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Post by jon on Jul 15, 2007 18:30:34 GMT -5
Had to work the last two Northfield cards so only had the dismay of finding out I didn't win ANYTHING instead og watching my horrible picks. By the way, I am playing Flamboro Downs tonight (alive in Pick 4 with 2 favorites..woo hoo)...lol.
My question is what kind of bets are you guys making at northfield. I am truly a Pick 3/4 player with an occasional win bet. I never play exactas or trifectas. Interested to see what you guys are doing.
Thanks
Jon
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Post by the believer on Jul 15, 2007 19:14:16 GMT -5
Hi Jon , i'm also playing Flamboro tonight , hit the 2nd race tri $210.00.
The tri key is still my major type of wager , when i started following Northfield , you basically had Walter Case Jr and Greg Grismore winning at such a rate you had to key them w three other selections , the win /place /show was not the play back then. Times have changed , with a different driver colony at the present time i find myself placing more exacta's and win only wagers on the drivers who in the past i considered low percentage / outside shots to hit the ticket !
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Post by trackrat on Jul 15, 2007 20:34:43 GMT -5
Believer, you are absolutely right. You have to play what they give you. While I rarely play any win bets (and no place/show bets), I will throw a $10 or $20 to win at a well-positioned long shot culled from a suspect field.
Our old friend Cliff Gregory, our mentor and guru, had excellent advice when he preached against betting NW1s and cheap trotters. Better to concentrate your cash on horses with proven abilities.
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Post by jimhorseman on Jul 15, 2007 22:33:31 GMT -5
Nice topic Jon, should generate some nice diversified opinions. I very rarely make a win/place/show wager. Too many times in the past I've made a nice bet with a minute to post on a horse with odds of maybe 4-1 and suddenly as they approach the first quarter pole the horse is now 8-5. I don't like the uncertainty of payoff on win bets.
Over the years I've made several studies of exacta vs trifecta payoffs and in the long run the trifecta wager is more profitable. Let's use a simplified example. There is an eight horse field and as a better you are going to wager the 1-2 exacta for $6.00. Instead for the same cost you could play a trifecta of 1-2-all. Either way you would cash a ticket if you selected the correct exacta (in this case 1-2). The difference is for your $6 you could either having the 1-2 exacta three times or the 1-2-? trifecta one half time (a $1 wager). While it may not seem logical; over a long period of time due to occasional longshots finishing third the trifecta will pay a better return. I did a long study about 7-8 years ago looking at maybe 1,500 races and the trifecta offered just under a 10% better return than the exacta. When I first joined this board over this past winter I did a more abbrievated study using a smaller sample and the result was nearly the same, the exacta paid better more often but the trifecta due to that every so often huge payoff offered better long term results.
The above study has made me a committed trifecta and more recently superfecta better. There are some caveats. Naturally the correct top two horses have to be selected and the race wager must be (assuming an 8 or 9 horse field) $6-$7 or more.
I usually bring a bankroll of $400 - $500 to the racetrack. My average wager per race is probably $30 - $50. I won't go into detail but I only bet a race card I have thoroughly handicapped using a numbered speed rating system as a base to build my selections on. Sadly due to work & family time constrants I have been limited to 3 or 4 race cards per month the past couple of years. When handicapping I can usually dismiss 2-3 horses per race and find 2-3 horses that look better than the rest. I like to make a trifecta wager of my top two horses over my top three horses over all. In a nine horse field that will cost $28. In an average of two to five races per night I can usually spot an animal I think is an absolute single. In that case my bet may be my top horse over the next three best over all in the trifecta. The 1x3xall wager cost is $21 in a nine horse field. Superfectas pay outrageous at Northfield and I have become a big player there in the past year of so. It cost much more to spread so I try to bet a 1x3x3xall ($36) or a 2x2x3xall (also $36). I generally always play all for third (or forth in a superfecta) because after all these years I found that anyone can run third. Every once in a while I break my rule and inevitably pay the price. For example this past friday (July 13th) in race one. In my handicapping I thought the 6 horse Sturdy Trouble was a single. I liked the rail horse or the seven horse to run second. It was such a bad field that I thought I'd save a couple of bucks. My tri bet was the six horse with the one and seven horse with all except the three, four and five for third. I didn't wheel because it was such a bad race I didn't want to invest much into it. So I saved $6 by leaving three horses off for third. Naturally it ran 6-7 with the four horse nosing out the one horse for third. The $6 saved by not wheeling third cost me an almost $730 trifecta. Just that slap in the head the gambling Gods give me every once in a while when I try to save a few dollars on a race.
I do play the picks but not as heavily as the trifecta. The reason is the small pick pools at Northfield. The tri pools are about ten times the pick three pools. I saw two of the pick three pools this past friday not get to $3,000. When the track take is considered there is less than $2,500 available to pay out. I generally will put no more than $24 in a pick three pool. My typical wager is a 2x3x3 which costs $18. I like to play the picks when there looks to be an overwhelming favorite I think I can beat. Again, this past friday Bora Bora Jana looked vulnerable to me. Another win this week against $3,000 claimers would force her to move up in class. She ran a huge race last week winning outside against a tremendous track bias. I figured she might bounce a little off that effort but still would bet to 2-5 or 3-5 by the public so playing the picks by betting against her made financial sense to me. Bora Bora Jana was beat and the pick was huge. Horses with odds of 6-1, 6-1 and 8-5 combined for over a $1,200 pick payoff. I missed the middle 6-1 horse(which is ironic because recently in a thread about drivers I touted how Jason Thompson was improved with his new bike, I didn't use him and he beat me) but thought the potential payoff was worth the wager.
I know my method of playing is against conventional thought where the win bet is favored due to the lower track takeout. However; I keep detailed records of my winnings versus expenses and have shown significant profit each of the past three years. I have had a few dry (losing months) periods but it generally turns around by year's end. 2006 was my best year yet winning approximately $10k over about 40 fully handicapped race cards or an average of over $250 per night. I was helped by a huge late december superfecta hit. I've only been to 15 race cards so far in 2007 but am up $3,200 year to date. A fun hobby that is also profitable. Isn't that what it's all about?
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Post by thegiss on Jul 16, 2007 11:47:09 GMT -5
I know my method of playing is against conventional thought where the win bet is favored due to the lower track takeout. However; I keep detailed records of my winnings versus expenses and have shown significant profit each of the past three years. I have had a few dry (losing months) periods but it generally turns around by year's end. 2006 was my best year yet winning approximately $10k over about 40 fully handicapped race cards or an average of over $250 per night. I was helped by a huge late december superfecta hit. I've only been to 15 race cards so far in 2007 but am up $3,200 year to date. A fun hobby that is also profitable. Isn't that what it's all about? Actually, Ohio favors exotic players. Our WPS takeout is relatively high (18.5%, I think) while ALL exotics are 22% ( I may be half a point off) On three-horse and four-horse wagers (tri, pick 3, super, pick 4) that is one of the lowest non-promo rates in the sport. Still too, high, granted. |
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Post by jay44224 on Jul 16, 2007 14:17:41 GMT -5
A very good question and it got me to thinking as I have no preferred wager. Years ago when you had to run from windoe to window to make a particular bet I would handicap early and figure out what races I would play an exotic or just straight Win, Place Show.
Over the years my wagering choices change quite often. Plying exotics when you are cold can and will drain your dollars - when I feel I am handicapping poorly or second guessing myself - i will not play any exotics usually just a win wager on a race I feel that I have the correct horse if his odds are better than 8 to 1 - then I will double the amount of money bet to win and make a place bet.
When I see my selections hitting the ticket with regularity and confidence is on the up side then I start playing the exotics - I consider it similar to playing blackjack- minimize your bets when you sre struggling and maximize and press when you are hitting.
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Post by thanksforthecash on Jul 16, 2007 23:50:19 GMT -5
As for what I bet..............I'm not good at P3 and P4, so I only play carryovers. I basically leave them to others better at P3 and P4 than me. What bugs me to no end, is that I can be right 3 races out of 4 and get nothing out of it. Instead I concentrate on supers and trifectas. There, I can be right 1 race out of 4, and come out way ahead. I also do exactas, occasionally flat win bet, though not often, and never place or show.
So a story for amusement, and a little handicapping from 2 nights ago. Saturday's 4th race had Aaron's #2 horse as the heavy 1-2 favorite. I keyed both the #2 and Timecando the #3 at 36-1 for 1st, 2nd and 3rd with a few other horses and an all for 4th. (It took multiple bets to do so, of course).
Now just before the race went off, I had a few bucks left, and I had this nagging concern that wouldn't go away not about the longshot #3, but the heavily favored #2. I used to get the condensed past performance, but lately I'd switched to the full past performance, since I no longer print it out. The concern was about the #2 going to the front early in the race. Why? Looking back at the past 10 races, when he does so, he doesn't win. So Aaron had the #2 hole, and who was to his left? Well, Peachfuzz. And we all know Peachfuzz doesn't leave. So I had to believe Aaron would go to the front. He did, of course, doing a retake with the #6 in 28.1. Some horses are simply better at coming from off the pace. Just a few races ago, he had the rail, got out 3rd and did a quarter move to the front. What happened? He finished completely off the ticket, 5th. A couple other times he went to the front early, he didn't win either, though he was on the ticket. So, I decide with the race nearing, and the few bucks sitting idly in my account, I would put the #3 on top and the #2 for 4th. I had to cut down on some of the horses I used due to not having enough $$$ to make the same bet with the #2 for 4th as I did with him 1st, 2nd and 3rd. I quickly placed the wager, then realized I had unintentionally left out the #8 for 3rd. I had $2 left and as fast as I could placed 3/56/8/2. I got it in on time, and turned my attention to the race.
Well, we saw what happened. I was sitting on a $700 exacta with the 36-1 on top, with a 55-1 from the #8 hole for 4th. I felt very good about probably having the only super ticket. Now keep in mind, this was after the drama of enduring an inquiry against the winning #3. I spent those few minutes waiting on the judges by alternately praying, swearing and hoping. Mostly hoping.
Anyway, they announce the payout at $17,500 (I'm rounding). But much to my disappointment, it was the $2 price, not the $1 price. I mean half of $17,500 is nothing to sneeze at, the $8,700 was very close to my best hit ever. More than anything, it was not disappointment at sharing the money with whoever had the other ticket, but that someone else had figured the race, too.
Or so I thought. I looked at my account and was puzzled. There was $13,181 or close to that in there. I was trying to make sense of that, and the only thing that made sense was that I had both winning $1 tickets ($17,500 minus the 25% IRS withholding). But I knew I didn't.
Or so I thought. I had to look back at my wagers to figure out just what the heck had happened. Remember that last second $2 I threw in? The 3/56/8/2? To my amazement I was looking at the second winning ticket. In my hurry to get the bet in under the wire, I had accidentally transposed the #8 and the #2. I had actually bet 3/56/2/8.
An incredible stroke of luck to spend a mere $2 on a ticket, mess up the order of horses I intended, and have the darn thing pay $8,700.
True, as far as that goes. But I really didn't gain a single penny from it. If it wasn't for that last second accidental bet, there would have existed just a single $1 winning ticket, the one I HAD bet AND intended. So, instead of having one ticket pay $17,500, I had 2 tickets pay $8,700 each. Same diff.
So that's Saturday's story. A little more on handicapping, now. Why key Timecando the #3 36-1 shot? Granted, he was moving up in class. But this was not an especially strong field, I didn't feel it was a big move up. And ever since coming in from Raceway, he had been doing nothing but picking up checks, even when he has outside posts. Here, he was moving inside, and I felt the heavy favorite was vulnerable. And you've probably noticed most Raceway horse coming in here (SleepyTime Forever tonight was an obvious exception), don't get bet heavily. I expected good value from Timecando, but 36-1 is certainly more than I expected. And one more thing. Attempting to put the 55-1 shot #8 for 3rd and the 1-2 favorite #2 for 4th, was not that far fetched. Aaron only beat the bomb by 1 and 1/4 lengths, and we've already gone over the history of Aaron's #2 horse when he goes to the front early.
Anyway, I think Jason Thompson on a bomb fits with what the Believer was saying about now betting drivers that in the past he would not touch. Also, keeping in mind other posts about Wyatt and Jason doing well lately, using the new bikes.
Naturally, after a great Saturday, I had a lousy night tonight. Probably to be expected.
I'll note before signing off, that I enjoy reading Jay the most, though that doesn't count the absent Cliff. But it's good to read a whole spectrum of views from all.
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Post by jon on Jul 17, 2007 5:59:20 GMT -5
Thanksforthecash,
truly awesome story!!! Can't imagine winning that kind of cash!!! Which leads me to mynext question.
What is everyones biggest score they ever made? Mine was 3K at los Alamitos (Pick 4).
jon
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Post by trackrat on Jul 17, 2007 6:31:39 GMT -5
Jon, welcome to the board (again) and I might add that you certainly jumped in quickly as a participant and we welcome that. New perspectives and fresh ideas help to make this forum the best Northfield handicapping board around, although we are still in our relative infancy as a discussion board.
Looking back over the years, my biggest single hit was a $3,000 superfecta. I generally shy away from the harder exotic bets (Pick 3s, Pick 4s and superfectas) and stick to the exactas and trifectas. In that regard, I have had probably one hundred $1,000 nights over the last thirty years, usually with $20 exacta boxes. I try to stay under the IRS radar, but I usually have five or six "signers" every year.
I hope you decide to join our monthly handicapping contest when the August contest begins. Let me know ahead of time, so that I can add you to the format and the spreadsheet.
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Post by the believer on Jul 17, 2007 6:35:50 GMT -5
Congrats thanksforthecash on the big win , loved the story and the way you told it ! The board is fortunate to have so many great members with a history of harness racing stories to tell!
Jon , keep up those great thought provoking questions . The most ever won , when a teenager at SMALL Bellville ,Ont track where you got small payouts , i too had the only exacta paying $500, seemed like $17,000 to a kid ! Recently in May at Harrington , i had a $1 on a $6640.00 trifecta !
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Post by jimhorseman on Jul 17, 2007 10:32:27 GMT -5
Thanksforthecash: Fantastic hit, my congratulations. Nice job of handicapping. A week ago or so I mentioned in a thread to keep an eye on Jason Thompson as he will bring in some nice price horses now that he bought one of the new advantage bikes. Wish I was listening to my own advice. He beat me out of friday's pick four and I didn't bet him saturday night. He won't win at a high percentage but when he does it will be at a nice price.
This past december was my biggest hit. Anthony Morgan was here the last couple days of the month in order to try and break the driver win record. He was being heavily bet in every race on every horse he was on. My thought was once he broke the record he was done for the night. He did get that elusive win in friday's second race aboard Eden Roc. The 4th race came and he was bet down to something like 2-5 in the superfecta race. I bet against him, using his horse only for 3rd. Aaron Merriman won on Coluptous at 10-1 and Tom Hall ran second at 35-1. I had the super for a dollar which paid over $12,000 for two. I was so excited to cash my superfecta ticket I almost forgot I also had the tri and exacta for a dollar. I cashed for over $8,000 that one race and for the night came home with a total of $9,600. Great way to end 2006 and made it my most profitable year ever.
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