Post by cliff on Apr 25, 2009 13:16:41 GMT -5
As some of you know, I base my handicapping on statistics. I've developed a computer algorithm which helps with all the number crunching that I used to do by hand. Also I keep a database which keeps everything in order, and gives a historical record of horses, drivers, and trainers in particular situations. My usual routine is to let the computer do its thing, then make the "necessary" adjustments based upon my own insights to come up with the selections that I post here most race days.
Many times the computer and I agree, sometimes we do not. Last night the computer picked seven winners, while I picked one.
Actually the computer and I agreed on Bytemetoni in the eighth, a nice 7-2 winner. We also agreed the best horse in the fifth was Shady Attack, who was knocked out by early road trouble in that race. (See my post in the Bet Back Book section). So my virtual scorecard for the night is computer 8, Cliff 2. 
By the way, the computer said Ever Berries was fourth best in her race and could possibly hit the board, and there she was, fourth at 41-1.
When I show these results to my better half, she just smiles and says, "you silly man, when are you going to learn..."
She's right of course, if I just play the numbers, I'm way a head, when I interject my own subjective criteria and biases, well, let's just say, I don't do as well. 
So here tonight, and perhaps only tonight (we'll have to see how this works out), is Al's (Mr. Algorithm) selections for this Saturday card, unvarnished and unblemished by yours truly. 
Selections for Saturday April 25.
Race 1
#2 Noble Cruiser -
#4 Up Front Guy -
#5 Category Six -
#1 Michael C Hanover -
Race 2
#1 Weedly -
#4 Pick Me A Rose -
#3 Lisa's Mom -
#2 Sam's Flash -
Race 3 Very close, a statistical dead heat
#5 Hello Carlo -
#4 Master Wheels -
#3 Stonebridge Romeo -
#6 Chust Chudy -
Race 4 Easily
#6 Colossal Sahbra -
#3 Treasure Island -
#5 Game Sophie -
#7 Attack On The Town -
Race 5 Another Easy Call
#1 Soul Redeemer -
#5 Liftoff Bayama -
#2 Go Bogart -
#8 Forever Friendly -
Race 6 Closer Than You Might Think
#2 Fox Valley Flyby -
#3 Up Front Hanover -
#5 Elm Grove Gerson -
#4 Noble Star King -
Race 7 Close Call, trotters are trotters after all
#4 Conductors Timeout -
#3 Chipendale Dancer -
#9 Lipey -
#2 R Cowboy -
Race 8 Virtual Tie Between Top Two
#1 Painted Speed -
#2 Utica Hanover -
#3 Expensive Western -
#5 The Long Goodbye -
Race 9
#1 Bacon Hill Bob -
#2 Elektrafreak -
#7 Mighty Looker -
#4 Contradiction -
Race 10 We Agree! Longshot Play Of The Night
#5 Miss Hardbody -
#2 La Suvera -
#1 Sweetie Peetie -
#8 Rhiannon O Rhye -
Race 11 Another Close One
#2 Whos Yur Daddy Now -
#4 E C K -
#1 Osborne's Bullet -
#3 Fancy Schmansy -
Race 12
#3 Chief Connection -
#2 Jaccka Midnight -
#1 Green Acre Pill -
#5 Eza Rich King -
Race 13
#2 Southwind Menlo -
#3 David Erol -
#5 Jtshadow -
#4 JD's Houdini -
Race 14
#3 Survivor I Am -
#4 Helene's Escape -
#6 Sophia -
#2 Swift Samantha -
Good Luck
Many times the computer and I agree, sometimes we do not. Last night the computer picked seven winners, while I picked one.
Actually the computer and I agreed on Bytemetoni in the eighth, a nice 7-2 winner. We also agreed the best horse in the fifth was Shady Attack, who was knocked out by early road trouble in that race. (See my post in the Bet Back Book section). So my virtual scorecard for the night is computer 8, Cliff 2. 
By the way, the computer said Ever Berries was fourth best in her race and could possibly hit the board, and there she was, fourth at 41-1. When I show these results to my better half, she just smiles and says, "you silly man, when are you going to learn..."
She's right of course, if I just play the numbers, I'm way a head, when I interject my own subjective criteria and biases, well, let's just say, I don't do as well. 
So here tonight, and perhaps only tonight (we'll have to see how this works out), is Al's (Mr. Algorithm) selections for this Saturday card, unvarnished and unblemished by yours truly. 
Selections for Saturday April 25.
Race 1
#2 Noble Cruiser -
#4 Up Front Guy -
#5 Category Six -
#1 Michael C Hanover -
Race 2
#1 Weedly -
#4 Pick Me A Rose -
#3 Lisa's Mom -
#2 Sam's Flash -
Race 3 Very close, a statistical dead heat
#5 Hello Carlo -
#4 Master Wheels -
#3 Stonebridge Romeo -
#6 Chust Chudy -
Race 4 Easily
#6 Colossal Sahbra -
#3 Treasure Island -
#5 Game Sophie -
#7 Attack On The Town -
Race 5 Another Easy Call
#1 Soul Redeemer -
#5 Liftoff Bayama -
#2 Go Bogart -
#8 Forever Friendly -
Race 6 Closer Than You Might Think
#2 Fox Valley Flyby -
#3 Up Front Hanover -
#5 Elm Grove Gerson -
#4 Noble Star King -
Race 7 Close Call, trotters are trotters after all
#4 Conductors Timeout -
#3 Chipendale Dancer -
#9 Lipey -
#2 R Cowboy -
Race 8 Virtual Tie Between Top Two
#1 Painted Speed -
#2 Utica Hanover -
#3 Expensive Western -
#5 The Long Goodbye -
Race 9
#1 Bacon Hill Bob -
#2 Elektrafreak -
#7 Mighty Looker -
#4 Contradiction -
Race 10 We Agree! Longshot Play Of The Night
#5 Miss Hardbody -
#2 La Suvera -
#1 Sweetie Peetie -
#8 Rhiannon O Rhye -
Race 11 Another Close One
#2 Whos Yur Daddy Now -
#4 E C K -
#1 Osborne's Bullet -
#3 Fancy Schmansy -
Race 12
#3 Chief Connection -
#2 Jaccka Midnight -
#1 Green Acre Pill -
#5 Eza Rich King -
Race 13
#2 Southwind Menlo -
#3 David Erol -
#5 Jtshadow -
#4 JD's Houdini -
Race 14
#3 Survivor I Am -
#4 Helene's Escape -
#6 Sophia -
#2 Swift Samantha -
Good Luck