Dealing With Slumps

[thegiss]

Hey gang, myJanuauary Harness Eye column will be on how to deal with slumps and I am looking for perspective (although if you watch my picks lately, you know I have plenty of experience with them).
Do you alter yoru volume of plays, your type of plays, change tracks, just stay away?
I would like to use some of thes eopinions in the column.
Thanks in advance

[trackrat]

Good subject, Giss. I guess the answers will vary, based upon how each of us does our handicapping and how much we allow our bias to filter into our decision making. It also depends on the degree of slumping.

1) If I am just missing on my picks [horses are finishing close], then I just ride it out; no change in handicapping;
2) If I am ice cold, I stay away for a week or two;
3) If I am slumping just for the night in question, I will switch to one other track that I know well [usually the Meadowlands]. I've had nights where I could not pick a Northfield race but hit 4-5 at the Big M.

[sulkyhaven]

Hey Keith...I will usually back off on the larger exotic wagers (superfecta and pick fours) and concentrate on conditioned trifectas for a few days or whenever I get a better feel to wager more.

[the believer]

I wager less in a slump,i also would stay away from wagering for a few days ,in Sept of this year,i played in a handicapping contest ,but sat out wagering for 34 days straight(that included all of SEPT,and the best week in harness racing..Jug WEEK.

[jay44224]

When I am in a slump- like as of late- I stop playing exotics- I only play win & place.
I handicap other tracks but do not play them- (my reasoning if you are in a slump why gamble on a track you do not follow) - but handicapping more races without wagering them helps to get out of the slump- you do not spend as much time second guessing yourself (like you do when you get cold) and it is just good practice.

[cliff]

Slumps? What slumps?

I separate handicapping from wagering. I seldom slump as a handicapper. Let's face it, predicting the outcomes of races is not an exact science, but by using tried and true handicapping principles and some common sense, it is not difficult to pick 30% -35% winners, which ranks with the best handicappers around. What is difficult is making money at the track, and there in is where the dry spells (I prefer that term to "slump") lie.

My wagering dry spells can always be linked to three reasons. The first two are correctable, the third one is not:

1.) wagering too many races. This usually occurs when I am going well. Over confidence creeps in, and I am looking for wagering opportunities in races I usually pass on. This is easily corrected when I come back to earth and look at my wagering patterns objectively.

2.) inappropriate wagering strategies. Sometimes the winner is obvious, so why not just bet him to win? Like others I get caught up in the lure of big exotic payouts and end up putting too many funds in that direction. Simple is often better. Betting to win is the anchor to making a profit.

3.) racing luck. Horses break, accidents happen. Certain drivers feel they need to put their 50-1 shot in the lead, or park the animal outside early, thus destroying the normal race dynamics. Any number of things can mess up an otherwise good thing. Nothing you can do about it when it happens, but make notes and come right back to your horse the next week. Sometimes it can be an opportunity in disguise. If the bad luck isn't recognized my the masses, you can sometimes get a better price later on.

[trackrat]

Actually Cliff, you just touched on the reason for most of my slumps: betting too many races. Northfield's fields have been so bad this past year that one begins to think there is a sleeper in every race. Bad idea, as you know.