Post by cliff on Oct 24, 2006 9:41:51 GMT -5
An exclusive feature on this board will be my value play of the night (when I see one).
Tonight's (10/24) play is #3 Chocolate Fudge in the 8th. This still very green fillie was the beneficiary of a disqualification last week to win the second race of her young career. I have been reviewing her races at Northfield going back to early this summer, and have been impressed by her consistent improvement despite drawing poorly during the summer and having a couple of very eventful trips recently.
I believe this one has a large upside, perhaps more so than the other fillies she's facing tonight. I watched the replay of her August 7th race in which she drew the 8 hole in a 10 horse race. With Ray Fisher in the bike she trailed the field, 20 lengths off at the quarter, paced a 56.2 middle half on the outside to close within five lengths of the leaders. She ended up 5th, about 9 off the lead after the excitable youngster ran into another horse, causing interference and slowing her own momentum. She was disqualified and placed 10th, but that doesn't negate the terrific effort and gameness we saw from her that night. By the way the top three finishers that night were Look To Book, Blue Creek Angie, and My Sweet Lorelei. Have I made my case yet?
We haven't seen much in the way of early speed, an important factor on a half mile track, but then again she hasn't been asked to leave either. I have a hunch she has more early foot than is apparent judging from her gate to wire victory at Carrollton this summer. She does show several breaks which I attribute to her inexperience and excitability. Breaks should become less of an issue as she matures as a race horse.
Tonight the majority of the money will flow to Grismore on the rail, and Merriman in the 2 hole. I haven't seen anything special about either of those fillies. I'll be all over Chocolate Fudge if she is anything close to the morning line, and if the track looks race-able. Good luck.
Tonight's (10/24) play is #3 Chocolate Fudge in the 8th. This still very green fillie was the beneficiary of a disqualification last week to win the second race of her young career. I have been reviewing her races at Northfield going back to early this summer, and have been impressed by her consistent improvement despite drawing poorly during the summer and having a couple of very eventful trips recently.
I believe this one has a large upside, perhaps more so than the other fillies she's facing tonight. I watched the replay of her August 7th race in which she drew the 8 hole in a 10 horse race. With Ray Fisher in the bike she trailed the field, 20 lengths off at the quarter, paced a 56.2 middle half on the outside to close within five lengths of the leaders. She ended up 5th, about 9 off the lead after the excitable youngster ran into another horse, causing interference and slowing her own momentum. She was disqualified and placed 10th, but that doesn't negate the terrific effort and gameness we saw from her that night. By the way the top three finishers that night were Look To Book, Blue Creek Angie, and My Sweet Lorelei. Have I made my case yet?
We haven't seen much in the way of early speed, an important factor on a half mile track, but then again she hasn't been asked to leave either. I have a hunch she has more early foot than is apparent judging from her gate to wire victory at Carrollton this summer. She does show several breaks which I attribute to her inexperience and excitability. Breaks should become less of an issue as she matures as a race horse.
Tonight the majority of the money will flow to Grismore on the rail, and Merriman in the 2 hole. I haven't seen anything special about either of those fillies. I'll be all over Chocolate Fudge if she is anything close to the morning line, and if the track looks race-able. Good luck.
Sometimes the stars align themselves just right.