Post by letitrideman on Jul 27, 2010 15:32:03 GMT -5
Being relatively new to horse betting I have been making "learning curve" mistakes since I am not used to paramutual betting.
Mainly that I make most of my bets relatively early only to watch the morning line 10-1 dog I liked fall to 2:5 with thousands on it within the last couple minutes of betting. And tho someone(s) with a big bankroll must have liked the same things I did, its not like those nags win 75% of the time to make it worthwhile!
Seems even worse in thoroughbred racing. I can understand pros waiting to make sure their big $ isn't wasted on a horse that breaks before the start, but why is it that 80% of the pools go down in the last couple minutes(and what I think is a decent price gets TRAMPLED)?
I also find it "poor value" to bet $50 to win $2.5 or $5 on some 1:9 overbet fav, not anywhere worth the risk. Is there a "cutoff price/odds" you use for which you never bet a fav under it? Maybe you never bet WIN on anything below 2-1, or only use exotics and keys below a certain mark?
In sportsbetting I'm used to evaluating +EV situations and knowing when a bet has value, whether a 20-1 longshot or a 1:5 fav. But in horses I am struggling with it a bit. Seems counter-intuitive to me that I'm seeing it's better to bet bigger on longshots and avoid favs altogether when I'm used to the opposite a bit(betting much more on short-priced favs with value and less on puppies with value due to the relative hit rate ).
It's probably a function of my tendency to want to "play each race I cap" since I have been doing it so briefly and infrequently. Still forcing it a bit compared to betting such a low % of "the board" in sports - only games/props with value.
I'm also thinking its best to bet the exotics(exactas and tris) early and wait for the straight bets until the end so the odds (last minute dumps and arbitrageurs) are less likely to mess you up.
Such a fish/mark I am at this! LOL
Mainly that I make most of my bets relatively early only to watch the morning line 10-1 dog I liked fall to 2:5 with thousands on it within the last couple minutes of betting. And tho someone(s) with a big bankroll must have liked the same things I did, its not like those nags win 75% of the time to make it worthwhile!
Seems even worse in thoroughbred racing. I can understand pros waiting to make sure their big $ isn't wasted on a horse that breaks before the start, but why is it that 80% of the pools go down in the last couple minutes(and what I think is a decent price gets TRAMPLED)?
I also find it "poor value" to bet $50 to win $2.5 or $5 on some 1:9 overbet fav, not anywhere worth the risk. Is there a "cutoff price/odds" you use for which you never bet a fav under it? Maybe you never bet WIN on anything below 2-1, or only use exotics and keys below a certain mark?
In sportsbetting I'm used to evaluating +EV situations and knowing when a bet has value, whether a 20-1 longshot or a 1:5 fav. But in horses I am struggling with it a bit. Seems counter-intuitive to me that I'm seeing it's better to bet bigger on longshots and avoid favs altogether when I'm used to the opposite a bit(betting much more on short-priced favs with value and less on puppies with value due to the relative hit rate ).
It's probably a function of my tendency to want to "play each race I cap" since I have been doing it so briefly and infrequently. Still forcing it a bit compared to betting such a low % of "the board" in sports - only games/props with value.
I'm also thinking its best to bet the exotics(exactas and tris) early and wait for the straight bets until the end so the odds (last minute dumps and arbitrageurs) are less likely to mess you up.
Such a fish/mark I am at this! LOL