|
|
Post by cliff on May 27, 2010 22:50:05 GMT -5
Just finished handicapping Friday's card...fillies and mares, used to be one of my favorite nights of wagering. "Used to be" being the operative phrase. No F&M Open (again), and a general lack of interesting races. I point to race 7 as the most egregious example. Aaron Merriman will be made the prohibitive favorite with #5 Raider Time. Folks, this is not a very good horse...zero for 14 this year with two sick scratches in her last six lines.  But look at who Arod has facing him in this race: Ken Koch, Thomas Swift, James Ducett, Marvin Raber, John G Wengerd, Keith Kash with horses that have a combined record of 1-68. Wait a minute, Ryan Stahl  has a drive in this race...with 1-17 Sassy Tempest who did win one this year (off a covered rail trip at 50-1). Rounding out this stellar field is Wyatt Irvine who draws the snowman with N L Solar Wind who hasn't won a race since November 2008, beating Slick-As-Sleet and Call Box in 2:01+ How are we expected to spend money on a race like this? Not really trying to be critical of Northfield...times are what they are. Just as the title of this piece says, I'm pouting and pining for times past.  |
|
|
|
Post by junior on May 28, 2010 3:50:40 GMT -5
Just finished handicapping Friday's card...fillies and mares, used to be one of my favorite nights of wagering. "Used to be" being the operative phrase. No F&M Open (again), and a general lack of interesting races. I point to race 7 as the most egregious example. Aaron Merriman will be made the prohibitive favorite with #5 Raider Time. Folks, this is not a very good horse...zero for 14 this year with two sick scratches in her last six lines. But look at who Arod has facing him in this race: Ken Koch, Thomas Swift, James Ducett, Marvin Raber, John G Wengerd, Keith Kash with horses that have a combined record of 1-68. Wait a minute, Ryan Stahl has a drive in this race...with 1-17 Sassy Tempest who did win one this year (off a covered rail trip at 50-1). Rounding out this stellar field is Wyatt Irvine who draws the snowman with N L Solar Wind who hasn't won a race since November 2008, beating Slick-As-Sleet and Call Box in 2:01+ How are we expected to spend money on a race like this? Not really trying to be critical of Northfield...times are what they are. Just as the title of this piece says, I'm pouting and pining for times past. this is why i bet Buffalo now on the weekends..until his recent slump Jack Flanigan has been money in the bank! and some of the pick 3's pay pretty decent despite the small pools..and FOUR daily doubles! |
|
|
|
Post by trackrat on May 28, 2010 8:08:18 GMT -5
This is why I have not been to Northfield in six weeks and when I do, I bet Yonkers, the Meadowlands.
|
|
|
|
Post by thegiss on May 28, 2010 9:48:54 GMT -5
This is why I hate being a public handicapper  I have bet less than a $1000 on Northfield this year. |
|
|
|
Post by trackrat on May 28, 2010 15:44:46 GMT -5
This is why I hate being a public handicapper I have bet less than a $1000 on Northfield this year. Giss, for the few shekels they pay you, you should just take all of Cliff's handicapping contest picks and bet them. I can't remember when he had a negative month. |
|
|
|
Post by jay44224 on May 28, 2010 15:50:28 GMT -5
Cliff, I used to go to Northfield almost every evening they raced. Now it is very limited and I hardly ever handicap a card there any more. Even when I bet simulcast now I find I drive to Mountaineer and spend my entertainment dollar there. Throw in a trip roughly every 4-5 weeks up to Buffalo where the horses are of a better quality and they both provide a better atmosphere and value to the patron. IMO
My top 3 tracks to wager in order are the Meadowlands, Yonkers, then Buffalo. 2 of those tracks would not have gotten a dime of my money 4 years ago
My trips to the Northfield facility usually only happen when I have a horse in to go that has a shot, or I go to pick up a purse check.
In the past when I went up to pick up a check I would handicap the card and if anything interested me I would cash my check, wager on the few races and head home check the results later. Now that they charge a fee to cash the check I just pick it up and do not bother to wager.
|
|
|
|
Post by cliff on May 28, 2010 16:43:25 GMT -5
Giss, for the few shekels they pay you, you should just take all of Cliff's handicapping contest picks and bet them. I can't remember when he had a negative month. I remember the negative months.  |
|
|
|
Post by cliff on May 28, 2010 16:58:21 GMT -5
I still follow, handicap, and wager Northfield, but I am VERY selective. I spend more time, effort, and money on the Meadowlands. I've tried to play Yonkers, but I don't yet "get" that track. I really only have time to follow a couple of tracks closely anyway.
Here in Nevada we are not allowed online betting accounts, so we are limited to what Nevada allows simulcast into the state. That leaves out Buffalo, the other Ohio tracks, and most small venues, plus the Canadian tracks. I don't wager the Pa tracks out of principle, their takeout is excessive. For some reason I can't get interested in the Chicago tracks. One other track I could get into is Dover, but they start too early to fit my schedule. I've watched some races at Cal Expo, but some of that stock would have trouble at Northfield plus the pools are small. So I just do the Big M and my "home" track.
|
|
|
|
Post by trackrat on May 28, 2010 17:06:19 GMT -5
Cliff, I also don't "get" Yonkers, but I've had success with Bartlett and Jimmy P. It's not entertaining to watch because it's boring racing. All the racing is done from the top of the stretch. Jimmy P knows this and it is a thing of beauty when he gets the lead and backs the field down while conserving his horse for the stretch run.
|
|
|
|
Post by jimhorseman on May 29, 2010 16:56:44 GMT -5
This topic has been a typical conversation for my Friday night harness group for well over a year now and in fact was the sole topic of conversation as a friend of mine and I drove home last night. Honestly, the only reason I/We still make Northfield our primary betting track is it is the only half mile track where the handle justifies the amount of money we wager. As long as there is still in the neighborhood of $1 million bet on a card I'll be there firing away on the Marvin Rabers, Lanny Merrimans & Beau Blevins. Yonkers handle is steadily increasing but the racing is boring and payoffs seem short. I still agree with the logic a horse owning friend of mine declares when discussing Yonkers. The purse money is so high that owners/trainers/drivers are happy to get a 2nd to 5th place check. Why pull when you are 3rd on the rail when it means coming first over on a favorite and maybe finishing out of the top five. Better to stay on the rail and perhaps pass a horse in the stretch and get 12 or 25 percent of that $30,000 purse. If stuck in the 7 or 8 post why punish the horse with minimal chance of success when a week later you could have an inside post with a fresh animal.
As for Buffalo, my hometown track. I do wager as it is live racing but do so reluctantly and selectively. Last night's 13 race card had a total handle of less than $150,000. Break that down to per race and then per type of wager (win/place/show/exacta/double/superfectas/pick 3's & 4's) and there is very little in each pool. An example last night. Kurt Sugg was at Buffalo and I thought a horse he drove; Enticing Attack in race 7, was a single in the pick four. Enticing Attack did win and I did cash a one dollar pick four bet for $358.50. My friend Jack also had the pick. It turns out we were virtually playing against each other. The pool had about $1300 bet into it and after takeout a little over a thousand to payout which means we took 2/3 of the pool. Very often the win pool totals less than a thousand dollars. A fifty dollar win wager may cut your odds in half. The same problem exists at local tracks we can bet (Vernon Downs, The Meadows, Saratoga). Our big pool harness tracks are limited to the Meadowlands & the Canadian mile tracks and I really dislike betting both. The Meadowlands seems to me to be a quarter horse race where at the top of the stretch they all fan out 6 or 7 across and have a sprint to the finish.
The good news for Northfield is that my friends and I will probably continue to keep it as our primary wagering track even if they take the last step down to senior citizens or farmers racing mules. Of course when I see names like McKirgan, Green, Kash Sr, Raber, Wyers on some of these trotters I'm not sure it isn't already Seniors on mules.
|
|
|
|
Post by thegiss on May 29, 2010 17:22:15 GMT -5
Cliff, I used to go to Northfield almost every evening they raced. Now it is very limited and I hardly ever handicap a card there any more. Even when I bet simulcast now I find I drive to Mountaineer and spend my entertainment dollar there. Throw in a trip roughly every 4-5 weeks up to Buffalo where the horses are of a better quality and they both provide a better atmosphere and value to the patron. IMO My top 3 tracks to wager in order are the Meadowlands, Yonkers, then Buffalo. 2 of those tracks would not have gotten a dime of my money 4 years ago My trips to the Northfield facility usually only happen when I have a horse in to go that has a shot, or I go to pick up a purse check. In the past when I went up to pick up a check I would handicap the card and if anything interested me I would cash my check, wager on the few races and head home check the results later. Now that they charge a fee to cash the check I just pick it up and do not bother to wager.Thank you. |
|
|
|
Post by junior on May 31, 2010 7:58:25 GMT -5
As for Buffalo, my hometown track. I do wager as it is live racing but do so reluctantly and selectively. Last night's 13 race card had a total handle of less than $150,000. Break that down to per race and then per type of wager (win/place/show/exacta/double/superfectas/pick 3's & 4's) and there is very little in each pool. An example last night. Kurt Sugg was at Buffalo and I thought a horse he drove; Enticing Attack in race 7, was a single in the pick four. Enticing Attack did win and I did cash a one dollar pick four bet for $358.50. My friend Jack also had the pick. It turns out we were virtually playing against each other. The pool had about $1300 bet into it and after takeout a little over a thousand to payout which means we took 2/3 of the pool. Very often the win pool totals less than a thousand dollars. A fifty dollar win wager may cut your odds in half. Memphis Glow with Kurt had a tough trip that night and is a horse to watch next time out |
|
|
|
Post by jimhorseman on May 31, 2010 14:09:55 GMT -5
Junior:
Speaking of a Sugg horse to keep your eye on at Buffalo add Sophisticated Katy to your list. Katy was the 5 horse in race 1. Sugg wanted to leave with the horse but the rail, 2 horse and 3 horse all left off the gate and they were three across the track looking like a roadblock going into the first turn. Sugg took back and was 5th on the rail. The moment Sugg pulled back the rail horse let the 2 go to the front and the 4 horse (driven by Jack Flanagan) allowed the 3 horse to drop in. Thus they were lined up 2-1-3-4-5 going to the quarter pole.
Sugg pulled Sophisticated Katy approaching the first quarter and Jack Flanagan yanked his horse out right in front of Sugg and then didn't take a step forward. The 6 horse was driven by Ray Fisher Jr and he pulled out behind Sugg. Suddenly as they approached the 3/8 pole Fisher goes three wide and stalls outside Sugg. Thus the front of the race is still lined up 2-1-3 on the rail with the 4 horse driven by Jack Flanagan about a half length behind the 3 on the outside, Sugg behind Flanagan and Fisher keeping Sugg locked in 4th on the outside by sitting 3 wide outside of him. They ran this way to the 3/4 pole. It looked as if Sugg was being intentionally locked in with Flanagan stalled in front of him and Fisher stalled outside of him despite soft fractions. Finally, the 3 horse who has 3rd on the rail began to fade a bit on the final turn and Sugg quickly dived into that spot with the intention of passing Flanagan's stalled horse on the inside and then angling out once by Flanagan's horse. Of course, suddenly Flanagan urges his horse forward and surprise his horse moved up a length now keeping Sugg locked in on the rail with no chance to pull. Flanagan's horse finally quit early in the stretch and Sugg was eventually able to angle out mid-stretch but by then the top two horses pulled away as they benefited from the soft middle half. Sugg ran 3rd but had a ton of horse and no where to run. My opinion is that the trip was an opening race "Welcome to Buffalo" from a couple veteran local drivers with a message that invaders who come in with a few live horses shouldn't plan on getting any breaks. If Sugg didn't get the message after race 1 I'm sure he got it after two of his later horses, Memphis Glow and Big Sapphire were all but run into causing each to break stride later in the card. Sophisticated Katy could be an interesting play next start depending on her post and who drives her.
|
|
|
|
Post by junior on Jun 1, 2010 5:05:17 GMT -5
Junior: Speaking of a Sugg horse to keep your eye on at Buffalo add Sophisticated Katy to your list. Katy was the 5 horse in race 1. Sugg wanted to leave with the horse but the rail, 2 horse and 3 horse all left off the gate and they were three across the track looking like a roadblock going into the first turn. Sugg took back and was 5th on the rail. The moment Sugg pulled back the rail horse let the 2 go to the front and the 4 horse (driven by Jack Flanagan) allowed the 3 horse to drop in. Thus they were lined up 2-1-3-4-5 going to the quarter pole. Sugg pulled Sophisticated Katy approaching the first quarter and Jack Flanagan yanked his horse out right in front of Sugg and then didn't take a step forward. The 6 horse was driven by Ray Fisher Jr and he pulled out behind Sugg. Suddenly as they approached the 3/8 pole Fisher goes three wide and stalls outside Sugg. Thus the front of the race is still lined up 2-1-3 on the rail with the 4 horse driven by Jack Flanagan about a half length behind the 3 on the outside, Sugg behind Flanagan and Fisher keeping Sugg locked in 4th on the outside by sitting 3 wide outside of him. They ran this way to the 3/4 pole. It looked as if Sugg was being intentionally locked in with Flanagan stalled in front of him and Fisher stalled outside of him despite soft fractions. Finally, the 3 horse who has 3rd on the rail began to fade a bit on the final turn and Sugg quickly dived into that spot with the intention of passing Flanagan's stalled horse on the inside and then angling out once by Flanagan's horse. Of course, suddenly Flanagan urges his horse forward and surprise his horse moved up a length now keeping Sugg locked in on the rail with no chance to pull. Flanagan's horse finally quit early in the stretch and Sugg was eventually able to angle out mid-stretch but by then the top two horses pulled away as they benefited from the soft middle half. Sugg ran 3rd but had a ton of horse and no where to run. My opinion is that the trip was an opening race "Welcome to Buffalo" from a couple veteran local drivers with a message that invaders who come in with a few live horses shouldn't plan on getting any breaks. If Sugg didn't get the message after race 1 I'm sure he got it after two of his later horses, Memphis Glow and Big Sapphire were all but run into causing each to break stride later in the card. Sophisticated Katy could be an interesting play next start depending on her post and who drives her. Jim,just watched the replay and your right,thanks for heads up! btw gotta love the replays and free programs available on the Buffalo site |
|
|
|
Post by jay44224 on Jun 1, 2010 7:30:13 GMT -5
Junior: Jim,just watched the replay and your right,thanks for heads up! btw gotta love the replays and free programs available on the Buffalo site Just another reason Buffalo gets more of my wagering dollars these days. |
|
But look at who Arod has facing him in this race: Ken Koch, Thomas Swift, James Ducett, Marvin Raber, John G Wengerd, Keith Kash with horses that have a combined record of 1-68.
has a drive in this race...with 1-17 Sassy Tempest who did win one this year (off a covered rail trip at 50-1). Rounding out this stellar field is Wyatt Irvine who draws the snowman with N L Solar Wind who hasn't won a race since November 2008, beating Slick-As-Sleet and Call Box in 2:01+
