Post by cliff on Jan 22, 2009 22:04:06 GMT -5
I see no one hit the pick5 last (Wednesday 01/21) evening. As I handicap this card after the fact (I always do that if I didn't have the time before the races), I'm amazed there wasn't at least one ticket with the correct combination. I'm doubly amazed that with some of the astute handicappers on this board, someone here didn't nail it. Let's look at each leg.
Leg 1, race 3, a cheap trot. Ok, Rose Run Freddie looks the best here, but trotters are notoriously unpredictable, so there is no way one can key on a trotter while playing this type of exotic. One would have had to consider 3-1 morning liner Thunder Shower who won this race two starts back. Throw out the last line, up in class and out on a night not fit for racing. Add the fact that Wyatt Irvine is batting .333 on trotters this meet, bettered only by Aaron Merriman's .349 (Matt Kakaley at .190 by the way). That horse had to be part of the wheel. What an overlay at 14-1 Sheesh.
Leg 2, race 4, pace NW250PS. Class dropper and ML favorite Osbornes Jet had to be included on the ticket.
Leg 3, race 5, pace NW600 last 5. Ok, this would have been the tough one.
But really, there is nothing to like about any of these horses. In a case like this, with two scratches, one could play an all, or if that appears to be too expensive, then throw out the outside horses who shouldn't have the class to get there, in this case #7 AB's Trick. #5 Non Stop Fella N with Charles Smith, Jr. and who hadn't raced since 12/13 is another we can forget. #9 Kris-A-Character, even with Aaron Merriman, has been absolutely horrible since early November, can also be safely eliminated. That leaves four that have to be included. The #1 and #2, both favorites in the race, #6 Wreckless Preston who benefits the most from the inside scratch, and who has a recent show finish in this class, with a nifty closing effort. That leaves the eventual winner #4 Jates Rookie. That horse has to be included because he is an unknown. This is his second start for a new barn after a five week layoff. Also he is the only five year old in a race full of older horse who have not exactly distinguished themselves over the years. The only exception being the already eliminated Kris-A-Character. By the way, that's a very useful angle, look hard at the four and five year olds who find themselves in against the old gray beards.
Leg 4, race 6, pace 3000 claimers. If you were playing the pick5 and didn't have even money favorite, David Erol circled in this leg, well maybe handicapping isn't your forte.
Leg 5 race 7, pace NW200PS. Another with no obvious choice. We know Machmachwhosthere is a vulnerable favorite, so he's not the key. As we look over all the entries, there is nothing standing out. #1 Sporty Moran can't be keyed, the ten year old hasn't won a race forever, and the Kass stable hasn't sent many to the winners circle this meet. I really Like four year olds in a spot like this, but #2 Kaydex hasn't been sharp at all, even broke two starts ago. The other four year old, Aviator Bluestone is interesting, dropping out of condition claimers where he had mixed success. He certainly was racing against better, so he is a possibility. #4 Ryans Hall might be one to consider, but Aaron Merriman chose off him to drive the #8 who has virtually no chance. Not encouraging. The outside horses, #6, #7, #8 have to have something special going for them to be considered, and they don't. That leaves #9 Johnnys Reactor. The five year old (there's that angle again) has been breaking all over the place with Robin Miller at the reins. But tonight trainer Jim Otto calls on leading driver, Matt Kakaley to take charge. Hmmmm, didn't we just see this a week or so ago, when trainer Otto replaced long time driver Robin Miller with Matt? Indeed, the horse went off as the prohibitive favorite and romped, if I remember correctly. So given that, plus the third start back angle, and the four/five year old angle, shouldn't this horse be included in our fantasy pick5 wheel? To quote another fantasy of mine, "You betcha."
Like I said before, I'm amazed someone didn't cash that ticket.
Leg 1, race 3, a cheap trot. Ok, Rose Run Freddie looks the best here, but trotters are notoriously unpredictable, so there is no way one can key on a trotter while playing this type of exotic. One would have had to consider 3-1 morning liner Thunder Shower who won this race two starts back. Throw out the last line, up in class and out on a night not fit for racing. Add the fact that Wyatt Irvine is batting .333 on trotters this meet, bettered only by Aaron Merriman's .349 (Matt Kakaley at .190 by the way). That horse had to be part of the wheel. What an overlay at 14-1 Sheesh.
Leg 2, race 4, pace NW250PS. Class dropper and ML favorite Osbornes Jet had to be included on the ticket.
Leg 3, race 5, pace NW600 last 5. Ok, this would have been the tough one.
But really, there is nothing to like about any of these horses. In a case like this, with two scratches, one could play an all, or if that appears to be too expensive, then throw out the outside horses who shouldn't have the class to get there, in this case #7 AB's Trick. #5 Non Stop Fella N with Charles Smith, Jr. and who hadn't raced since 12/13 is another we can forget. #9 Kris-A-Character, even with Aaron Merriman, has been absolutely horrible since early November, can also be safely eliminated. That leaves four that have to be included. The #1 and #2, both favorites in the race, #6 Wreckless Preston who benefits the most from the inside scratch, and who has a recent show finish in this class, with a nifty closing effort. That leaves the eventual winner #4 Jates Rookie. That horse has to be included because he is an unknown. This is his second start for a new barn after a five week layoff. Also he is the only five year old in a race full of older horse who have not exactly distinguished themselves over the years. The only exception being the already eliminated Kris-A-Character. By the way, that's a very useful angle, look hard at the four and five year olds who find themselves in against the old gray beards.Leg 4, race 6, pace 3000 claimers. If you were playing the pick5 and didn't have even money favorite, David Erol circled in this leg, well maybe handicapping isn't your forte.
Leg 5 race 7, pace NW200PS. Another with no obvious choice. We know Machmachwhosthere is a vulnerable favorite, so he's not the key. As we look over all the entries, there is nothing standing out. #1 Sporty Moran can't be keyed, the ten year old hasn't won a race forever, and the Kass stable hasn't sent many to the winners circle this meet. I really Like four year olds in a spot like this, but #2 Kaydex hasn't been sharp at all, even broke two starts ago. The other four year old, Aviator Bluestone is interesting, dropping out of condition claimers where he had mixed success. He certainly was racing against better, so he is a possibility. #4 Ryans Hall might be one to consider, but Aaron Merriman chose off him to drive the #8 who has virtually no chance. Not encouraging. The outside horses, #6, #7, #8 have to have something special going for them to be considered, and they don't. That leaves #9 Johnnys Reactor. The five year old (there's that angle again) has been breaking all over the place with Robin Miller at the reins. But tonight trainer Jim Otto calls on leading driver, Matt Kakaley to take charge. Hmmmm, didn't we just see this a week or so ago, when trainer Otto replaced long time driver Robin Miller with Matt? Indeed, the horse went off as the prohibitive favorite and romped, if I remember correctly. So given that, plus the third start back angle, and the four/five year old angle, shouldn't this horse be included in our fantasy pick5 wheel? To quote another fantasy of mine, "You betcha."
Like I said before, I'm amazed someone didn't cash that ticket.
