Post by cliff on Oct 28, 2006 14:07:19 GMT -5
How does one find value or pick a longshot? Everyone has his own ideas on the subject. Here is a technique that I use which often times bears fruit. Let's look at tonight's (10/28) race 11. My value play of the night is #4 Up Front Guy. Here is the process I went through to pick this potential longshot.
The first thing to do is go back to the last time the horse won a race (or was a very close second). By definition the horse was in winning form at that time. Review the circumstances of that race. In the case of Up front Guy we only need to go back to 9/30. The track was sloppy, post was negative, class was a step below where he is racing tonight, he had a top driver in Aaron Merriman. Odds were 7-1.
The horse held position at the start, Arod pulled early picking up live cover going to the front. The colt was so full of pace that Aaron shed live cover before the final turn, going three wide and holding position on the final turn, to pace on by for the victory.
We then look to see what has happened to the horse since that race to warrant a 10-1 morning line. The idea is to find whether or not the horse's form has gone south, or are there legit excuses for his recent performances.
In his next start he is bumped up in class a bit. Post is negative again, track is fast, there is a driver downgrade to Ryan Angus (sorry Ryan, but you're not the driver Aaron is right now), he's in against an invitational quality animal, Osborne's Bullet, odds are 14-1.
Out of position early from the negative post, Angus has the horse outside fourth in line. The only recourse with excess cover is to go three wide on the back stretch. The horse ends up four wide in the final turn, holding his position relative to the other horses but losing a couple lengths to the leader. The horse picks up one position in the lane to finish 7th. In a race where the second half went faster than the first (uncommon on a half mile track) the horse did as well or better than we could have expected. We will definitely excuse the 7th place finish in this race.
Next start, same class (although arguably a better field) he draws a second tier start with top driver David Miller in the bike. Track is fast, odds are 11-1. Miller has the horse fifth at the quarter, about where we would expect him to be given the starting post. Miller gets the horse out in the cover flow in good position, second over in a very fast pace. He loses cover on the back stretch when the first over horse ducks inside as the lead horse has gapped the field. The horse continues to gain on the outside, holds its position on the final turn, and is only passed by the fast closing Chris Crombie in the lane. Another very credible effort in a tough race. Nothing wrong with that horse's form or gameness.
That brings us to last weeks start: same class, fast track, a positive post for a change, Angus back in the sulky, in against prohibitive favorite Laughing In An Art. Odds are 19-1. Road trouble from the start - interference which caused a break in stride. The horse spotted the leaders 20 lengths (I know what the program says, but trust me it was at least 20 lengths). He brushed to get back into the race by the half, picked up live cover from the eventual race winner, rode that ones wake all the way in to finish a length and a half off. Actually a pretty remarkable effort all things considered.
So we have established that the horse has not lost any form or moxie since his last victory. It has been circumstances and/or better horses that have beaten him. Now lets look at tonights race. Draws a positive post, track will probably be off, potentially way off, gets a top driver at the reins, short field with only seven entries, field is suspect. Top colt, Lite Me up draws outside. Invitational quality horse, Ice Cream Stand appears short since his layoff. Last weeks prohibitive favorite Laughing Is An Art has the rail and Grismore, and will be the likely favorite tonight. Will he be a bad favorite? My guess is yes. The horse hasn't looked competitive in his last three. If Grismore had liked his chances last week, he would have had the horse on the lead.
So there you have it. My estimation is that the stars have aligned for Up Front Guy tonight. Saturday is all about post and form. We've established that the horse is in fine (maybe great) form and the post is positive. It certainly helps to have a top driver in control as well. A bad track won't hurt his chances. With a potentially bad favorite and the money being spread around, he's my value/longshot play of the evening.
Note to pic4 players...if you are trying for the expanded pool this evening, this is not a horse to leave out. Nor is Grismore's horse the one to key on.
The first thing to do is go back to the last time the horse won a race (or was a very close second). By definition the horse was in winning form at that time. Review the circumstances of that race. In the case of Up front Guy we only need to go back to 9/30. The track was sloppy, post was negative, class was a step below where he is racing tonight, he had a top driver in Aaron Merriman. Odds were 7-1.
The horse held position at the start, Arod pulled early picking up live cover going to the front. The colt was so full of pace that Aaron shed live cover before the final turn, going three wide and holding position on the final turn, to pace on by for the victory.
We then look to see what has happened to the horse since that race to warrant a 10-1 morning line. The idea is to find whether or not the horse's form has gone south, or are there legit excuses for his recent performances.
In his next start he is bumped up in class a bit. Post is negative again, track is fast, there is a driver downgrade to Ryan Angus (sorry Ryan, but you're not the driver Aaron is right now), he's in against an invitational quality animal, Osborne's Bullet, odds are 14-1.
Out of position early from the negative post, Angus has the horse outside fourth in line. The only recourse with excess cover is to go three wide on the back stretch. The horse ends up four wide in the final turn, holding his position relative to the other horses but losing a couple lengths to the leader. The horse picks up one position in the lane to finish 7th. In a race where the second half went faster than the first (uncommon on a half mile track) the horse did as well or better than we could have expected. We will definitely excuse the 7th place finish in this race.
Next start, same class (although arguably a better field) he draws a second tier start with top driver David Miller in the bike. Track is fast, odds are 11-1. Miller has the horse fifth at the quarter, about where we would expect him to be given the starting post. Miller gets the horse out in the cover flow in good position, second over in a very fast pace. He loses cover on the back stretch when the first over horse ducks inside as the lead horse has gapped the field. The horse continues to gain on the outside, holds its position on the final turn, and is only passed by the fast closing Chris Crombie in the lane. Another very credible effort in a tough race. Nothing wrong with that horse's form or gameness.
That brings us to last weeks start: same class, fast track, a positive post for a change, Angus back in the sulky, in against prohibitive favorite Laughing In An Art. Odds are 19-1. Road trouble from the start - interference which caused a break in stride. The horse spotted the leaders 20 lengths (I know what the program says, but trust me it was at least 20 lengths). He brushed to get back into the race by the half, picked up live cover from the eventual race winner, rode that ones wake all the way in to finish a length and a half off. Actually a pretty remarkable effort all things considered.
So we have established that the horse has not lost any form or moxie since his last victory. It has been circumstances and/or better horses that have beaten him. Now lets look at tonights race. Draws a positive post, track will probably be off, potentially way off, gets a top driver at the reins, short field with only seven entries, field is suspect. Top colt, Lite Me up draws outside. Invitational quality horse, Ice Cream Stand appears short since his layoff. Last weeks prohibitive favorite Laughing Is An Art has the rail and Grismore, and will be the likely favorite tonight. Will he be a bad favorite? My guess is yes. The horse hasn't looked competitive in his last three. If Grismore had liked his chances last week, he would have had the horse on the lead.
So there you have it. My estimation is that the stars have aligned for Up Front Guy tonight. Saturday is all about post and form. We've established that the horse is in fine (maybe great) form and the post is positive. It certainly helps to have a top driver in control as well. A bad track won't hurt his chances. With a potentially bad favorite and the money being spread around, he's my value/longshot play of the evening.
Note to pic4 players...if you are trying for the expanded pool this evening, this is not a horse to leave out. Nor is Grismore's horse the one to key on.