two ago). Near the end of the film the new, young Coast Guard rescue swimmer asked the old, veteran, and larger than life swimmer how many "saves" (people he had saved from drowning) he had. The speculation among the new crop of recruits had been an unheard of 200 plus in his storied career.
""Twenty-two", Costner's character replied.
Obviously let down and embarrassed for even asking the question, the young rescue swimmer said, "Ah, twenty-two is good...".
"Twenty-two", continued Costner, "is the number I couldn't save. It's the only number I ever kept track of."
So even with nine winners, the races that I remember the most are the two I messed up. They came back to back, the eighth and ninth. The eighth was a condition trot with a claimer thrown in. It was a wide open race. I favored the rail horse, the well bred four year old, Chippendale Dancer, with Ryan Angus aboard. The trotter had been knocking on the door, making good moves, and finishing on the board both of his starts in this class. He was also one of the top money earners of the group, and was only in the race as an AE having won fewer than six parimutuel races. The morning line favorite and eventual post time chalk was the nine horse Fessup Fred with Matt Kakaley. The horse was dropping from the Open and had last won at this level in November with Matt doing the driving. I was skeptical of his chances given the unfavorable post, along with some unimpressive lines in his last four.
There were others with possibilities, namely Hello Carlo, also dropping, and Hooray For Mom, impressive but again without a post. Anastasia Broadway who went gate to wire from the seven hole against lesser filly and mare competition last week also begged a look, but she has never done much when put up against the boys.
Of course the winner came from none of these. I failed to even consider Giulio
who was moving up in class. It was right there in the program. In his last race he shed cover at the 3/4 pole, and tracked down a pretty fair trotter, Conductors Timeout, gaining seven lengths in deep stretch. I didn't see the race, but if I had paid attention to that impressive line I would have viewed a replay of the race (as I did this morning), and certainly would have put him among the contenders. Consider also that he fit among the top money winners per start, wins at a 30% rate lifetime, starts from positive post, comes from a very good barn with one of the more accomplished trot drivers in the sulky. Oh man, what a miss...and at 13-1. Kick me. please. 
The ninth race was my second miss of the evening. Hadn't even recovered from being Giulioed when I was humbled once more. I was so stuck on the three horse, Camcoder, I made him one of my best bets of the evening. I reviewed his last race and was most impressed with the fitness of this pacer. Roughing it the whole way last week at a very fast pace (how many second quarters go in 28.2 at Northfield ?), he refused to give it up all the way to the wire. In against slightly lesser competition tonight, and picking up the very hot Ryan Stahl, it was pretty much a lock, or so I thought.
I had dismissed the rail horse Equalize as not being ready. I had seen a couple of his last starts and wasn't impressed.
Never mind he was the classiest (in terms of earnings) of the group, had the most advantageous post, and the best (statistically at least) driver in the field. Never mind the nine year old has banked over $300k in his lifetime, wins at over a 25% clip, and is prepared by one of the better trainers on the grounds. Never mind any of that, just look at those crappy lines. Or maybe they are not so crappy after all. 
Here is where the numbers guy didn't crunch the numbers. In his race on 12/13 Equalize was pushed wide and got off to a rough start from the six hole and was off 12 lengths at the quarter which went at 28.1. From that opening 30.3 split, Equalize reeled off a middle half of 57.2 and a final quarter of 29.2, in air most of the way, since he had gapped cover, and hand driven the whole way (thank heaven for race replays). Not in shape, hmmmmmmm, maybe I should rethink that one.
Of course Equalize and my "best bet" Camcoder ran together and creamed the rest of the field by seven or eight lengths. That raced screamed exacta box, but I had my deaf ears on. So I came home last night with some extra Christmas jingle in my pocket, but still down in the mouth. I recounted the night's missed opportunities with my bride
as I handed out her cut (the price I pay to play). "Geesh, you're never happy, even when you win", she remarked.
"Nope, I guess not", I replied, with Kevin Costner speaking to me in my head .