over analyzing

[the believer]

Last night 11 th race i used as my contest wager

Your first selection is often your best .

My first choice after a quick once over was 3-2-6-1 and after much time handicapping this race i came up with these reasons for switching from the eventulal #3 to the #2

reasons
A- #3 up in class

B #3 going for 4 wins in a row

C- Placed to much emphasis on driver (Charlino) on the #2 , he chose the #2 over two other horses he had driven regulary over the past 6 weeks and the #3 was one of them

so i changed my selection and missed out on a very nice trifecta

[trackrat]

Taylor, if we all could cash the tickets that we talked ourselves out of, we would be wealthy guys.

[trackrat]

Taylor, you overanalyze and I underestimate, but we arrive at the same conclusion... missed opportunity. In my case, I seem to always underestimate the positive effect that Dan Charlino has on an outside horse. It may just be perception, but he seems to know how to position those outside horses early in the race so that they can be in striking position late. That comes from MANY years of experience.

[jimhorseman]

In my case I often get caught up in numbers and formulas that sometimes I forget to get my head out of the program and trust what my eyes see. Horses run in cycles. Sharp horses with good drivers and inside posts win. Shelbys Muneymaker this past Friday is a perfect example. I wouldn't use the super sharp horse with Charlino driving because the horse was again moving up in company and my formula didn't like that. Instead I went to an off form horse because it was dropping down and had ok suck along numbers. As the Believer stated to begin the thread just going with your first instinctive selection is usually a good route to success.