Rain

[jon]

Serious question,

I notice tomorow is going to be a very rainy day in the Cleveland area. My question to all of you is do you handicap differently when the track is sloppy, handicap as normal, or not play that card?

Thanks in advance,

jon

[jay44224]

I always handicap in advance and assume the track is fast - if the conditions change I become flexible. I take notice to things as is the inside of the track heavy especially the passing lane where are the horses at the half that have won the the first few races. In Particular I have one in tomorrow that when it is an off track he does well if he is on the lead or first up- he can not tolerate mud in his face he will gap until he gets a clear lane then advance.

I especially watch the warm ups as I like to see which horses are grabbing the track and which ones seem to be slipping - another words- I will not bet unless I am at the track itself

[jimhorseman]

I hate the rain!!!

Due to my work schedule, my helping daughters with homework schedule (mon-thurs night) and some consulting work I do Friday is by far the most convenient night for me to visit the racetrack. It seemed as if it rained every friday this past spring.

Honestly, I usually pass on wagering or only make minimal bets on a sloppy track. At Northfield it seems to me the outside is dead in the slop, nothing can get the footing needed to close. Northfield; especially on the turns, seems sloped a bit towards the rail. This has a two fold effect. First the outside paths are very slick and as I just stated it makes it hard for a closer to gain ground. Second, the water/mud seems to collect in the passing lane which makes it hard to pass a horse from the inside.

On a sloppy track; in my unscientific opinion, a horse needs to be within a couple lengths of the lead at the quarter pole to have any chance to win. Give me a list of the 3-4 horses at the quarter pole who are within a couple of the lead and I'll crush the exacta box at the windows. Seems as if that would make it an easy wagering night. Not so fast.

On sloppy tracks horses with sharp drivers leave for position that rarely show leaves in the past performances. Many traditional leavers; especially the farther outside they are have trouble with the slick first turn surface and don't fire out. Some horses run better in the mud and they do find position early when traditional handicapping would not call for that to happen. As said previously if I could bet at the quarter pole it would be easy money. Since I need to bet before they go to the gate I'm just guessing and I refuse to wager my hard earned money that way.

There is an angle I do like involving sloppy tracks and that is the week after the sloppy track races. Many good horses pull with little success. There is no forward movement due to the track condition or maybe they had cover that couldn't handle the track or maybe the passing lane was too gooey to gain ground in. These good horses are often underlays the following week as many ordinary handicappers (that of course does not apply to this board) place an over emphasis on the bad slop line and discount the horse. If I see a horse has pulled and shown some forward movement on a sloppy track even if it means going from 7th to 5th with a couple length gain I give that performance added credit. It has led to some nice payoffs for me over the last year or two.