Post by cliff on Oct 27, 2006 1:37:27 GMT -5
Race 7 on fillies and mares Friday I've nicknamed the "Elvis" race. There is one real deal and a whole lot of impostors. In these cheap races we are always looking for class, and in this case there is only one with any class at all.
I'm speaking of #9 Perfect Tea. Let's look at the numbers: 20 wins in 53 lifetime starts (38%), most of the rest of the field wins less than ten percent of the time. Earns more than $800 per start lifetime, only one other entry has won even half that much.
That's all well and good, but what has she done lately? Picked up a victory gate to wire in her first start for her new owner/trainer. Throw out the last start: outside post against a speed horse with the rail, no outer flow to provide cover, plus the bounce factor. Jones never touched the horse, even in the lane.
Third start tonight, I'm looking for a better effort, especially against this field (only one other AE in the race). The post does give me pause. There's a chance the horse could get locked in early, or otherwise have a bad trip. Nevertheless, I like all the angles: class horse, recent barn change, third start back. The price should be fair, 8-1 morning line, and a driver who is never heavily bet. It's no coincidence Todd Jones was aboard the successful call of Doingit Dragonstyle a few days ago. It seems he's always under rated and undervalued at the windows.
Good luck.
I'm speaking of #9 Perfect Tea. Let's look at the numbers: 20 wins in 53 lifetime starts (38%), most of the rest of the field wins less than ten percent of the time. Earns more than $800 per start lifetime, only one other entry has won even half that much.
That's all well and good, but what has she done lately? Picked up a victory gate to wire in her first start for her new owner/trainer. Throw out the last start: outside post against a speed horse with the rail, no outer flow to provide cover, plus the bounce factor. Jones never touched the horse, even in the lane.
Third start tonight, I'm looking for a better effort, especially against this field (only one other AE in the race). The post does give me pause. There's a chance the horse could get locked in early, or otherwise have a bad trip. Nevertheless, I like all the angles: class horse, recent barn change, third start back. The price should be fair, 8-1 morning line, and a driver who is never heavily bet. It's no coincidence Todd Jones was aboard the successful call of Doingit Dragonstyle a few days ago. It seems he's always under rated and undervalued at the windows.
Good luck.