Post by cliff on Oct 30, 2006 11:19:42 GMT -5
The late closer series which begin tonight makes Monday even more of nightmare than usual. Lots of unknowns in these races with unfamilar horses and drivers invading the flying turns. Patience may be the key to making money tonight. Watch these earlier races, take notes for the future, but keep a pretty tight grip on the wallet.
The 14th race may provide the cha ching for those patient enough to keep their bankrolls in tact until the finale. Be advised this is as much of a hunch as a true value play, but my hunch on Norman Pheeny Saturday proved to be right. I didn't cash on that one, and I'm not about to make the same mistake twice in a week.
The horse I'm looking at is #6 Just An Icon with newly crowned "value driver" Ryan Stahl aboard. The race is a 4000 claiming pace. This race debuted last week with true 4-5 claimer Blast The Siren destroying a mostly 3 claimer (with an inflated sense of their value) field. That winner had everything going for him. Obviously in shape, Grismore, plus a positive post. He went off at 4/5 which was actually a pretty decent price for a horse that was pretty much a lock.
Tonight could be a similar scenario. We have a mixed field of 3 claimers and out of shape 4-5 claimers. Look the field over for yourself and you might agree. M/L favorite Western Blues gave it up in the second half of his last two. 2nd favorite Golden Czar wired a group of 3's two weeks ago for his first victory of the year, then laid an egg last week as the favorite. The horse moves to the Schillaci barn this week and up in class. He will draw a lot of attention at the windows, but I'm skeptical there is that much left in this old war horse. I could be absolutely wrong, and the Jody magic revive this 12 year old, but he certainly won't be worth the price tonight.
Rail horse Badger Warrior is obviously out of shape, Stylish Sox hasn't raced since this summer. Foreveranever changes barns almost every week, with only Ryan Angus having a clue about this one. Medoland Bud won a hard fought victory as a 3 last week, but this horse seldom wins two in a row, especially moving up. The post is also a big minus. That Noble Magic was 100-1 last week from the same 8 hole he has drawn tonight. Not even Grismore will be able to get this one to the winners circle. Elegant Dude K is a sharp 3 claimer with a poor post. He'll be dropped back down to his normal level soon enough.
That leaves us with my choice Just An Icon. This past summer this claimer was competing effectively at the 8 level, although I classify him as a true 6. He was even the favorite at that level with Grismore in the bike. The horse was claimed for six, but maintained his form for another month. The wheels came off, and the horse was dropped back into the 6's. The horse was then laid off for a month, came back with a vengence wiring a group of cheap condition horses. I wrote a note that class had triumphed once again in a cheap race. I missed my chance that night at 10-1.
In his next start he drew the second tier against much better stock. The horse trailed the field in a fast paced race that went in 1:55.1, awfully quick for this time of year. I would have liked to have seen more out of the horse in that one, but I'm willing to give him a pass considering it was the "bounce" race and the level of competition.
Also the New Zealand bred horses have a history of getting sick with drastic fall offs in form. When they get well, they often bounce back just as fast as they went down. They never scratched this horse, but my hunch is that he became sick, which is why his form deteriorated, and they gave him a month off.
Tonight we have his third start back since the layoff. He picks up the very hot Ryan Stahl who has won several from this post recently. The rest of the field is suspect. Money will be spread around, so the price will be right.
What I'm betting on is a form reversal and his class to show. Since this is as much a hunch and reading between the lines as a play with concrete evidence, I need a pretty fair price. The morning line of 8-1 is the minimum I need to make this play. I think I'll get it with the possibility of double digits. With a pretty solid favorite in the 13th of class dropper Four Starzzz Matt, the late 4/6 double will be enticing.
Good luck
The 14th race may provide the cha ching for those patient enough to keep their bankrolls in tact until the finale. Be advised this is as much of a hunch as a true value play, but my hunch on Norman Pheeny Saturday proved to be right. I didn't cash on that one, and I'm not about to make the same mistake twice in a week.
The horse I'm looking at is #6 Just An Icon with newly crowned "value driver" Ryan Stahl aboard. The race is a 4000 claiming pace. This race debuted last week with true 4-5 claimer Blast The Siren destroying a mostly 3 claimer (with an inflated sense of their value) field. That winner had everything going for him. Obviously in shape, Grismore, plus a positive post. He went off at 4/5 which was actually a pretty decent price for a horse that was pretty much a lock.
Tonight could be a similar scenario. We have a mixed field of 3 claimers and out of shape 4-5 claimers. Look the field over for yourself and you might agree. M/L favorite Western Blues gave it up in the second half of his last two. 2nd favorite Golden Czar wired a group of 3's two weeks ago for his first victory of the year, then laid an egg last week as the favorite. The horse moves to the Schillaci barn this week and up in class. He will draw a lot of attention at the windows, but I'm skeptical there is that much left in this old war horse. I could be absolutely wrong, and the Jody magic revive this 12 year old, but he certainly won't be worth the price tonight.
Rail horse Badger Warrior is obviously out of shape, Stylish Sox hasn't raced since this summer. Foreveranever changes barns almost every week, with only Ryan Angus having a clue about this one. Medoland Bud won a hard fought victory as a 3 last week, but this horse seldom wins two in a row, especially moving up. The post is also a big minus. That Noble Magic was 100-1 last week from the same 8 hole he has drawn tonight. Not even Grismore will be able to get this one to the winners circle. Elegant Dude K is a sharp 3 claimer with a poor post. He'll be dropped back down to his normal level soon enough.
That leaves us with my choice Just An Icon. This past summer this claimer was competing effectively at the 8 level, although I classify him as a true 6. He was even the favorite at that level with Grismore in the bike. The horse was claimed for six, but maintained his form for another month. The wheels came off, and the horse was dropped back into the 6's. The horse was then laid off for a month, came back with a vengence wiring a group of cheap condition horses. I wrote a note that class had triumphed once again in a cheap race. I missed my chance that night at 10-1.
In his next start he drew the second tier against much better stock. The horse trailed the field in a fast paced race that went in 1:55.1, awfully quick for this time of year. I would have liked to have seen more out of the horse in that one, but I'm willing to give him a pass considering it was the "bounce" race and the level of competition.
Also the New Zealand bred horses have a history of getting sick with drastic fall offs in form. When they get well, they often bounce back just as fast as they went down. They never scratched this horse, but my hunch is that he became sick, which is why his form deteriorated, and they gave him a month off.
Tonight we have his third start back since the layoff. He picks up the very hot Ryan Stahl who has won several from this post recently. The rest of the field is suspect. Money will be spread around, so the price will be right.
What I'm betting on is a form reversal and his class to show. Since this is as much a hunch and reading between the lines as a play with concrete evidence, I need a pretty fair price. The morning line of 8-1 is the minimum I need to make this play. I think I'll get it with the possibility of double digits. With a pretty solid favorite in the 13th of class dropper Four Starzzz Matt, the late 4/6 double will be enticing.
Good luck