Post by cliff on Oct 29, 2006 10:57:20 GMT -5
We try to find value in the horses to wager. Value is defined as a price that doesn't accurately reflect a horse's chances of winning. The under bet and under valued horse is how we stay ahead of the game.
Value can also be found in drivers. I've mentioned that Todd Jones has been my value driver at Northfield for years. Corky's talents have never been fully recognized, and he is seemingly always undervalued. The Northfield regulars habitually wager on the top three drivers, Grismore, Merriman, and Fisher no matter what they happen to be driving that particular evening.
Jones may have to step aside, at least temporarily, as a new value driver has emerged, namely Ryan Stahl.
Now I'll admit I was one who cast a skeptical eye on Mr. Stahl when he first arrived as a Northfield regular. He obviously was better than many we were watching take horses around the oval and calling themselves drivers, but there was a roughness about his driving that I noted. Perhaps impatience would be a better adjective. He was taking horses to the lead who had no business leading a race; he was a textbook on how to orchestrate a bad trip; he had no plan on how to drive a race, it was just get on the gas and go. It was as if to say to Grismore, et. al. , "I'm here and I won't be bullied".
Well, demonstrations of manhood are one thing, winning races are another. Ryan was definitely in my "sometimes betable" category. If he had a superior horse, and a post where he could get that horse the lead, he was betable. Forget any other scenario. Northfield's bettors agreed with my assessment and priced his skills accordingly at the windows.
Times, they are a changing. Very gradually I've noticed a difference. Several weeks ago I made a note that Mr. Rough had finessed a victory with a horse I didn't feel was up to winning. Hadn't seen that before...he actually won with a horse that wasn't clearly the best in the race. Hmmm, that's new.
It wasn't overnight, like a light bulb going on, but more and more I saw Ryan actually looking for trips, being patient, and letting the race unfold before making his move. He was using both petals, gas and brake, effectively. The best drivers put their horses in the best possible position to win. In races where there are several contenders, it's quite often the trip or tactics that win the races. This is where the better drivers shine. At Northfield Ryan Stahl was becoming one of them. I have now put him in my "always betable" select group of drivers.
Here is where the value comes into play. The Northfield faithful are a stubborn lot. They change their habits at a glacier's pace. They are slow to recognize a transformation. They are still wagering Stahl like he was a driving newbie. Lets' go to this weekend's numbers:
Friday
FM Open - he wins with #2 Real Valentine at 7-1. Sure Van Anna had to be the favorite, given her upset in the Courageous Lady. But why was Grismore second choice with a very out of shape Chotat Milk? Ryan had scored an impressive second place finish with 45-1 Real Valentine the week before from the seven hole. The horse (and Ryan) were under valued relative to Chotat Milk and Grismore.
He followed that up with an upset win aboard #3 Prettylittleangle in the 10th. The horse went gate to wire against lesser the week before, and was moving up in class. Granted the race set up perfectly for Ryan as the favored rail horse took pressure the whole mile, but the important point is that he had the horse in the best possible striking position in the outer flow (remember the definition of an always betable driver), and he was able to take advantage of the race dynamics. Result - a 12-1 winner.
He picked up the hat trick in the 14th with a very tactical open length winning effort with Sofia. He left from the six hole and grabbed a pocket seat behind speed horse Eda Finn. A few months ago he may have challenged for the lead from the start; but not the new, improved Ryan Stahl. He waited patiently letting Merriman's horse do the work, then moved out at the 3/4 and drew away for the victory at 4-1. Don't feel bad, I whiffed horribly on that race as well.
Saturday it was the same story with victories aboard New Age (3-1), I'm Here To Win (7-1), and Powerful Sam (5-2). Not a favorite among any of them. The price on Powerful Sam was especially appealing as that horse should have gone off as the prohibitive favorite at less than even money, and would have if any of the "big three" drivers had been aboard. If you didn't catch Powerful Sam the week before at over 8-1 (another example of how Stahl is under valued at the windows) here was a chance to cash a decent winner.
Bottom line, always handicap the horse first, but if the likely winner has Stahl aboard, there will be a surprisingly good value, so don't be afraid to pull the trigger. At some point the public will catch on and the prices will go down. Until then ring the register whenever you can.
Value can also be found in drivers. I've mentioned that Todd Jones has been my value driver at Northfield for years. Corky's talents have never been fully recognized, and he is seemingly always undervalued. The Northfield regulars habitually wager on the top three drivers, Grismore, Merriman, and Fisher no matter what they happen to be driving that particular evening.
Jones may have to step aside, at least temporarily, as a new value driver has emerged, namely Ryan Stahl.
Now I'll admit I was one who cast a skeptical eye on Mr. Stahl when he first arrived as a Northfield regular. He obviously was better than many we were watching take horses around the oval and calling themselves drivers, but there was a roughness about his driving that I noted. Perhaps impatience would be a better adjective. He was taking horses to the lead who had no business leading a race; he was a textbook on how to orchestrate a bad trip; he had no plan on how to drive a race, it was just get on the gas and go. It was as if to say to Grismore, et. al. , "I'm here and I won't be bullied".
Well, demonstrations of manhood are one thing, winning races are another. Ryan was definitely in my "sometimes betable" category. If he had a superior horse, and a post where he could get that horse the lead, he was betable. Forget any other scenario. Northfield's bettors agreed with my assessment and priced his skills accordingly at the windows.
Times, they are a changing. Very gradually I've noticed a difference. Several weeks ago I made a note that Mr. Rough had finessed a victory with a horse I didn't feel was up to winning. Hadn't seen that before...he actually won with a horse that wasn't clearly the best in the race. Hmmm, that's new.
It wasn't overnight, like a light bulb going on, but more and more I saw Ryan actually looking for trips, being patient, and letting the race unfold before making his move. He was using both petals, gas and brake, effectively. The best drivers put their horses in the best possible position to win. In races where there are several contenders, it's quite often the trip or tactics that win the races. This is where the better drivers shine. At Northfield Ryan Stahl was becoming one of them. I have now put him in my "always betable" select group of drivers.
Here is where the value comes into play. The Northfield faithful are a stubborn lot. They change their habits at a glacier's pace. They are slow to recognize a transformation. They are still wagering Stahl like he was a driving newbie. Lets' go to this weekend's numbers:
Friday
FM Open - he wins with #2 Real Valentine at 7-1. Sure Van Anna had to be the favorite, given her upset in the Courageous Lady. But why was Grismore second choice with a very out of shape Chotat Milk? Ryan had scored an impressive second place finish with 45-1 Real Valentine the week before from the seven hole. The horse (and Ryan) were under valued relative to Chotat Milk and Grismore.
He followed that up with an upset win aboard #3 Prettylittleangle in the 10th. The horse went gate to wire against lesser the week before, and was moving up in class. Granted the race set up perfectly for Ryan as the favored rail horse took pressure the whole mile, but the important point is that he had the horse in the best possible striking position in the outer flow (remember the definition of an always betable driver), and he was able to take advantage of the race dynamics. Result - a 12-1 winner.
He picked up the hat trick in the 14th with a very tactical open length winning effort with Sofia. He left from the six hole and grabbed a pocket seat behind speed horse Eda Finn. A few months ago he may have challenged for the lead from the start; but not the new, improved Ryan Stahl. He waited patiently letting Merriman's horse do the work, then moved out at the 3/4 and drew away for the victory at 4-1. Don't feel bad, I whiffed horribly on that race as well.
Saturday it was the same story with victories aboard New Age (3-1), I'm Here To Win (7-1), and Powerful Sam (5-2). Not a favorite among any of them. The price on Powerful Sam was especially appealing as that horse should have gone off as the prohibitive favorite at less than even money, and would have if any of the "big three" drivers had been aboard. If you didn't catch Powerful Sam the week before at over 8-1 (another example of how Stahl is under valued at the windows) here was a chance to cash a decent winner.
Bottom line, always handicap the horse first, but if the likely winner has Stahl aboard, there will be a surprisingly good value, so don't be afraid to pull the trigger. At some point the public will catch on and the prices will go down. Until then ring the register whenever you can.
