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Post by letitrideman on Jul 25, 2010 1:22:15 GMT -5
Bare with me, I can be longwinded!
I'm somewhat new to horse betting having gone to NFD twice last year and a few times to both here and TDN the last 2 months. I have taken to capping the day or night before so that I can watch the boards a bit instead - at race time. Usually was face-down in the program most of the time at the track before.
So I remembered a tip that a pro (sports mostly) gambler once gave me. We were in the racebook at the Bellagio in Vegas and waiting on some other pros(we were in a sportsbetting group together and some of them were ultra sharp and had made money at card counting, poker, horses, etc as well ) and watching some races just for giggles. He said that sharp horse players will watch the Place and Show pools lookig for overlay conditions in which one of the better horses in the field has been overbet or underbet in a particular pool. So if there are 2 quality horses and one gets underbet in the Place pool you can get a better price than "normal/should" betting on it. Or if one is overbet the other is good value for a bet, conversely. Same thing in the Show pool if 3 quality horses and 1-2 of them are likewise over/under bet.
I noticed, in looking at results, that this happens here and there.
So I was at TDN a couple weeks back and liked a horse that was 3:5 to win and paid 3.40 ( d**n near all winners that day were chalky ). But near the start I noticed it was underbet in the Show pool so I plunked down a show bet and that ended up paying 5.00. I thought that was great that I got better payoff on show than win or place ( I think it was like 4.40 to place ).
But TONIGHT was an even bigger humdinger at NF! 6th race I like the 7, as does everyone, and was torn between the 6 and the 2 but leaning toward the 6 for an exacta combo. So someone bets huge on the 7 in the Show pool and I notice that 6, and d**n near everything else had very little action comparatively - the 3 had some but most was on the 7, huge!
So I had bet a little on 7 to win but now bet more on 6 to Show at the last minute, foregoing my exacta thoughts. But even then there was like $97 total on her only in the pool when the lights went off.
Well I was lamenting 7 pulling up and fading badly when I noticed that the race finished 2-6-4, I was reight on the finish line. Cool, I should still do okay with that Show Bet on 6. WOW, did I. 26.60, hot d**n! The board was "super funky" due to the overbet on 7!
2:12,6.4,15.8
6: ,8,26.6
4: , ,32.8
6 payed more than 3X as much for show as place. 2 paid more for show than win and 2.5X place.
So, since I'm kinda new. Is this real rare? Do a lot of folks look for and capitalize on such an opp? In typical "gambler's lament" fashion I was kicking myself for not unloading even HARDER on it afterwards!
Are such overlays very common? I know I read years ago about 2 guys winning some huge handicapping contest at TDN by "rigging" a couple of obscure, low handle, races with real bets that caused overlays on their "contest bets" and let them finish 1st and 2nd. It was being challanged by other contestants tho they did not break any stated rules on the contest. They had risked real $ to make their fake $ contest bets pay off unusually large and win them the contest. So obviously this angle has been around for a long time. Just curious what others know of it!
Good Luck! let it ride!
I should add, after patting myself on the back here, that I made one of the dumbest bets on the 13th. I bet #1 to win. Someone/ones had unloaded on it in all 3 pools by the racetime and it ended up paying 2.1 ATB. So for my little 5% return I could have had 3 chances at it by betting S instead of W. DUMB! I escaped the "gotcha" when it won by like 20-some lengths - another oddity from my limited experiences.
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Post by trackrat on Jul 25, 2010 6:06:17 GMT -5
I remember the handicapping contest scenario you recall, but I thought it was at Northfield's World Series of Handicapping, or whatever they called it.
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Post by letitrideman on Jul 25, 2010 14:02:44 GMT -5
I remember the handicapping contest scenario you recall, but I thought it was at Northfield's World Series of Handicapping, or whatever they called it. You could be right trackrat, my memory of it is hazy as it was like 20-25 years ago. I thought it was TDN but maybe not. I do recall it was a lot of $. I think 1st prize was 100K and 2nd either 50K or 30K. Plenty enuff to make losing 5-7K on creating the overlays worthwhile. My uncle used to go to TDN a lot and he talked about guys who'd bet 10K to show on the favorite ( to earne a quick 5%-10% interest ). But then something like what happened can ruin that if the horse pulls up or breaks in harness racing. He'd also talk about "feed races" near the end of the season where longshots would win ( he claimed it was fixed to get them $ to last the winter ). I was a kid so I had no idea what he was talking about really. |
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Post by trackrat on Jul 25, 2010 14:35:58 GMT -5
He'd also talk about "feed races" near the end of the season where longshots would win ( he claimed it was fixed to get them $ to last the winter ). I was a kid so I had no idea what he was talking about really. I used to hear that myth about non-winners who would win at the end of the season, supposedly so they could pay their feed bills. Now, they are all non-winners (lol), so that angle went out the window! |
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Post by letitrideman on Jul 26, 2010 12:31:47 GMT -5
Probably just supersticious nonsense trackrat, but he used to swear by it. Maybe there was some validity to it many years ago at some point. Maybe when they didn't race all year or something like that. Probably just an urban legend tho! LOL
A friend of mine once did a documentary film where he interviewed a number of gamblers from all walks of life. One was a former harness trainer/driver. It was interesting hearing his take on the industry.
He said it was almost like a scam, as a trainer and sometimes driver, that you had to keep convincing the owners that their horses had potential and would eventually win $ and make the investment worthwhile - even when you knew that wasn't likely - to keep them paying you to train and upkeep the horses(feed, medicate, barn, etc.). Then the long hours to train and keep the horses from dawn to dusk thru sickness at times, and then race them at night. Plus the mistreatment some other trainers would use to try to win. He said he got tired of it all, the constant deceiving of the owners, barely scraping by while working 18+ hour days, and that he truly cared for his animals and wouldn't stoop to abusing them like some others ( I assume he meant doping and other unsavory practices - he didn't go into details ) so he finally quit and opened up a small shipping company that became very lucrative for him. But he maintained his love for horses. Just had a lot of disdain for the industry as a whole and how it was run and how too many of the horses and workers in the industry were treated. I'll have to dig it out and watch it again sometime. I think he raced out of a NY track somewhere, I know he moved to NM to start his business.
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Post by thegiss on Jul 28, 2010 10:35:56 GMT -5
I remember the handicapping contest scenario you recall, but I thought it was at Northfield's World Series of Handicapping, or whatever they called it. Correct. Funny story- it was well before my employment here and we (my buddies and I) were not in the WSOH. But, we had read the rules closely (this was before the days of large simul pools) and envisioned exactly this scenario happening. It was so obvious that it was amazing that the organizers did not realize the possibilities. We made a huge score (for us at that time) --several hundred bucks. |
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Post by letitrideman on Jul 28, 2010 13:31:14 GMT -5
I remember the handicapping contest scenario you recall, but I thought it was at Northfield's World Series of Handicapping, or whatever they called it. Correct. Funny story- it was well before my employment here and we (my buddies and I) were not in the WSOH. But, we had read the rules closely (this was before the days of large simul pools) and envisioned exactly this scenario happening. It was so obvious that it was amazing that the organizers did not realize the possibilities. We made a huge score (for us at that time) --several hundred bucks. You lost me somewhere Keith. You said you guys were not in the WSOH but made a "relatively" huge score(several hundred). Do you mean that you took advantage of the races they "overbet/rigged" for the contest by betting real money on them yourselves? So was it obvious which races they did it in? Just curious! I imagine most of the opps for such situations now are caused by these guys who throw 10K at a Show Pool to try to make a quick 5% ROI on it. I wonder how many times it backfires on them ( what happened in the 6th on Sat as the fav #7 faded down the stretch and finished 5th ). Still kicking myself for not unloading more on #6 and also banging #2 both in that race! |
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Post by thegiss on Jul 28, 2010 15:40:07 GMT -5
Correct. Funny story- it was well before my employment here and we (my buddies and I) were not in the WSOH. But, we had read the rules closely (this was before the days of large simul pools) and envisioned exactly this scenario happening. It was so obvious that it was amazing that the organizers did not realize the possibilities. We made a huge score (for us at that time) --several hundred bucks. You lost me somewhere Keith. You said you guys were not in the WSOH but made a "relatively" huge score(several hundred). Do you mean that you took advantage of the races they "overbet/rigged" for the contest by betting real money on them yourselves? So was it obvious which races they did it in? Just curious! I imagine most of the opps for such situations now are caused by these guys who throw 10K at a Show Pool to try to make a quick 5% ROI on it. I wonder how many times it backfires on them ( what happened in the 6th on Sat as the fav #7 faded down the stretch and finished 5th ). Still kicking myself for not unloading more on #6 and also banging #2 both in that race! It was exceptionally obvious and very easy to do. And they did it stupidly. In one race, the board opened with $500 to win on every horse but one. In another, they did something similar in the show pool. Have to say, I often see these very risky bridge jumps and will bet $1 show on the rest of the field. The exposure is minimal- In a 9-horse field, it costs you $8, but you get a minimum of $2.10 back, so $5.90. And with net pool pricing, it often comes back better even if the fave scores. But the upside is huge. |
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Post by letitrideman on Jul 28, 2010 17:43:18 GMT -5
Thanks Keith that explains it. I'd guess when you "live at the track" such things stand out and are known!  You also answered my other question about how often these opps present themselves. It sounds like the "bridge jumps", as you call them, are not that rare. Seems awfully DAFT to me, particularly in harness racing where breaks can throw any race into "silly" result mode. Your technique would have netted $31.60 on that race Sat with $6 in show bets on all but #7 in a 7-horse race. Even if #7 had won, your technique would have netted $15.20 in profit. But then look at what escalating it to $10 or $100 instead of $1 would do.   ;D  You lost me somewhere Keith. You said you guys were not in the WSOH but made a "relatively" huge score(several hundred). Do you mean that you took advantage of the races they "overbet/rigged" for the contest by betting real money on them yourselves? So was it obvious which races they did it in? Just curious! I imagine most of the opps for such situations now are caused by these guys who throw 10K at a Show Pool to try to make a quick 5% ROI on it. I wonder how many times it backfires on them ( what happened in the 6th on Sat as the fav #7 faded down the stretch and finished 5th ). Still kicking myself for not unloading more on #6 and also banging #2 both in that race! It was exceptionally obvious and very easy to do. And they did it stupidly. In one race, the board opened with $500 to win on every horse but one. In another, they did something similar in the show pool. Have to say, I often see these very risky bridge jumps and will bet $1 show on the rest of the field. The exposure is minimal- In a 9-horse field, it costs you $8, but you get a minimum of $2.10 back, so $5.90. And with net pool pricing, it often comes back better even if the fave scores. But the upside is huge. |
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Post by trackrat on Jul 28, 2010 20:33:06 GMT -5
Letitrideman, once upon a time, I could feel comfortable betting the entire Northfield card and feel confident that I would come away with at least a $200 profit on the night. Since the dilution of good racing stock at Northfield and a fragmented driving colony, I'm reduced to the status of taking what I can get in selected, specific races where I can pair two obvious contenders and pound the combination in exactas or trifectas.
Nowadays, it seems like there is always a prohibitive favorite at 2-5 or 1-9 (or whatever) and I can never justify betting WPS on that chalk. But you can find value keying that chalk on the front end or your exactas and trifectas.
Having said all that, I'm keeping my cash in my pocket until I see video slot machines at Northfield, hopefully later this year... and subsequently, better racing stock.
Keep posting your questions. We have an excellent corps of proven handicappers and you are welcome to join our monthly handicapping contest, which will resume on August 2.
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Post by letitrideman on Aug 9, 2010 19:55:05 GMT -5
I hadn't thought through the nuances of the "bridge jump" attempts until another happened Friday night while I was there.
So I kind-of hadn't realized what normally happens. 10th race, I noticed with a few minutes left that someone had dumped(bridge jumped) $10K in the show pool on 3, and my pick 7 ( as the pretty-much 2nd fav ) was relatively under-bet as more money was on the 9, 5 and 4 at the time in that pool.
I ran up and bet twice my BIG BET on the #7 to show. Thinking this was a "prime" overlay scenario.
Then at post someone ( or maybe the same guy ) bets ANOTHER $10K to show on 3.
But after the race finished, I realized that the minimum they pay out is $2.10 ( now that I think about it that should be 2.05 or even 2.01 in these scenarios - considering ). So say there is 20K on the fav and 2K altogether on the others in the pool ( I think it was actually like 23K and 3K or so - I didn't jot it down ) but lets say 22K total to make it easier to "see". So they have to give the guy back his 20K if he cashes and 1K profit for the 2.10 price. But that leaves just 1K left to pay ( divide among ) the other two winners in the pool. AND normally the track takes their cut - but they can't really in this case BECAUSE of the minimum payout of $2.10 and the largely unbalanced pool.
So Keith's "bet $1 on all-but-fav to show" is not that good of a strategy after-all and this only PAYS OFF BIG when the dumpee favorite actually finishes out of the $. His method would have netted 1.5 and 2.1 back ( $3.60 ) on $8 bet on the race Friday night.
Now, IF the 3 ( who finished 2nd ) had finished 4th instead, then this would have paid off BIGTIME for me and my show on 7. The track could take their cut and then the 3 winners would divide what's left of the guys 20K up and those $16-$40 paying show bets would have happened. Instead, with 3 finishing in-the-$, I only got $3 on the #7 show bet winner.
So, in these "large dump" situations you definitely need to hope the fav doesn't hit the board and still use capping to pick a horse to bet show on that WILL. I imagine the "Track" also hopes for that ( fav not cashing ) as they otherwise don't get their % of the dumpee's $ either. Worth the TRY tho if you like a horse - that isn't the fav that was "bridge jumped" on - pretty well. But not nearly the strength I thought it was upon looking more closely at it all.
I obviously am still on a big learning curve. LOL
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Post by the believer on Aug 20, 2010 0:06:05 GMT -5
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Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Picking winners vs. making money ...
I've finished reading A Breed Apart by Mike Helm and wouldn't hesitate to recommend it not only to thoroughbred handicappers but to standardbred handicappers as well.
U.S. Trotting Association handicapper Steve Carpenito (http://handicapping.ustrotting.com/carpe_nito_diem.cfm) stopped by the Amateur Handicapper site yesterday (via the magic of the Internets) to discuss what turned out to be a not-so-good question from yours truly about the strategy of putting down large sums of money for horses to show. Turns out, Steve has only made two or three show bets in the last 30 years! But he gave us insights nevertheless into how he'd approach the strategy if he were to transfer it from thoroughbreds to standardbreds. Interesting stuff.
In any case, Steve would have been much more at home in Helm's discussion with the legendary West Coast thoroughbred handicapper, Ron Cox. Cox is a dedicated system player who was on the cutting edge of the information explosion that changed handicapping forever in the 1980s and 1990s.
The discussion between Helm and Cox began when the handicapper told the author about colleagues who told him, " 'My handicapping is super, but my money management is bad.' Well, that's because they're picking winners instead of figuring out how to make money at it."
Cox continued, "I spent a lot of years playing Pick Sixes and thinking it was a horrible bet for the usual reason that you have to cover too many contenders. Well, when I finally started hitting -- and in the last two years I've had the only ticket for $206,000, $85,000 and $137,000 -- the way I did it was by singling price horses. Like the general public, I used to be afraid to single a price horse. But I realized that if you single a long shot, now you can spread out in other races and play a reasonable Pick 6 ticket.
"Even the professionals give the public bad advice on this. At the Mirage Conference a speaker talked about dutching two horses when you couldn't make up your mind. He said, 'If you have four-to-one and six-to-one you bet them both, only with more money on the four-to-one.' Well, I've learned that you should bet just the opposite. If you like them both the same, why would you bet more on the shorter-priced horse? If you're saying to yourself that you can't separate them, then you should bet more on the one that's paying the most."
More useful tips from Ron Cox in an upcoming post.
Good luck at the windows!
(I haven't given it out recently, but I always welcome comments at bill.eichenberger@gmail.com)
Posted by The Book Serf at 11:06 AM
Newer Post Older Post Home About The Amateur Handicapper...
In 1978, Bill Eichenberger bought a lime green Plymouth Duster and drove it off the lot in Youngstown, Ohio straight to Northfield Park outside of Cleveland. He was entranced by the vivid colors, the thunder of hooves on the track, the thrill of having a ticket in hand as they came down the homestretch. He no longer drives a Plymouth but remains in love with standarbred horses and harness racing. For 25 years, he worked as a reporter for The Columbus Dispatch newspaper in Ohio. Never shy about laying down a wager, Eichenberger has been an avid amateur handicapper for more than 30 years.
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Post by cliff on Aug 22, 2010 12:10:02 GMT -5
The discussion between Helm and Cox began when the handicapper told the author about colleagues who told him, " 'My handicapping is super, but my money management is bad.' Well, that's because they're picking winners instead of figuring out how to make money at it."
Cox continued, "I spent a lot of years playing Pick Sixes and thinking it was a horrible bet for the usual reason that you have to cover too many contenders. Well, when I finally started hitting -- and in the last two years I've had the only ticket for $206,000, $85,000 and $137,000 -- the way I did it was by singling price horses. Like the general public, I used to be afraid to single a price horse. But I realized that if you single a long shot, now you can spread out in other races and play a reasonable Pick 6 ticket. I use a similar strategy, although the pick 6's are a little rich for my blood. Here is an example of a pick 4 play, that I wrote down, but didn't make. I couldn't play Northfield Saturday night as I had another engagement. I did look over the program, however, and one horse jumped out at me, #5 Penn Turbo Ted in the 9th. He was moving up off a couple fine efforts, the last he was first out in a very fast paced race. I didn't like Charlino's horse, or Tony Hall's, both could be expected to take money. Thought the price would be decent on Ted. The pick 4 had a trot race in the first and fourth legs, sandwiching Ted's race and the 10th which had only two likely winners, Lolas Cruiser and Polo Joe. I was prepared to go five deep in the trots, so my proposed ticket looked like this: 23578/5/15/13459 for $1, so it ended up a $50 play. I thought about placing the wager before I went out for the evening, but when I saw what the weather was like, I dropped the idea. It came 8553 and paid nearly $300 for a buck, so it would have been a nice little profit. Both trot races had the chalk winning, which is not typical, or it could have been more. |
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