Call me stupid

[gtapp]

How can it be

In the 8th race the winner yesterday was 50 to 1. and paid $114.20 place was 27.80 and show was 6.20

The exacta paid $568.80 and the trifecta ONLY $956.80 I WOULD HAVE THOUGHT THAT WOULD HAVE PAID MUCH MUCH MORE.

How does that happen? Is it because there were a lot of winners? Is it because not many people are betting Northfied?

[trackrat]

Gtapp, I was wondering about that trifecta too. It is WAY too low for those odds, even with a scratch in the field. Compare that trifecta payout to the second race, where there was a 5-1, a 1.5-1 and a 14-1 finishing 1-2-3 for $771.40. How can the eighth race with a 50-1, a 17-1 and a 11-1 pay only $200 more??

There was a scratch and from the chart, it looks like two horses were off stride before the start, including the overwhelming favorite. Maybe someone placed his wager right before the gate opened, knowing the favorite was offstride, making it a wide open race. Rose Run Ichabod is not that bad a horse and from an inside post, presented an opportunity. Maybe Giss can tell us where the money came from.

Followup: just watched the race replay and #4 Extravagent Manner [the favorite] was off-stride at the top of the stretch approaching the starting wire... plenty of time for a gate watcher to finalize a wager AGAINST the #4.

[scojer]

Was at the track and after the race was over,2 of us were talking and agreed the ex may go $1,000.And here the tri missed the mark.WOW.Someone had to have about $20 in Tri tickets themselves.My guess is the bets were made at a off track site.[like always]

[harness27]

i wouldnt be suprised if they looked into that race that a few drivers had that 8th race trifecta

[thegiss]

We are loooking into it, but initial appearance is a gate call, expecially (as noted) with Extarvagant Manner offstride early.

[ramblingwillie]

Well don't call me stupid. There's something fishy going here. Still wondering what the results of the investigation revealed??? Hopefully Keith can update us.
There's no way this could be a gate call. Although the favorite broke stride before the start all others were away clean. The 1 horse and 7 horse broke after the start. Who in their right mind going to gate call $20 tri's with a 50-1 shot on top? Or for that matter who would ever bet $20 tri's 2-a-a or a-8-a or a-a-7 meaning you have at least $840 worth of losing tickets before the race even starts.

There was only $143 to win on the winnner out of $10,009 or 1.4% of the win pool.

However there was $2717 worth of tri's with the #2 first out of $46,993 or 5.8%. Normally exotic pools(tri's and exactas) are very proportional to win pools with only slight variences however this is 4x as much. Obviously somebody knew something and instead of betting to win they hid the horse by betting the tri.

$46,993 total tri pool - 22.5% track take-out = $36,419/$956.80=38 $2 tickets or 76 $1 tickets

Really?!?!? 76 $1 tri's on this combination?? Of the @2717 tri tickets sold with #2 on top 2.8% correctly had this combination.

This may sound right to some people however let me assure you this isnt even remotely close.The probability of success is a little tricky to calculate for a trifecta. It's what called a "dependent-probabilty" calculation. You are asking for 3 different things to happen that are not entirely independent. Consider an ABC trifecta. Your asking for horse A to win, followed by horse B to come in exactly second followed by horse C coming in exactly third given the AB exacta. The formula to compute this possibility in term of win odds is:

P(ABC)=1/ [(A x (B+1))-1] x (c+1)

In our case 1/[(56 x (17+1))-1] x (11+1)
1/12084 = 0.00008275 or 0.00827541% yeah a 12,084-1 shot
So our payoff should have been $24,168 for a $2 ticket. Since the tri pool was $36,419 basically there should have been 3 tickets on this combination.

WOW! Can we say UNDERLAY! The payoff was 13x less then what it should be.

As far as the exacta goes here's a break down of the exactas with the #2 on top

Exacta Pool $22,642 - 22.5% $5094 = $17,547
Will Pays
2-1 41 $2 tickets $428.00
2-3 71 $2 tickets $247.00
2-4 47 $2 tickets $373.00
2-5 28 $2 tickets $626.00
2-7 33 $2 tickets $531.00
2-8 30 $2 tickets $587.00
2-9 40 $2 tickets $439.00

Interesting to note that the 2-3 exacta was paying $130 less then the 2-4(the favorite) exacta. Also it's interesting to note that the winning exacta albeit with the 2nd longest shot on the board was not the highest paying combination.

Fair pay on an exacta = Bet size x (win odds on first horse) x (win odds place horse + 1)/track payback

In our case 2 x 56 x 18 = 2016/.775 = $2601

Still a terrible underlay but not as bad as the tri as this was only.... 5x less then the fairpay.

Oh yeah, and the horse won easy too. It's not like there was a pace meltdown and he won by default. Instead of waiting for the stretch to pull, he pulled at the 3/4 pole and won going way just like a 56-1 shot should.

Anyway I'm looking forward to an explanation.

By the way I'm not a statistician but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. ;D

[trackrat]

Willie, while you seem to have illustrated the statistical improbability of bettors legitimately betting the winning trifecta combination, there are other betting factors that you may have overlooked, including:

1) Was Hershberger's horse a false favorite at 2-5, coming off two breaks in previous starts, thus pushing up the odds on all the other horses in the field?
2) Was Hershberger's horse deliberately bet heavy to drive up the odds on the other horses?

Add in the following racing factors:
1) Merriman's horse [Air Louie] was hard pressed to make the top at the 1/4 mark, even with a slow quarter, taking some gas away from him;
2) With the scratch of the #6 and the breaking of the #1 and #4, the two outside horses (#7 and #8) had three less horses to maneuver around, making them more competitive.

I have to tell you that I may not have had Myrick's horse on top in a straight trifecta, but I am fairly certain I would have had the 2-3-7-8 in a $1 box for $24. I would have been sweating when Charlino's horse broke at the start, but ultimately I would have gone to the cashier's window.

[thegiss]

May 12, 2010 10:11:48 GMT -5 thegiss said:

We are loooking into it, but initial appearance is a gate call, expecially (as noted) with Extarvagant Manner offstride early.

Large gate call at Harrington (3 $10 all but the fave boxes) madw tithin four seconds of each other and within five seconds of the rac going off.

[ramblingwillie]

Thanks for the update Keith. However still something doesnt add up. A 7 horse tri box is $210 for a $1 so a $10 box is $2100 x 3 is $6300. Meaning the tri would have to come back at $425 for $2 just to break even. As it turned out "it just so happened" that the race finished the best possible way and the guy still only made 1.30 - 1 on his money. Sure a nice $8040 profit, but a very unwise investment, unless that is he/they are crazy like a fox. Eithier the person who made the bet was extremely stupid or it was done purposely to make it "look" good. Also I just watched the reply again and while watching it I tried to call the bet in my mind "$10 tri box 1,2,3,5,7,8,9" and it's not that easy to do...try it, and then imagine trying to do it while at the track watching the monitor and having to remember its the #4 who broke and that the #6 was scratched all the while hoping the teller gets it right. Unless of course he had "inside information" that the #4 would be breaking before the start and had already told the teller in advance what the bet was going to be and was waiting to make sure the horse broke according to "plan". Speaking of tellers how comfortable would a teller be taking $6300 worth of bets right as the race goes off? Call me a conspiracy theorist if you'd like but IMO I think this still warrants further investigation.

[ramblingwillie]

Oh by the way one more question. Where did the other 23 $2 tickets or 46 $1 tickets come from??? Even if we take out the $30 worth that this guy had we still only come up with a $1583 tri for $2 ticket.

[thegiss]

May 18, 2010 2:41:29 GMT -5 ramblingwillie said:

Oh by the way one more question. Where did the other 23 $2 tickets or 46 $1 tickets come from??? Even if we take out the $30 worth that this guy had we still only come up with a $1583 tri for $2 ticket.

There was an additional $10 box gate called at Philly Park and a $1 box gate called elsewhere.

While the race continues to be investigated, this is a growing trend, along with the birdge jump show bets taht have become far more common. What is happening is risk arbitrageurs are moving out of the stock market and into horse racing, using what amounts to porgram trading to eke out small returns (for horse racing) but huge returns as compared to day trades.

And, having said all that to explain andjustify this payoff, there is precedent. Several years ago a coincidental gate call by an uninvolved individual yielding a suspicious price, is what led to a trio of veteran drivere being told we would no longer do business with them.

[hundredtowin]

Makes sense that it was a gate call. If you had inside info that the 4 was no good, why even wait until 4 seconds before the start of the race. I also think you could get more creative than just boxing the field, even though it worked out great.

As far as punching in the tickets, I think these guys basically have the ticket punched in and only print it if their key horse breaks before the start. If the horse doesn't break - no bet.

Having said this, It obviously seems extreme to put up $6300.

[trackrat]

I've been behind some of these gate callers at the automatic tote machines... they have their wagers already keyed in and keep one eye on the moving gate as it enters the stretch... if the right horse breaks, they merely print the ticket instantaneously. Pisses me off because they tie up the machine until the gate opens and I lose my betting opportunity. One night I spent the entire evening jumping ahead of this one particular guy and tying up the machine so he couldn't make his wagers. Some kids never grow up!!

[thegiss]

May 18, 2010 17:11:43 GMT -5 trackrat said:

I've been behind some of these gate callers at the automatic tote machines... they have their wagers already keyed in and keep one eye on the moving gate as it enters the stretch... if the right horse breaks, they merely print the ticket instantaneously. Pisses me off because they tie up the machine until the gate opens and I lose my betting opportunity. One night I spent the entire evening jumping ahead of this one particular guy and tying up the machine so he couldn't make his wagers. Some kids never grow up!!

At many tracks players have hand held terminals called Tiny Tims which allow them to literally sit at their table and not even get in line. I used one at Saratoga years ago and it was great...the technology has improved since then.

And I would ten to agree that if there was more to this, an all-all-all-except 4 box makes little sense.