Saturday Night Challenge

[cliff]

Let's try something different Saturday night. I'm a pretty big pick3, Pick4 player, especially on Saturdays, so let's see what we can do with these exotic wagers.

Rules:

All wagers are based on $1. Make selections in each of the following:

pick5 - starts race 3.
1st pick3 - races 6,7,8
pick4 - races 8,9,10,11
2nd pick3 - races 9,10,11
final pick3 - races 12,13,14


You may wheel as many horses in each race as you like, and spend as much as you like ($1 base bet). We will tally the winnings less the amount spent. The winner will be the contestant with the best positive outcome.

If no contestant has a positive outcome, we will declare it a "no contest". You don't necessarily need to place a wager in each case (but what fun would that be), but you need to place at least one wager to be entered.

In the unlikely event a contestant scores a pick4 or pick5 combination that no one in the real world has, that contestant will be declared the automatic winner, having won the entire pool.

Scratches will be dealt with like they do in the real world, contestants will be given the post time favorite to replace the scratched horse.

Entries are due by first race post time.

I think I've covered everything. If the rules are unclear, just ask.

Good luck

[trackrat]

Pick 5: 1346/1234/12456/2/156 = $240

First Pick 3 [Races 6-7-8] = 25/156/12346 = $30

Pick Four [Races 8-9-10-11] = 12346/1267/4567/135 = $240

Middle Pick 3 [Races 9-10-11] = 1267/4567/135 = $48

Final Pick 3 [Races 12-13-14] = 249/2345/1238 = $48


Total wagered: $616

[cliff]

Pick 5: 3469/12/1457/12/12 = $128

First Pick 3 [Races 6-7-8] = 125/126/1 = $9

Pick Four [Races 8-9-10-11] = 1/27/45/13 = $8

Middle Pick 3 [Races 9-10-11] = 27/45/135 = $12

Final Pick 3 [Races 12-13-14] = 129/257/3 = $9


Total wagered: $166

Good Luck Everyone

[the believer]

Pick 5.....368/12/134/126/126 = $162

First pick [races 6-7-8] 126/126/1457 =$36

Pick 4 [races 8-9-10-11] 1457 / 27 / 457 /359 =$72

Middle Pick 3 [ races 9-10-11 ] 27 / 457 / 359 = $18

Final Pick 3 [ races 12-13-14 ] 29/245/ 238 =$18

total wagered =$306

Good Luck to all !

[jimhorseman]

Pick 5:

36 with 1246 with 125 with 12 with 1256 = $192

First Pick Three: Races 6-8:

12 with 1256 with 134 = $24

Pick Four:

134 with 237 with 2456 with 35 = $72

Middle Pick Three: Races 9-11:

237 with 2456 with 2456 = $48

Final Pick Three: Races 12-14:

12 with 25 with 239 = $12

Total = $348

Best of Luck to All !!!

[cliff]

Well the results are in, and except for one of our participants, it wasn't pretty. First the results, then a few comments.

Jimhorseman $2,426.80 profit
Cliff (124.40)
believer (264.40)
trackrat (574.40)

Congratulations Jim for being the only one to show a profit, and a handsome one at that. Jim successfully solved the pick4 and middle pick3 where value horses Chust Chudy and Yankee Colburn beat the favorites and resulted in huge payouts.

Can we learn something from this exercise? Perhaps. Many of you know I have a set of "rules" that govern my approach to wagering. When I stick to the rules, I generally do ok, or at least I don't get knocked out of the game with foolish wagers. Last night I and others broke a couple of those rules and paid the price, at least in virtual dollars.

Trackrat came the closest to solving the pick5, but broke one of the rules:

"Never single a trotter in a p3, p4, or p5 no matter how good it looks on paper." The rat singled #2 Genesis Royalimage in the 6th race and it cost him the wager. Granted the trotter was the best in the race, but does show breaks in his lines. Now then I followed this rule and included #1 Strategic Win in my wager. After all he showed no recent breaks and won his last three starts from the rail. So what happens? He breaks at the start and is out of it. Beaten favorite, #5 Giulio, trots on to win. Unlike Jim I failed to include the horse even though I knew Wyatt Irvine had had much success with him in the past, and noted as much in my picks. The corollary to this rule, is that you can never play too many trotters in a gimmick such as this.

Another of my rules for wagering these gimmicks is:

"Always include a horse who won its last race even with a move up in class" I broke that rule playing the p4, and 2nd p3 by leaving out #3 Chust Chudy in the 9th race. Two other trotters in this race looked unbeatable, at least in my subjective opinion. If I went solely by the numbers generated by my algorithm, she had a pretty decent chance, third best in fact. As I noted before, in a trot one cannot play too many horses.

Well, I hope it was fun, and an interesting challenge. In my case it was a teachable moment that reinforced a couple of my sacred rules. It's your turn now...any feedback is welcomed.

[trackrat]

The Trackrat's disclaimer: I have never wagered a Pick Five in real life, probably only 2-3 Pick Fours and no Pick 3s. I probably took all of five minutes to configure all of the exotic wagers in this challenge. Probably took me longer to type them than to actually decide which ones to include. Interesting, though.

I made it to the track in enough time to successfully key Dan Charlino with Yankee Coburn (5-1) over Hogue's Rockie (15-1) and Captain Korki (25-1), even though I had to wait out an objection by John Green against Charlino. I was somewhat disappointed in the trifecta payout ($600+). Thought it should have been over $1,000 with the two favorites off the board.

[jimhorseman]

Interesting that Cliff declared he was a pretty big pick player while Trackrat went the other way and stated he virtually never plays a pick bet. I'm between the two of you though I lean a little more to Trackrat's thinking than Cliff's. I only will play a pick five if there is at least a two day carryover, make small pick three investments and generally a moderate size pick four wager.

Pool size or perhaps lack of pool size is the reason why I don't concentrate on these wagers. Hitting a pick five is tough enough but knowing there is probably $1200 - $1500 in the pool before takeout makes it a poor investment in my eyes. The pick fours without a carryover are generally in the $3500 to $5000 range which make them just interesting enough for me to make an up to $30 dollar wager. The pick three pools are about half the size of the pick four before takeout and that makes them fairly unappealing to me. If I like a horse going off at maybe 5-1 or better I may single that horse with a spread in the other two legs hoping for a decent sized payoff. Otherwise I'd rather play a trifecta where the pool size (depending on what races California gets to wager on) can vary from the low $20,000's to over $50,000. I'd rather take a bigger shot into that type of pool than what the picks offer.

I'll take one of Cliff's rules one step further. I almost never single a trotter in a pick or trifecta wager. If a favorite trotter is in a two hole I will always try to beat the horse. Way back when I owned a horse or two several trainers or drivers mentioned that the two hole was the worse inside spot for a trotter, especially in a nine horse field. The two horse must decide at the gate to either push hard into the first turn to loop the rail horse or pull back far enough to fall behind the nine horse. Drivers told me at a half mile track it seems hard to fire out a trotter from the two hole as the turn is just sharp enough to encourage a break in stride. Pulling behind the nine horse may result in getting out 6th or 7th off the gate which is tough to overcome.

Being a bit of a math nerd back in the day I went through about 6 months worth of trotting races from the Buffalo and Northfield circuit. Most of the Buffalo races were 8 horse fields and most of the Northfield horses were 9 horse fields. At both tracks post position 2 resulted in more breaks of stride from trotters than any of the other starting spots by a significant margin. If I remember correctly at the Northfield races the 2 post broke stride almost twice as much as posts 3 to 8. The rail and 9 hole were second in breaks about halfway between posts 3-8 and 1-9. My friend Jack is also a disciple of trying to beat a heavy trotting favorite from 2 holes. I did that study perhaps ten years ago but from my general observations I would think the numbers are pretty similiar today.

I looked at Saturday night's trotting results:

Race 1: Four Starz Motor left from 2 hole as 3:2 favorite. Got out 7th by 15 1/2 at quarter and finished second.

Race 3: Da Rooster got out 8th by 13 from the two hole and finished last as a longshot.

Race 6: Genesis Royal Image left from the two hole and obtained the lead as the 6:5 favorite but faded and finished 4th.

Race 9: Extreme Makeover pulled back at the start as the 6:5 favorite from post two, tried to brush up after the first quarter and broke stride. Came back on to run 3rd.

Race 11: So Fly from post two was 5 lengths out at 1/4 and never in serious contention.

Three heavy favorites from post position two trot races that did not win.

I quickly looked at the December trot races at Northfield. There have been 30 trots to date and post two has broken stride in four of those races. Four heavy favorites have been beaten from post two. There have been 3 winners in the 30 races but one is arguably as the rail horse broke stride well before the start and thus in essance the 2 horse was the rail horse so I might argue there have been 2 legitimate trot wins from post two in 30 races. Yes, a small sample and yes, the two hole trotter who is favored will win some but if a handicapper is looking for a small angle in pick or trifecta wagers trying to beat two hole trotters is one I recommend.

[cliff]

That's some interesting info on trotters, Jim. I hadn't really heard or thought of that angle. I do know that some trotters have a problem leaving from the rail. I remember a while back I bet against Dunkster who had drawn the rail and was an overlay on the field. He had broken the last two times he was on the rail, and sure enough he broke again that night. However typically I have a problem wagering, with a strategy of hoping the favorite breaks. In fact I bet very few trot races at all, not only because of their propensity for breaking, but also because they are much less consistent than pacers, Krissy K being the exception to the rule. I do use the trots as a vehicle for adding value to the pick3 and pick4 wagering schemes. My theory being to use the uncertainty of the trots to my advantage. We saw exactly what I mean when Guilio and Yankee Coburn beat the favorites.

I agree that the pick5 is pretty much a sucker bet, I wish Northfield would scrap it in favor of an early pick3, or better yet, rolling pick3's, but so far that plea has fallen on deaf ears. I don't think the pools would suffer as the early pick3 would attract probably twice as much as the pick5 without a carry over typically does. I do occasionally take a flyer on the pick5 when I can single three of the races and there are only a couple of contenders in the other two. I hit a $200 payoff the other week with a $4 ticket. That type of thing happens often enough that I will put up to $10 at risk a couple times a month.

I'm less concerned about the pool sizes than I am about the potential payout. My biggest wagers are to win. I will play tri's and super's (seldom exactas), but I find it more difficult to predict who will finish on the ticket without wheeling in too many horses. If there are some definite throw aways, then I will wheel what remains behind my pick. I use the pick3 and pick4 to leverage winners into bigger payouts. I don't like to play chalk, but sometimes it's hard to get them beat. I like to play pick3's straight when I have a value horse in one of the legs, and I can't beat chalk in the other two. The pick3 may be only $30 or $40 but a $20 straight bet yields $300 or $400. That's like putting $20 on a 20-1 shot and hitting, a rare occurrence indeed. I also like to play a smaller amount when I can single one of the races, have the contenders in another leg narrowed down to two or three, and have one leg (often a trot) that is almost impossible to handicap. If chalk is beaten in all three legs the payout is generally pretty good.

The pick4 is perhaps my favorite wager, although I skip it half the time. I need to be able to single one of the races, have two legs narrowed to two or three, and have one race that is wide open. Similar to the pick3 strategy, when you hit the pick4 the payout can be very lucrative. It's more difficult to play the pick4 straight, although I have played $5 wagers, singling two of the legs, and playing only two or three horses in the other legs. The outcome is usually pretty chalky, but having it multiple times results in a nifty profit.

At Northfield on Saturdays I find it more difficult to pick winners than other days of the week, because the races are generally of better stock and more competitive. Not like back in the day when we had an invite plus top claimers, but still more difficult than the rest of the week. That's the day I really like using the pick gimmicks, so that is why I suggested this challenge format.

[jimhorseman]

Good conversation Cliff.

It's obvious that the pick five in it's current form is not working at Northfield. My suggestions would be either try a 50 cent minimum pick five wager or scrap the pick five and replace it with a second pick four. I think either idea could work. Pick four wagers on perhaps races 2-6 as well as 8-11 with the in between race 7 being a superfecta race might be interesting. To initially create some buzz perhaps Northfield could guarantee a minimum pool amount on the pick four wagers ($5,000?). This tactic has been used successfull at the T-bred tracks and some harness tracks (Cal X & Meadowlands).

[trackrat]

Dec 13, 2009 19:31:22 GMT -5 cliff said:

At Northfield on Saturdays I find it more difficult to pick winners than other days of the week, because the races are generally of better stock and more competitive. Not like back in the day when we had an invite plus top claimers, but still more difficult than the rest of the week. That's the day I really like using the pick gimmicks, so that is why I suggested this challenge format.

Cliff, interesting admission about Saturdays. I've shied away from Saturdays for years because the competition was too evenly matched for me. Prior to this past two years, I primarily wagered on Mondays and Fridays, but with the decline of racing stock the last two years, I've been concentrating mostly on Fridays. Lately, I've been testing Northfield on Saturdays and have had modest success.... probably because the horse lineup seems fresher to me than watching the same Friday night fields over and over again.

[the believer]

Congratulations to Jim on hitting the pick4 and a pic3 as well to win the challenge.
I like Trackrat seldom play pick 3's, 4's ,5's etc , the majority of wagers are tri's and win wagers. A few years back i tried to hit a few pic3 and 4's but didn't have much success so i went back to my steady diet of tri's and win bets. When you think about it , the pic3 and 4's are a daily double with an extra race or two and i do play those regularily.
I enjoyed the challenge and have learned some new tips thanks to both Cliff and Jim , hope we do this again soon.

[the believer]

Interesting how we have our days of the week we like to wager , some like the F&M 's ,some like the maiden and young horse's that pay large for many reasons , some love to wager cards with lots of claiming races ( yes Giss - optional claimers too). This time of year it seems that Mondays and Tuesday's lack the leading drivers , i'm sure that makes it tough to handicap but for some it's a chance to hit a big one . The better the stock , the better the driver's = more predictable performances and therefore handicapping is tougher
I've always enjoyed the Saturday Northfield cards the best , quality of horses and drivers to watch and or wager on has normally been very good !

[cliff]

Dec 13, 2009 13:29:45 GMT -5 cliff said:

Another of my rules for wagering these gimmicks is:

"Always include a horse who won its last race even with a move up in class"

Should be an easy lesson, right? Well, I guess not. On Monday (12/14) I played the following pick4 ticket:

2/123469/9/129 for $1 - $18 total

The logic was impeccable, I single the two pace races with horses I thought were unbeatable, and loaded up the trots where the uncertainty was high. If you still have your program, you can follow along:

#2 Empire State easily won the first leg as projected, and Redders' #2 Needed Vacation won the second leg at 5-1. (won easily last week and moving up in class, so I knew enough to include him).

I'm already counting my money when what happens in the third leg. #9 Exceptional Toy races first up on the outside the whole mile, finally clears and looks like a winner, when #6 Climb The Ladder sheds cover and comes on to win. This horse won last week by over 5 lengths, was moving up in class, moving outside, and trading Robin Miller for Ken Koch.

The 40+ to one shot blew up my ticket and then Bill Irvine's #2 I Da Girl wins the last leg at 7-1 resulting in a 2/2/6/2 combination that no one had. My ticket was worth a little over $40 (3 of 4), so I more than doubled my money, but how sweet it would have been if I played by the rules and collected the whole pool.

It happened again Tuesday night when I wasn't playing. In the sixth race, #6 Mystical Ways beats the favorite at 35-1 and blows up all pick5 tickets for those foolish enough to have made that wager, and helped the pick3 in races 6,7,8 to go unsolved as well. Mystical Ways happened to win the week before, was moving up in class, and drawing outside as well.

Now you know why it's one of my rules that is broken at one's peril.