For Jim and all you Eddie Rabbitt fans

[cliff]

The problem with handicapping races hours or even a day or two before the race, is that you can pretty much throw your prognostications in the waste can and start over when the rains come and the track turns to soup. But the reevaluation also provides opportunities. Let's take an analytic analysis of Tuesday's rainy night at Northfield.

Race 1 Redzilla, obviously the best on the track (in this handicappers opinion) has an acceptable record on an off track. American Challenge has a higher winning percentage on bad tracks than he has overall, and Isn't She Precious (who never breaks) has an on the board percentage close to 50% on off tracks. None of the other trotters in this race has a comparable record in any track condition. Nice little $187 trifecta, pretty good considering a chalk winner.

Race 2 The best mudder in the field - Parisian Bromac by far. Even off a sick scratch and with the dreaded eight hole he still almost wins. Of course it helps to have the leading North American driver doing the steering.

Race 3 Findencio now has 12 lifetime wins, six of them have come on an off track.

Race 4 Up Front Hanover, the class of the field, has a higher winning and on the board percentage on an off track than he does overall.

Race 5 I mentioned this race in another thread. The only trotters with acceptable off track stats are Captain Korki, Dees Bomber, and Gimme Gimme Gimme. Pretty much a slam dunk betting Captain Korki.

Race 6 Best mudders in the race, Validated Parking who last won on an off track, and Yankee Ace who finished fourth in this race. My top pick before the rain, Eye Of The Dog has an acceptable off track record, 18% wins, 43% otb, finishes third. Place finisher, Lilty, has an unimpressive off track record, but had other factors going for him including very nice form, the rail and Kakaley.

Race 7 The sloppy going gave new life to 13yo Rich Man Poor Man, who won back in January on an off track, but was disqualified and placed third. He also had a nice second place effort on a sloppy track last month against a very sharp Take Down Hall. Overall his winning percentage on an off track, now 14% is better than his overall lifetime 9%. Another notable, Big Head Hundreds' winning and otb percentages are a tad above his overall averages.

Race 8 With very few starts, none of these trotters have distinguished themselves on an off track. The exception is Jack N Sam who has been racing on bad tracks successfully this winter.

Race 9 Not a lot to go on in this race with young horses and not a lot of chances on off tracks. The notable exception is Blue My Mind, who has other issues at the moment.

Race 10 Race winner, Go Again, has an acceptable off track record, won by 17 lengths on a terrible snowy night back in January. Overall the best mudder in the race, JTShadow came within a nose of winning at 23-1.

Race 11 The best mudders in this race were Honorable Guy and Seaworthy. The Guy overcame his outside post to finish third. Seaworthy was basically outclassed in this one. The winner, Bustamante, bucked the trend with a well won victory, while his off track record remains undistinguished.

Race 12 The only horse with any off track success of note was Spirit Freeluck, who apparently didn't feel like racing, lasix or no.

Race 13 Early favorites Magic Dart and Powerful Cam both hate off tracks, which make them both unplayable. French Attack has four lifetime wins in his short career, three of them have been on off tracks. Again the driver makes a big difference, but he almost pulls the upset from the eight hole. The race winner Thisonesforupops, shows some nice off track lines, and his last victory came in the slop at Lebanon in December.

The take away from all this is than you must adapt your handicapping with consideration to the track conditions. Capping based upon an assumed fast track will burn a hole in your pocket every time.

[jimhorseman]

Cliff:

I'm getting to the age where I was afraid not one would remember Eddie Rabbit.

Terrific analysis as always. Let me ask a question about "off track" stats. I generally download the trackmaster programs and they do provide a seperate lifetime entry for off track starts, wins, places & shows. My understanding is that the trackmaster "off" means all starts on tracks not rated fast. Many a night a track is listed as "good" but in reality plays more like a fast than sloppy track. In fact tracks are almost always listed as "good" in March and April regardless of weather as the thawing process takes over. My preference would be an entry on lifetime starts solely on sloppy/muddy tracks. When I handicap on a sloppy night I have been looking more for track bias and how a horse's running style, post position & driver might fit into that night's bias. A long way to get to the question (all right not question but questions) but how much weight do you give to the off track lifetime stats? Do you use some program or have access to information that isolates sloppy tracks? Do you prefer front runners or closers in the mud? Thanks in advance for your insight.

[cliff]

Hey Jim,

Some good questions, I'll give them a go:

I work under the assumption, after decades of watching races (yes even when Eddie Rabbitt was at the top of the charts) that a majority of horses race about the same no matter what condition the track. About 15% of horses seem to enjoy (enjoy may be too strong a word) the muddy going, while a similar number hate the bad conditions and are more interested to going back to the barn than racing. I also assume changing track conditions are not going to make a pretender into a contender. So basically we have to ask the question, "do the current conditions favor or hinder any of the contenders in the race?"

Here's where it becomes tricky. You are correct that the Trackmaster off track stats are skewed, not only for the reasons you cite, but also they consider all fair tracks as "good" and therefore included in the lifetime off track stats. A horse, especially young ones who have spent a lot of time at the fairs will seem to have many off track starts when that simply is not true. I do have a database where I keep my own off track stats and observations on regular Northfield horses, but it does not include every horse, so I too must rely on Trackmaster stats.

Knowing that the TM stats are skewed actually doesn't hurt handicapping the off track that much, first because for most horses the track condition doesn't matter, and second we need only look at the contenders in the race to see if they fall in either the "love" or "hate" category. If we see a contender that has acceptable off track stats, acceptable being defined as close or slight higher (given the TM stat bias) percentages than overall, then the horse probably falls into the majority which I view has having no preference to track conditions. An example from Tuesday would be Captain Korki who has an acceptable off track record that is supported by my own empirical evidence.

Sometimes the TM stats are evidence of a horse's "love" of the off track. The disparity between the horse's performance on an off track and his overall percentages can't be explained by simple TM skewing. A couple from Tuesday include Fidencio with now half his meager victories coming on off tracks, and Validated Parking whose winning percentage is 50% higher on off tracks. Again these stats are supported by my own database.

Then we have horses whose off track stats are dismal. Also given TM's bias toward better off track performance, these records should clearly indicate a horse's preference to a warm, dry barn over racing in the slop. Examples would be betting favorite Hoofner win zero wins in 18 off track starts, or Magic Dart (1-37) or Powerful Cam (1-30). I always say that numbers don't tell the whole story, but these numbers are compelling enough for me to look for other horses, or simply pass the race entirely.

A quick note on bias - I firmly believe there is a track bias. That bias is determined by the track size and its configuration. I do not believe it changes due to the season or weather conditions. Believe me, I've tried over the years to find a correlation between seasonal and weather related bias, and it simply isn't there. I know others disagree, but that's my doctrine and I'm sticking to it. Northfield is and as far back as I can remember been a front runners track. That is why I put a big emphasis on early speed with my handicapping. Horses that can't at least protect their position from the start are at a big disadvantage. Why does Aaron Merriman leave with everything, even horses whose gate speed is marginal? He knows that's the best way to get his horse in a position to contend.

I'm digressing into other areas - time to close. Hope I answered your questions, Jim.

[jimhorseman]

Cliff:

Due to some sad circumstances (friend passed away Wednesday unexpectedly at age 44) I knew I would not be able to attend the races tonight and thus didn't really take more than a token glance at the program. I flipped on the computer just in time to watch A Fleet Angel win the 10th. I did see your post on her earlier today. Nice call. The race went just as you had forecast. The payoffs looked to be very nice so I hope you made a fistfull at the windows - or at least had a huge credit added to an on line account.

I agreed with a lot of your answers above, especially that "a majority of horses race about the same no matter what the condition of the track. " I generally don't pay attention to the trackmaster Off track record but after reading your reasoning and examples will take at least a look at it in the future.

I do disagree with you that track bias does not change with the season or weather conditions. I still contend that there days when closers have no chance (often I joke just to box the inside three or four horses every race on a muddy night) and actually if I see this playing out will keep notes on horses I liked that pulled and looked to be empty. I'll come back on these horses next start and have had decent success with this angle. Other muddy days the inside of the track is so thick that the outside is the place to be and the front is awful. I also note these days. Maintenance of the track - whether it is scaped during a card - can drastically alter a bias mid-card which makes it tough on simulcast wagerers. I am fortunate in that I have made a couple of friends who are generally at Northfield and will text me a note when mid-card maintenance is performed. Thanks Mike!!!

Quick track bias story. Finger Lakes is a small t-bred racetrack in Central NY that is usually very generous to front-runners. However; on Tuesdays they are the only t-bred track to run in NY State and thus are exclusively carried by all NY State simulcasts and OTB's. Since NY City makes up 90% of the state population about 90% of the Tuesday Finger Lake handle comes from NY City. The NY City folk have a notorious reputation for loving to bet front-runners. When NY City handicappers would look at Finger Lake past performance charts the front would look like a logical place to find winners. I honestly believe and have heard rumors that Finger Lakes takes advantage of this situation. Finger Lakes will post the amount of "cushion" or amount of dirt laid down on the track as a footnote blended in with other race card changes before the first race. Finger Lakes always keeps a cushion of 1 1/2 to 2 inches. Except on Tuesdays. When they are the only game in town and have handle that is triple their other days of the week the Tuesday cushion is generally at least 3 and often as much as 4 inches. The deeper the cushion the more difficult it is on front runners - think of running through ankle high sand. The locals and horsemen all know this and thus will heavily bet closers on Tuesdays. There were many a Tuesday where my friends and I would take half a vacation day, make the 90 minute trek to Finger Lakes and generally profit. The best was when Finger Lakes would significantly change the cushion in mid-race card. There would be a small crawl noting the cushion change along with other race information. While most wouldn't pay attention it was a significant advantage to know about this intentional track bias. Ah, the good old days.

[cliff]

Intersting story on track bias Jim, I guess we can agree to disagree on the premise, at least until Eddie Rabbitt makes a come back. But hey, whatever works for you. I feel trying to guess at track bias about the same way I feel about trip handicapping, it's a non starter. I prefer the KISS method - find a sharp horse who like to win, that has had success in its current class, with a driver and post that compliments its abilities. You at least have a shot at a winner. Good luck tonight.