Friday 8/13 "amateur" picks

[letitrideman]

Going to my second straight Friday night at NFD and thought I'd post my picks/capping for giggles(don't laugh too hard). I admire anyone ballsy enuff to post picks publicly! While I notice most list their best 4, I will only list those I like. Some races that is 1 horse, others 2, 3 or 4. Some I will pass on. To me, the analysis and thought-process are as important as the picks, so I'll brain dump some here.

First, as usual I find it a tuff night. In one sense without Deaton you only have one first class driver which could make it easy ( just bet Charlino each race - LOL) but then where would be the fun in that. I haven't looked, but I'll bet The Giss is all over his horses on this card since he is picking up some of Deaton's usuals, other first timers as well ( seems to be a big angle with Keith ) and some of his usual favs ( why he keeps going on FFran I can't fathom tho - despite their long win streak months back - but I get ahead of it some ).

RACE 1: 6-9-5
Like Giss' (1st time Charlino) angle on this one and #6 Jackie's Gem's dropping a fair amount in class here to boot. Plus she did very well with fellow-driving-ace Aaron Merriman aboard here in April. My guess is that this is going to be one of those 2-5 or 1-5 favs I detest - unbettable - IMO. #9 Allamerican Dora has mostly been racing at 2K and up level here and has two sub-2min miles in her last 3 which is noteworthy and bests all but the #6 in this bunch. Not a strong 2nd pick tho since she is 0-fer 2010 so far. #5 Lady Louis is also a class dropper who was hitting the board at this level in May and is VERY consistently on/around the 2 min mark which again stands out in this field. Unimpressed with any others so likely to go 6 with 5&9 tri shot only here - particularly if 6 is a 2-5 or less fav as I expect.

RACE 2: 2-3-7
#2 Excellent Caviar had a nice run of hitting the board a little while back. Posts may have hurt some of late. Consistent speed and better post may bring her in here. Not a confident pick tho, but her 6 Ws in 2010 is clearly the best in this field. #3 Sienna Belle has mostly raced at a higher purse level elsewhere and is coming off two solid showings here in 3 tries. May be ready to break through. #7 ConwayMaid has the 1st Charlino angle but doesn't have the speed to challenge from the 7 spot, IMO. She's won her last two races at 2K level but cannot seem to hit the board at this 2400 mark. Maybe Charlino can at least get her in 3rd here. #8 seems to need a better post to contend. She's very boom-or-bust tho and coming off a scratch-sick last week is not viable for me.

RACE3: 2 or 8 (post-time decision)
UrsulaK(#2) has some speed but has mostly wasted good post positions of late and fears the board it seems, LOL. YouAreTheOnlyOne(#8) has the speed and gets awful posts - like this one - but may overcome here with 1st-time-Charlino angle and some closing speed to respect. This decision may come down to how hot Charlino is off of the first two races - I do watch that pretty closely when they are this closely matched up. FriendlyKathy(#7) looks a lot better than a 20-1 dog to me and merits a look at the Show Pool for me if she is dissed that much at racetime. Not sure I can put her in exotics tho so I'll probably stick to exacta - straight or box - this race only.

RACE4: PASS
One of those races where horses 1-8 could all contend. If I had to bet my life, I'd pick 5 or 2. But neither are coming off stellar performances and they all look about the same overall to me! Just not worth the risk when it is a dart board race to me.

RACE5: 4-1-3
For all the races there are lots of dogchit horses at this 2K level, here you have several real stars grouped together ( wonder why they'd do that!! ). Hard to go against #4 SilversLuck as she's bested most of this bunch ( even the good ones ) over and over. PLUS, she's moving slightly down in class?? Seems like a case where the owner BADLY wants to keep cashing those win checks! Picks up a new driver but seems to win no matter WHO is driving her. Her 13 W's and closing ability are just too good to pass up. Normally I'd be ALL OVER #1 StoxUpBluegrass, as she too is dropping some and has fantastic times to boot. Would seem she'd be dropping to keep from being bridesmaid to #4 but they are again paired. She's finished 2nd to her in 4/5 last races and behind her in another 3-4 to boot in the last 10. These two should get lesbo-married I think - Silver'sLuck gets the tux. #3 Whoville would normally be a good play coming off two Ws at this level after a class-drop as well but looks mediocre compared to the couple ahead. Charlino and #7 FantasticFran had their run early in the year but have been futile of late and the 7 spot doesn't help, nor the hot speed demons ahead.

RACE6: 3
Probably going to end up a PASS for me as I envision #3 RadiantStar, a class-dropper with good speed and some good performances with Charlino months back ( he's returning to drive her again here ) will be bet down to 1-5 on me here. The rest don't stand out from each other at all for me. How much does a 3-all-all-all 10c super cost again? LOL

RACE7: 7-5-3
Somewhat of a value pick on #7 CnLouflyLoretta due to m/l 10-1 and Charlino being pretty good at the mid-price dog level. He drove her to a 1st and 2nd back 9&10 here but hasn't driven her since. Is 2/5 Ws on her lifetime and she is coming off 3 tries with her trainer driving - not likely optimum conditions for her. Bad post at #7 but this is not a real tough field either. #5 SweetieSueCam has hit the board 2/3 but was helped by Deaton probably. Had dropped markedly in class 4 back from 3800 level to this 2400 where she's started to cash. Seems a good chance to place despite the driver downgrade. #3 also was a Deaton horse but gets a worse downgrade in driver and has not fared well at this 2400 level despite solid times. I'd love it if #8 had Charlino back on her as this its a sentimental fav for me, but nope!

RACE 8: 3-6
Liked MsDenali last Friday night in "this race" and still do. She had a 3-race hiatus from the board several back but I mostly excuse that away for two reasons. One is that she was moved up in class to the 2400/4Kclaimer level for two of them. Two is that she was raced on short rest in BOTH as well. Kind of tuff to throw both of those at her at once YET she still ran decent races finishing 4th and putting up decent times at a higher claiming and purse level. Now back to her "comfort zone" of 2000 purses/3Kclaimers she's rattled off 4 wins in her last 7 tries at this level with Koch in the sulky ( learning the lingo! ). Even though PeggySpur has Charlino(THE MAN) behind her, she's won only 2/10 at this level since her break-in-action early in the year and seems more likely to hit 2nds ( 4 of last 9 ) than to be on top. Not to mention the post of 3 over 6 makes MsD more attractive. KrissyK might get the 3rd nod for me on the strength of her 3rd in this race last week and great post(1). But somewhat class-droppers 8 and 4 ( with my favorite 2nd tier drivers Wyatt and Robin ) both had good races 2-back and one of them may well nip her out so that one is a toss-up for me. Both 8 and 4 probably deserve a little more respect from the opening line guy too! LOL

the last 5 coming soon....

[jimhorseman]

Letitrideman:

Love the time and effort you are putting into your handicapping. Good analysis as well. The Friday night card does indeed look chalky and Charlino has enough live drives where he could conceivably challenge the ten win plateau. Some thoughts:

Race 1:

Hate to single a cheap horse that is 3 for 35 lifetime but may have to with the 6 horse Jackies Gem. A tri key of 6 with the 1359 seems an almost can't miss wager.

Race 2:

Don't like Siena Belle with Frank Harris driving. It is a Ben Miller trained horse and those are usually driven by Kurt Sugg. Since Sugg chose the rail horse; Fiesty Kindof Luv, I would think he is a play. Doesn't seem to be much speed so if Excellent Caviar can loop the rail she will be tough. Small play on the 1 and 2 with the 7 and 8 to help the tri price.

Race 3:

Which Ursula K are we going to get? The one who went wire to wire in 1:57 on July 9th or the one who gapped badly off the gate last week? 8 horses are tough bets on half mile tracks but Charlino may be able to get Youaretheonlyone home. As longshots throw in the 5 Happy Occasion who may get an easy lead if Ursula K does not fire. I too think Friendly Fire can hit the ticket.

Race 4:

The usual wide open superfecta race. Tye Loy took Native Flower around the track last week perhaps keeping her flat. I'll come back on her this week with Robin Miller driving. Charlino and Dream Misty should be tough. Scooters Clan may come in at a big price to help exotic tickets.

Race 5:

On paper looks like 1 and 4 all day. I'll be watching the 2 horse I Am Samsational. Terrible ride last week by Deaton. He was a couple lengths off a wicked speed duel and instead of pulling around the tiring horses approaching the 3/4 pole elected to stay on the rail and was trapped behind the gasping Ferris Wheel. Did Deaton know the horse didn't have it and try to save ground or will I Am Samsational run better than the line last week indicates?

Race 6:

I have been using Radiant Star on my tri tickets the last couple of weeks with Dale Edwards from outside posts. This week he drops in class, draws inside and oh yeah, picks up Charlino. If I could lock in the 7/2 m/l odds I might mortgage the house. Problem is it looks like a cold
4-1 exacta. Maybe wheel and hope a bomb comes in third in the tri?

Race 7:

Could be a big price race. I like Back Home Again with the Miller/Hollar combo off the rail along with Sweetie Sue Cam who tried to come forward in a last half that went 57.1 last week. Much softer field. Jan Jet is 5/2 morning line but if Charlino couldn't win with her in lower company don't see how Eidens does it this week up in class.

Race 8:

Trying for the upset with Chips Uptown Girl. I like the Rosy Weaver/Robin Miller combo on trotters. Chips is down in class. I saw her first two races at Northfield and she was blind switched in her first start and closed nicely to be third from way back in her second start. Admittedly the last start looks ugly but not seeing that race hoping the horse was just buried on the rail. Look out for Oceana Hanover who always seems to run best with McKirgan driving. Naturally Ms Denali and Peggy Spur will be favored and probably rightly so but hey, have to try to find price horses somewhere.

Race 9:

ICU Roller looks like a single off the rail. Surf Song; if ready off the layoff, is the other horse who can compete.

Race 10:

Envy wins by 10 lengths, takes 3 weeks off and stays in the same class. Either she crushes the field again or those will be signs eveyone points to after the race if she loses at her probable 1/5 odds. Doowrah Silver is my pick of the others to perhaps upset Envy.

Race 11:

Shelbys Muneymaker was passed rather easily last week; though by a true feature animal in Shell I Attack. Is Shelby on a decline after the scratch sick or just run into a couple of monsters the last couple starts. Misster Wilker off the rail is interesting as I'm sure the connections were disappointed by the break in the big race and perhaps looking for atonement.

Race 12:

I always try to beat Wyatt on a heavy favorite which I hope Quite a Shark will be. I'll try Blue Time Ice Lady who ran tough hung last week and Fun Lady who was first over against a 1/9 horse last week and stays in the lower class again against a much softer field.

Race 13:

Yawn! I'll probably be gone by then. Looks like the 3-2 exacta should pay $6 and the 3-2-1 trifecta not much more than that. Don't see much value in the race.

Good Luck to All Friday night and keep thanks for "letting me ride" on your post.

[letitrideman]

alrighty then, the rest of my amateur guesses/drivel. LOL

RACE 9: 1-6
IcuRoller(#1) won 3 straight at this level before a class jump and sick/scr derailed her a bit. Posted a solid time in return that could mean she's ready to rumble again. BBBigGirl(#6) is so sonsistent at this level compared to the rest who mostly are moving up or coming off some disappointing races. Her worst time is right there with some of the others best like #9 and #2. #8 is racing for 3rd time in a week and that usually means 4th. LOL #4 off long layoff may be dangerous but I can't back her personally.

RACE 10: 4-3-6-7
Gotta be Envy-ous of 6/7 Ws by #4 and Charlino passing 3 others up for her for good reason. Like #3 DoowrahSilver next coming off lifetime mark and nice post pos. #6 Medoland Kendall coming off monster time but losing Dan C. likely affects. #7 also missing Dan C. Another overloaded with talent race here!

RACE11: 5-1-8-4
Was worried about ShelbysMuneymaker(#5) last out and took Deaton's ride over her. But her 3rd back after sick/scr should mark her return to the winners circle here. #1 MissterWilker is a 3yo coming off some of those 15K stakes races it posted some solid times in. May be a little overmatched here tho and hasn't cashed in 5. DropOfNutmeg(#8) probably underrated at 12-1 as she's battled #5 in the past. #4 is coming off a couple duds or she'd be a live one too. #3 is coming off lifetime best monster with Charlino on her but upping in class and her trainer/driver has a pretty poor record on her in the past.

RACE12: 1-6-3
#1 QuiteAShark has steadily improved her times since coming back from sick/scr a month ago and appears primed to bite out of the 1 hole. Like Wyatt here AND drop from 2400 level to 2K here. #6 FunLady also had been racing at 2800 until last and is likely to be competitive here. #3 seems best of rest barely. Most of the better drivers are on slow horses here. Or #2 off sick/scr has its trainer up who's record is poor. #4 changes drivers every race it seems. Lots of strange forms here.

RACE13: 3-2-1-7
BlueridgeMagdalen is miss consistency off of two Ws at this level have to ride her here. Barely like her over #2 ScreaminBeliever who is 1/1 with Dan C on her. Not the fastest horse tho. #1 SoaringCloud has been improving over last 3 with underrated Miller on board. Like the 3 soft post spots here. #7 UptownGal is uptown and downtown from race to race. At that pattern she could surprise. I don't see anything else breaking the 2 min mark consistently so I may box Tri and Super on these 4 here.

Good Luck To All ( I need it with this card )!!!

[letitrideman]

Composing while u posted Jim. Thx and I'll certainly look over your picks and experience. The more time I can cap the better I tend to do.

GL!

[letitrideman]

Now the "bloody" recap. I actually felt kindof good to have escaped most of the puppies barking early as so many races were passolas for me. And I rescued the early going with a decent score on an overlayed show pool in the 5th. Love those! But then the short prices late also limited my opps when things did turn around a bit.

Race1: As expected #6 was at 2-5 late and I just played the two tri shots. Good thing as she barely hit the board. Not a consolation when my 2nd pick won at 6-1 for a 14.60 payoff. 6 ended up 1-2 but it must have moved at the bell as I only saw 2-5.

Race2: A complete whiff. I was happy with the odds on my picks but it did me no good.

Race3: With Charlino starting slowly I went with #2 Ursala K, no help tho as neither hit the board. No show opps here.

Race4: Glad I passed as was as crazy as I expected. I simply rooted for #9 to finish last since it was the only one I couldn't justify - and it did so I felt a "moral victory" here anyway. LOL

Race5: YES! #4 being 1-5 here saved my bacon. I did back her in some small exotics but scored nicely by watching someone dump 5K in the show pool on her and bet a nice piece on #1 to show at the gate. While I later wished it had been the 20K dump from last week I still smiled as it paid 10.80. I LOVE bridge jumps!!!! Did not at all mind #4's early break killing my little exotics. Hope Jim got some of that 41.80 show action on his #2!

Race6: As expected, passed on the 1-5 #3 RadiantStar. Was still psyched over 5th so sitting out was cool by me.

Race7: So the 10-1 o/l #7 with Charlino in the bike ended up the fav during most of the betting before ending 1.8-1 to 5's 1.7. But she never did squat and this one was another blank for me. Congrats to Jim on this one as he nailed the 12.40 paying Robin/Hollar combo longshot as well as the 41.40 exacta - and maybe more! Very well done!!!

Race8: FINALLY, a race that went as planned. LOL I could pregnant dog about the even money odds and 11.20 exacta but after that first stretch I was happy to see something look "right" and a dog didn't bite me here!

Race9: See race1. LOL But this time #1 was a play at 4-5 ( heck that seemed like long odds compared to many favs ). But after leading for the 1st 3/4 she died down the stretch - bad! And like race1 my 2nd pick paid a nice 14.60 all for naught for me!!! They should pay for the "thought", no?

Race10: 1-9 on "mortal lock" envy had me in exotics land here only. But I couldn't leave the 3 out of any and didn't box my 4-horses so it was an 0-fer despite being "close again". LOL Like slot machines I swear we all get "close" so often just to keep teasing us back. But I don't play slots!

Race11: Shelbys did come thru and tho it was at my break-point of 1-2 I did back her some. Whiffed on all of my exotics tho.

Race12: Sweated this one out as I thought 30-1 longshot 9 had nipped Shark-y at the wire. So I'll gladly take that 3-5 payout and not complain about the 8-5 I was calculating in my head when she looked good for most of the race. Whew!

Race13: Ended on a positive note with a "comparatively big" 3.80 payout on #3 and I did 3 w/1&2 tri so I caught some of the 35.60 little payout.

A tuff night as I expected. Winners short priced and didn't back any of the puppies that did hit. Such is life! I think Keith struggled some too as tho he only took Dan. C 5 times it was such a haphazard dog-filled night. Hey, but the buffet was tasty! Some of those Children's Hospital folks need a clue tho. Had to run to another machine on one race as one guy was betting 2 races ahead at the gate and had no clue. Strange how people do that at gate! Probably won't be back for a couple weeks - GLTA! Will be taking my g/f to Thistle next Sat afternoon instead.

[jimhorseman]

Thanks for the recap Letitridman. I know all that typing takes some time and effort. Glad to see you are enjoying harness racing and hope you are indeed back in a couple of weeks. Despite some big whiffs and near misses (had Native Flower big in race 4 who just missed despite being parked the mile) managed to squeeze out a moderate profit. Lately coming out with even a few of their dollars seems like a big win.