Wagering the Shippers

[trackrat]

Late in each racing year, Northfield sees an influx of shippers from tracks that have closed for the year (Scioto, Colonial Downs, Indy, etc.) and these shippers represent new money-making opportunities for the handicapper.

As a handicapper, what do you consider in assessing a shipper's chances at Northfield? Do you wager right off the bat, or do you wait a week or two to see how the shipper handles the Northfield flying turns? Are the speed ratings in the Northfield program valid and are they part of your assessment process?

Let's open this up for discussion and see if we can share some thoughts about wagering the shippers.

[the believer]

Wait a week approach in most cases, the shipping alone can be hard on some horses who don't truck well . The flying turns i would say are valid time wise but never a fan of comparing times of different size tracks ; example Colonial to NFLD....take a look at the horse Deliver the Rules times from his last start at Colonial to his first at Northfield recently.

[jimhorseman]

I'm with Believer on this one. Shippers from bigger tracks (Colonial, Meadows, Indiana) tend to be overbet their first time here. My guess is that many handicappers just look at the faster times of the big tracks and assume they will translate to Northfield. Of the bigger tracks it seems the Indiana horses seem to have the most initial success. Recently it looked as if the Otto trained horses from Indiana came in sharp.

[cliff]

Sorry I haven't posted sooner, been busy.

I generally handicap the shippers like the rest of the field. In many cases they ship them to Northfield because they are not racing all that well. If that is the case, then yes, I wait to see how they perform in the new surroundings.

It may be a case that we have seen the horse here before. In that instance we have a line on where the horse may fit with its competition.

Because they are generally racing for more money elsewhere, the horse may be shoved into a higher class here. It may take a few starts to drop back to its normal class.

I also take a hard look at the trainers, and which drivers the entry attracts. For example, we knew it was only a matter of time before the Deaton/Sloan and Otto horses would be plays at Northfield.

A lot to consider for sure. If there are too many variables and unknowns, then it is always a good idea to pass the race, or as I like to do, use it for its uncertainty in a pick3 or pick4 play.

As far as speed ratings are concerned, I think they are useless. i don't believe they've changed them forever, and tracks tend to evolve. For example, the Meadows is a much faster track now than it used to be. I tend to pay more attention to the class of the competition and who was drivng, than the speed of the races.

[trackrat]

Cliff, how did you arrive at your conclusion that the Meadows is a faster track than it used to be? By comparing horses that have raced at both Northfield and the Meadows?

I've been under the impression that the faster times at the Meadows was the result of better stock racing there for the higher purses.

[cliff]

Dec 17, 2009 18:07:06 GMT -5 trackrat said:

Cliff, how did you arrive at your conclusion that the Meadows is a faster track than it used to be? By comparing horses that have raced at both Northfield and the Meadows?

I've been under the impression that the faster times at the Meadows was the result of better stock racing there for the higher purses.

A good point about the better stock racing there, I'm sure it promotes faster racing times. However, the speed rating for the meadows is 1:59.2 compared to Northfield's 2:00. No one will convince me that the Meadows is only three lengths faster than Northfield.

There haven't been as many shippers from Pa this year as in previous seasons, but yes I have compared their times. Also I have an indirect comparison by using the times between the Meadows and the Meadowlands. I do follow and wager the Meadowlands and there are many occasions where Meadows horses ship to NJ. The Meadowlands speed rating is 1:56.3 which I find to be about right compared to Northfield. I observe that the times of Meadows shippers to the Meadowlands do not improve markedly as one would expect coming from a "slower" 5/8's track. They do improve some, but certainly not three seconds. The same can be said for horses coming from Pocono or Chester, two other lightning fast 5/8's tracks.

I also look at Trackmaster's speed ratings. In the past they also were useless when comparing track to track. However in the last couple years they have changed their formula or improved their calculations to the point where they now offer valid comparisons. The TM speed ratings are also adjusted for post position and track conditions, but they still present a valid handicapping tool. ( I further adjust the numbers to get a final "true speed/class number" for my own use, but that is beyond the scope of this discussion).

Meadows horses coming to Northfield with the same general TM speed ratings seem to run six or seven lengths slower at Northfield than they do at the Meadows, every thing else being equal (which of course it seldom is).

As an exercise let's see what Dunkster does tonight in race 11. He has been racing at the Meadows with speed ratings in the low 90's. His times have ranged from 1:55.4 to 1:57.1. Northfield trotters with comparable speed ratings (there are a few) are racing 1:58 and above. Let's see what time Dunkster has tonight. Might not be definitive in as much as he has been off a month, but interesting just the same.