Post by cliff on Nov 3, 2006 14:11:09 GMT -5
Looks pretty chalky tonight. One thing to watch for is how Aaron Merriman looks upon his return (assuming he does return) since the accident.
A couple of my watched horses are in tonight. In the 1st, trotter #5 Call Me Your Baby gets her second start for the Ehrhardt barn. I speculated the horse would improve, perhaps very much so, based upon Keven's history with Lucas Revenge and Scormania earlier this year. Aaron left aggressively from the outside last week, but couldn't find a hole. He pushed the horse on to the lead past the half, but the effort was a bit too much, and she faltered in the lane, allowing the favorite to get up for the victory.
The second start tonight may be the key. We have speed horse Just Daisy on the rail, and off form class dropper Green Acre Patty inside Baby. I expect Aaron to leave again and find a seat this time with Just Daisy on the lead. We shall see if this horse was another good find for Ehrhardt in the second half.
In the 3rd Miss Panama Beach draws the three slot against a field she should defeat. Elliott took her strong to the 3/4 on the outside, then let her jog home which should tighten her up for tonight's race. Class dropper #2 Screaming Towner and impressive winner #5 Brenna's Hangover seem to be the filly's main completion, but I don't see either one in the winners circle if Miss Beach is on her game.
One possible value play is in the 12th. I like #2 Bom Bay B B in a minor upset over the other inside competitors. The last two starts Aaron was content to sit on the rail and let the leader do the work. Last week the horse almost got up for the victory in the passing lane (a difficult task this time of year). This is the 4th start since the sick scratch, and given the late surge in her last race, I see her coming back into form. With the notable exception of 8 holer Explore, this mare has won more money per start this season than anyone else in the race which says something about her relative class. So we have a classy horse returning to form, nice post, top driver, and a price likely to be right in this very even race. That's for me.
A couple of my watched horses are in tonight. In the 1st, trotter #5 Call Me Your Baby gets her second start for the Ehrhardt barn. I speculated the horse would improve, perhaps very much so, based upon Keven's history with Lucas Revenge and Scormania earlier this year. Aaron left aggressively from the outside last week, but couldn't find a hole. He pushed the horse on to the lead past the half, but the effort was a bit too much, and she faltered in the lane, allowing the favorite to get up for the victory.
The second start tonight may be the key. We have speed horse Just Daisy on the rail, and off form class dropper Green Acre Patty inside Baby. I expect Aaron to leave again and find a seat this time with Just Daisy on the lead. We shall see if this horse was another good find for Ehrhardt in the second half.
In the 3rd Miss Panama Beach draws the three slot against a field she should defeat. Elliott took her strong to the 3/4 on the outside, then let her jog home which should tighten her up for tonight's race. Class dropper #2 Screaming Towner and impressive winner #5 Brenna's Hangover seem to be the filly's main completion, but I don't see either one in the winners circle if Miss Beach is on her game.
One possible value play is in the 12th. I like #2 Bom Bay B B in a minor upset over the other inside competitors. The last two starts Aaron was content to sit on the rail and let the leader do the work. Last week the horse almost got up for the victory in the passing lane (a difficult task this time of year). This is the 4th start since the sick scratch, and given the late surge in her last race, I see her coming back into form. With the notable exception of 8 holer Explore, this mare has won more money per start this season than anyone else in the race which says something about her relative class. So we have a classy horse returning to form, nice post, top driver, and a price likely to be right in this very even race. That's for me.
