First five races on Friday night

[trackrat]

The first five races last night defied (IMHO) any kind of legitimate handicapping, except perhaps "trip handicapping." Were those races just flukes, since the rest of the program sized up pretty well, or was there a commonality in the first five?

[cliff]

Hi TR,

Well, Jimhorseman would attribute it to track bias , but I have a different theory. Defies legitimate handicapping? I don't think so, we just needed to handicap out of the box and read between the lines a bit. Let's look at those first five:

Race 1 - This one smelled of three day old fish from the beginning. In the first place, what was Fionavar Hanover doing in the race? She won an $18k race at the Meadows on 3/12, hasn't been seen since then is entered in a $4,500 race at Northfield? I guessed she was having trouble getting in at The Meadows and Burke wanted to keep her sharp. As you rats know, small cheese is better than no cheese. Well, that was a bad guess. Should have known something was wrong with the horse. Same goes with Kalfas Attack. What was Sherman doing bringing her back when she was making money in Pa? As for the winner, Towner's Big Sadie, she made a terrific move against a super sharp Sara's Lil Sis a week ago, and it's easy to see her in the winners circle with those invaders off form and Lil Sis scratched.

Race 2 - more poor handicapping, at least on my part. I attributed Sharon's Future's flat performance a week ago to the eight hole draw. On reflection I realize that her losing ground in the final quarter after a covered rail trip was more about poor form than the outside draw. Also the week before that she really had no excuse for losing from the rail, after the rating she got from Wyatt. Nope, she was a poor choice for favorite. As for the winner, Rosie's Sweetie, I have been discounting her efforts because of the sweet trips she's been getting. My bad again. I'm the guy who touts horses who love to win. She has a lifetime winning percentage of 22%, comparable to both Sharon's and place finisher, Electric Highlight.

Race 3 - we should know by now that Silky Sailor is a streaky sort. She was claimed for $4800 and has been on sale for two months at $3600 with no takers. We non horsemen can only suspect that she is a high maintenance animal, but in any event we've seen her form go south very quickly at times. I guessed right that she was due for a bad outing and the second tier start added fuel to that conjecture. I've been over rating Itza Goozi Girl based upon last year's stats, so she was my choice, ill advised like a few others I made last night. Winner Stox Up Bluegrass (another prone to streaks) has current stats comparable to Silky, and her effort against the fours on 3/06 is better than anything else on the form. Pat's Fantasy, a mare I've never liked, was also showing signs of waking up. My bias clouded my thinking on that one.

Race 4 - this race was simply unfortunate luck. Winning Yankee broke early and possibly caused favorite Dynastar to go off stride and off course. That changed the race dynamics, so anything was possible. Merriman somehow got Cinderella Blue in the lead and never gave it up. Merriman was just being Merriman, taking advantage of the situation. A closer examination of the horse reveals a much improved mare with her recent barn change. She had excuses in her last two, and we also note Aaron won with her in this class handily three back.

Race 5 - Big Sapphire wasn't ready in her first start back, Colossal Sahbra had trouble from the nine hole (also backed up last week against slightly better). The winner, Redmeansgo, has been knocking on the door in this class, probably should have won three back with a better steer. As for Dream Misty's effort and near victory, on that I'll have to punt. There are mysteries of the universe I guess we are not meant to figure out. I'm not as bold as some who might conjecture that the horse was juiced, but just in case I'm going to use both of Ashby's entries tonight.

[jimhorseman]

I was away for a couple of days and come back to see: "Jimhorseman would attribute it to track bias" - ouch. Wow, make one comment on a night where it appears the front isn't holding and they never let you forget. In all seriousness let me put my couple of copper Lincolns in on some of Friday's early races.

Race 1: I was immediately suspicious of Fionavar Hanover. In her last five races she showed two wins at Yonkers and the Meadows in high purse races and was competitive in the other races. Why bring her to race for $4,500 at Northfield? Cliff speculated that perhaps she had trouble getting in at the Meadows. I've been following The Meadowlands as a compliment track to Northfield. Burke has been frequently shipping his Meadows horses to The Meadowlands and for some reasons The Meadowlands has not had a problem filling races. Surprisingly I've seen numerous 7 and 8 horse fields there so there was opportunity for Fionavar Hanover. In fact, Ron Burke had a horse named JK Reunited run this past Friday in The Meadowlands 7th race that on 3/19 won the same race at the Meadows that Fionavar Hanover had in her last start on 3/12. Burke has also been shipping horses to run at Buffalo Raceway and Matt Kakaley has been there on Wednesday, Saturdays & Sundays to drive them. If Burke wasn't sure if Fionavar Hanover was able to handle the Meadowland/Yonkers circuit he could have easily sent her to Buffalo where she could have run against arguably lesser competition than Northfield for double the purse. Kalfas Attack was the other heavy favorite but again, why run for substantially less at Northfield. Add in that the Kent Sherman barn has been stone cold the past couple weeks and it looked like a race to try to make a few dollars. The Sara's Lil Sis scratch left me with either Passing Lane Penny or Towners Big Sadie as logical choices. Towner's Big Sadie had a little better speed figure and seemed a touch sharper but Passing Lane Penny finally drew inside and had Kurt Sugg driving while Towner's Big Sadie had Joey Mapes. The driver difference made me go to Passing Lane Penny. Wrong decision. Sugg tried to leave but; in my mind wasn't nearly aggressive enough and took back all the way to last despite starting from post 3 . He allowed Joey Mapes to get the jump on him and that made the difference in the race. I missed a big early trifecta but I did back up with a few doubles using Towner's Big Sadie so at least I could look forward to.....

Race 2: I thought Sharon's Future was a vulnerable heavy favorite. Only once in her last five starts was she able to run a last half in under a minute or last quarter in under 30 seconds. I thought there was a chance for some early speed as Doowrah's Stand, Rosie's Sweetie, Electric Highlight or Shady Time Gal could all leave. I also felt Armbro Wonder on the rail would protect her position. This would force Sharon to run hard early and make it more probable she would falter late. My mistake was discounting Rosie's Sweeties recent record of 4 wins in five starts as she was always inside and had ideal trips. I also stubbornly overlooked the fact that Kash Jr has been significantly better since he started using a new bike two weeks ago and that his DJ Milner trained horses had been getting sharp. In fact, DJ Milner is now the leading win trainer at Buffalo Raceway. Instead my doubles were with Rhiannon O Rhye, Electric Highlight & Shady Time Gal. In retrospect I should have given more weight to the year to date slump Jodi Schillaci has been in. I thought the trip set up nice for Rhiannon O Rhye but Aaron got locked in at the half and never pulled. I'm not sure if not pulling was intentional as he knew he didn't have enough horse or if he was caught off guard. Ironically Rosie's Sweetie ended up getting the trip I envisioned for Rhiannon O Rhye. Not sure what to make of Rhiannon as she exploded in the stretch but was that because she sat the rail till the top of the stretch and had the energy to run the final 400 feet or is she sharp and with a better trip ready to run big next time out? I hoped either Electric Highlight or Shady Time Gal would leave hard and maybe sit behind Sharon's Future or get a nice first over trip and go by her. Shady Time Gal of course broke stride at the gate and Electric Highlight followed Rosie's Sweetie but couldn't get her late. In retrospect the first two races were very hittable but interestingly my handicapping skills sharpen exponentially after races are run.

Race 3: I loved Stox Up Bluegrass and had her as one of my best bets of the night. Despite the fact I missed my handicapping contest bets where I singled her I did have her where it counts most, at the windows. Looking at the program it may have appeared she was tailing off but she was by far the highest rated horse on my speed rating. Three starts back Stox Up Bluegrass was in a $4,000 claiming race where she ran a big third parked out the last half coming home in 58.3. Two starts back she tried to come first over against Fleur De Le who had the lead , Aaron in the bike and was a monster that night. I didn't see horses of that quality in this race. Last start she had the 7 post and was immediately 15 lengths out by the first quarter as the field was widely spread. She did stay sharp by closing in under a minute. Inside post, $3,000 claiming race with two throwout horses just inside her made it look like an ideal situation. Silky Sailor was a horse I felt would be overbet. She races best on the front and that wasn't going to happen from post 9. Her last two races from post 9 had her coming first over early and not getting there. I thought that may happen again. I was hoping the driver change on Race on Wonder would overcome the outside 8 post but Stahl has been in a horrible slump; especially taking down a lot of heavy favorites the past couple Fridays. He didn't help Race on Wonder.

Race 4: As Cliff mentioned was immediately thrown in chaos by the early break in stride. I had used BB Big Girl and Belle Beckley along with Dynastar in my pick five bets (where I singled Stox Up Bluegrass). Give it up to Aaron who was able to get to the lead and just hold off the fast closing BB Big Girl. At least I kept up my streak of never winning an important photo. Belle Beckley ran poorly for the second straight week and may be in a down cycle.

Race 5: My other almost big hit as I really liked Redmeansgo. She and Colossal Sahbra were my fastest rated horses. Like Silky Sailor, Colossal Sahbra is a front running horse stuck in a 9 post. There were other negatives such as the Sherman barn and driver Ryan Stahl being cold and that the horse was immediately dropped back into $5,000 claimers after a poor race where she was soundly beat as a 1 to 2 favorite. Redmeansgo's last race in February was a big effort where she was beat by Scoot to the Top who was now running in the fillies and mares feature race. Last week Redmeansgo had all kinds of traffic problems and roared home. I noted her as a come back to horse. Sadly I didn't cash in the race as I only used Redmeansgo on top in exotics and like Cliff I can't explain Dream Misty's big run. I use a speed rating system for guidance and Dream Misty, along with No Ordinary Smile were so poorly rated that if they had an exacta bet on who would be the last two horses to cross the finish line I would have crushed it. Moving up in class after two soundly beaten third place finishes in lower company against lesser stock, unable to break 2:01 since coming back after a scratch sick in December, no wins in two years and Kurt Sugg driving who had disappointed me with his early Friday drives she was no where on any of my tickets. How she took 4 seconds off her last two starts working hard the entire mile is beyond even my previously touted post race handicapping skills. My own fault for getting greedy and not having some win money on a horse I really liked that went off at 6-1.

I'll be happy to use my tremendous post handicapping skills if anyone wants to cash Monday's early daily double. Just call me after 8 p.m.

[cliff]

Mar 29, 2009 20:57:39 GMT -5 jimhorseman said:

... but interestingly my handicapping skills sharpen exponentially after races are run.

Indeed, me also...sometimes I realize where I went wrong even before they finish.

[longshotmike]

Mar 29, 2009 20:57:39 GMT -5 jimhorseman said:

Race 2: I thought Sharon's Future was a vulnerable heavy favorite. Only once in her last five starts was she able to run a last half in under a minute or last quarter in under 30 seconds. I thought there was a chance for some early speed as Doowrah's Stand, Rosie's Sweetie, Electric Highlight or Shady Time Gal could all leave. I also felt Armbro Wonder on the rail would protect her position. This would force Sharon to run hard early and make it more probable she would falter late. My mistake was discounting Rosie's Sweeties recent record of 4 wins in five starts as she was always inside and had ideal trips. I also stubbornly overlooked the fact that Kash Jr has been significantly better since he started using a new bike two weeks ago and that his DJ Milner trained horses had been getting sharp. In fact, DJ Milner is now the leading win trainer at Buffalo Raceway. Instead my doubles were with Rhiannon O Rhye, Electric Highlight & Shady Time Gal. In retrospect I should have given more weight to the year to date slump Jodi Schillaci has been in. I thought the trip set up nice for Rhiannon O Rhye but Aaron got locked in at the half and never pulled. I'm not sure if not pulling was intentional as he knew he didn't have enough horse or if he was caught off guard. Ironically Rosie's Sweetie ended up getting the trip I envisioned for Rhiannon O Rhye. Not sure what to make of Rhiannon as she exploded in the stretch but was that because she sat the rail till the top of the stretch and had the energy to run the final 400 feet or is she sharp and with a better trip ready to run big next time out? I hoped either Electric Highlight or Shady Time Gal would leave hard and maybe sit behind Sharon's Future or get a nice first over trip and go by her. Shady Time Gal of course broke stride at the gate and Electric Highlight followed Rosie's Sweetie but couldn't get her late. In retrospect the first two races were very hittable but interestingly my handicapping skills sharpen exponentially after races are run.

If yu look at any charts of late where Sharons Future is the favorite and Keith Kash Jr is driving in the same race. Sharon most of the time wont win,but when Sharon is at decent odds and K K Jr is in the race, she will win...take that for what it is...look at the charts and you decide ;D