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Post by cliff on May 12, 2009 10:25:38 GMT -5
...of getting my horse beat by Charles Smith with a pocket sitting long shot twice in one night? I'm speaking of race 7 when Charlie got Bus Stop up to beat Thebigguyfromtown, and in the 10th when he did the same with Constantinoble over Winter Cruise. I'll give Charlie his props, he gave both nice trips and was patient. Bus Stop did have the back class to win, but with showing little in the qualifier and off over five years, we would expect just a token effort in his first start. I have a rule that states, "the unknown horse will beat you, so never bet a race with an unknown entered". I broke that rule last night, and it cost me. Constantinoble is not a bad horse (for the class) , and has been improving all season. Winter Cruise took pressure all race and finally succumbed by a nose. The handicapping was correct, the race dynamics did me in, so I don't feel all that bad. It would have been hard to put Smith on top in this race, but the 56-1 was simply silly. The horse is much better than that. If Aaron had been aboard he would have been perhaps second or third choice. Is it Friday yet?
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Post by trackrat on May 12, 2009 17:03:50 GMT -5
Charlie seems to do pretty well from inside post positions. Cliff, do you keep those kinds of stats? He's been eating me alive with Tough Bow Win.
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Post by cliff on May 13, 2009 0:38:59 GMT -5
Rat, as a matter of fact I do. Including Monday night here are Charlie's stats since the beginning of the year: 41 starts from post 1 or 2 with a winning percentage of 12.2 and an otb percentage of 51.2 64 starts from post 3, 4, or 5 with a winning percentage of 4.7 and an otb percentage of 23.4 28 starts from post 6 with a winning percentage of 0 and an otb percentage of 7.1 32 starts from post 7 with a winning percentage of 0 and an otb percentage of 12.5 21 starts from post 8 with a winning percentage of 4.8 and an otb percentage of 14.3 15 starts from post 9 with a winning percentage of 6.7 and an otb percentage of 26.7 I group post 1 & 2 together and posts 3, 4, & 5 together because statistically there is not a lot of difference between the winning and on the board percentages overall at Northfield, so it doesn't make much sense to keep keep individual stats for each post. His two wins Monday raised his post 1 & 2 winning percentage to a more respectable 12.2% from 7.7%
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Post by jimhorseman on May 13, 2009 19:10:01 GMT -5
I also keep stats but mine look more like this:
Percentage of times I pound table in frustration at the wire: 23.4% Percentage of photos I win if I'm trying to get a longshot over: 0.4% Percentage of photos I win if it involves me having an even money shot: 96.1% Percentage of times my horse wins if one of my friends calls me "homefree" at 3/4 pole: 5.4% Odds that if a horse breaks in a race I have him on my ticket: 83.3% Odds that an inquiry will affect me in a negative way: 77.9%
Sigh,
Jim
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Post by longshotmike on May 13, 2009 20:57:20 GMT -5
I also keep stats but mine look more like this: Percentage of times I pound table in frustration at the wire: 23.4 Percentage of photos I win if I'm trying to get a longshot over: 0.4% Percentage of photos I win if it involves me have an even money shot: 96.1% Percentage of times my horse wins if one of my friends calls me "homefree" at 3/4 pole: 5.4% Odds that if a horse breaks in a race I have him on my ticket: 83.3% Sigh, Jim I laughed out loud for 10 minutes after reading that, so true, so true... don 't forget the ever popular Percent of hitting a pick 5 when you have 5 of the 9 horses in the last leg 1.3%
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Post by thegiss on May 14, 2009 10:29:11 GMT -5
I also keep stats but mine look more like this: Percentage of times I pound table in frustration at the wire: 23.4 Percentage of photos I win if I'm trying to get a longshot over: 0.4% Percentage of photos I win if it involves me have an even money shot: 96.1% Percentage of times my horse wins if one of my friends calls me "homefree" at 3/4 pole: 5.4% Odds that if a horse breaks in a race I have him on my ticket: 83.3% Sigh, Jim I laughed out loud for 10 minutes after reading that, so true, so true... don 't forget the ever popular Percent of hitting a pick 5 when you have 5 of the 9 horses in the last leg 1.3% That pick 5 percentage increases to 23.6% when you are live with 8 of 9.
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