Best Bets 10/27

[cliff]

Best bets of the night, not necessarily the best plays given the probable odds. I'll be very surprised if the following are beaten.

Race 3 #1 Parallel Parked The post relief is obvious, as is the less important driver change. This one could have quite possibly won last week if it weren't for the road trouble in the lane. Stahl trying desperately to find room, had to pull up on the horse, then get her going again, getting up for show money. Any horse that can stop, then accelerate again (especially after leaving from the 8 hole at the start of the race) is in super form.

Race 4 #1 Stellar Bon A replay of the race reveals how shockingly easy the horse won last week. She was almost nonchalant in the victory. Stahl hardly touched the horse, she did it on her own. Gotta love a horse that knows what to do and loves doing it. Had she been on the rail where she could had the lead early, she wins by open lengths.

Race 11 #9 Tom's OK Lady Only a mistake from the second tier start will defeat this one, the other trotters can't. Nothing in the race is even close in speed and form.

Good Luck

[cliff]

Race 3 was a clinic on how to beat a 2/5 favorite, the same way you beat an all pro quarterback...pressure. Parallel Parked was pressured early by Betcha I Attack, and when that fillie fell back a bit, Kris Mouse Mindale took over the challenge. The sustained pressure from the start on took it's toll, and the sharp pretender, Peachfuzz closed for the victory.

My guess is that Betcha left and was willing to do a take/retake with the favorite and catch a nice pocket trip. Grismore would normally accomodate, but Kris Mouse was also in the outer flow, determined to get to the front. Gris couldn't let two horses pass him and leave him third on the rail with the prospect of coming first over in the second half, so he was forced to hold position at all cost, and, of course it cost him the victory.

Race 4 is an example of the best horse taking a seat and letting a pretender control the race. I hate it when that happens, but we've seen it countless times. We can't be overly critical of Stahl, because of what happened in the previous race, it's obvious Grismore would not be in the mood to give up the front end. No sense in dueling early, so Stahl had to take a seat. Unfortunately the horse couldn't be used to its potential, plus the passing lane is mucky death on a rainy night. In retrospect he may have been better off dropping off a bit at the start so he could get into the outer flow. The horse had won from three wide the week before and was probably up to the task again.

Race 11 went pretty much as forecast, no problemo for Tom's OK Lady.