Post by cliff on Oct 25, 2006 11:49:22 GMT -5
I actually bounce ideas off my wife (she's a better handicapper than she lets on...she always keeps it real). Recently she's questioned my reluctance to select a horse who has been on the shelf for a while.
"If he's the best horse, and the price is right, why don't you bet him?" she questions.
"The horse hasn't been out in over a month, he can't be sharp" is my reply.
"Well, maybe the horse needed a rest and will be fresher than the rest." is her answer.
"Hrumpt", I snidely dismiss her point.
We've had this discussion a couple times lately about a couple horses, Perfect Tea a few days ago, and Brookside Spirit last night. I stuck to my guns and didn't wager either, and of course, both won at respectable odds.
I forgot for a moment that class trumps all other considerations in cheap races. The classiest horses won both of those races. I'm taking a closer look at horses coming off a layoff in the cheaper races.
That is why I like #2 Laci's Town in the first race tonight. The horse hasn't been out since early August which would normally make me shy away. I'm not a big fan of maiden races anyway, but I may reconsider if the price is right tonight. The filly has the best proven speed, doing legit 1:55 - 1:56 times at Indiana this summer. Grismore will pull some money driving zero for lifetime Foal Play, and morning line favorite Git My Drift is sure to have his fans. A very bettable Ryan Stahl will get some action with the rail horse, Belle Beckley.
So I'm looking for around 4 or 5 to 1 on my choice, which would seem fair for the best (my opinion) horse on the track. I also like the driver change on #8 Eagle Dream in the 2nd. A $30 - $40 2/8 double is not out of the question. I may have to loosen up the wallet in such a case.
"If he's the best horse, and the price is right, why don't you bet him?" she questions.
"The horse hasn't been out in over a month, he can't be sharp" is my reply.
"Well, maybe the horse needed a rest and will be fresher than the rest." is her answer.
"Hrumpt", I snidely dismiss her point.
We've had this discussion a couple times lately about a couple horses, Perfect Tea a few days ago, and Brookside Spirit last night. I stuck to my guns and didn't wager either, and of course, both won at respectable odds.
I forgot for a moment that class trumps all other considerations in cheap races. The classiest horses won both of those races. I'm taking a closer look at horses coming off a layoff in the cheaper races.
That is why I like #2 Laci's Town in the first race tonight. The horse hasn't been out since early August which would normally make me shy away. I'm not a big fan of maiden races anyway, but I may reconsider if the price is right tonight. The filly has the best proven speed, doing legit 1:55 - 1:56 times at Indiana this summer. Grismore will pull some money driving zero for lifetime Foal Play, and morning line favorite Git My Drift is sure to have his fans. A very bettable Ryan Stahl will get some action with the rail horse, Belle Beckley.
So I'm looking for around 4 or 5 to 1 on my choice, which would seem fair for the best (my opinion) horse on the track. I also like the driver change on #8 Eagle Dream in the 2nd. A $30 - $40 2/8 double is not out of the question. I may have to loosen up the wallet in such a case.
