Post by cliff on Nov 11, 2006 14:22:53 GMT -5
May have found some value in tonight's (11/11) 5th race. In my picks I gave the nod to morning line favorite Civil Attack. But after further reflection I am now leaning to my second choice, #3 Grissini with a very generous morning line of 10-1.
My equivocation is do in part to the prospect of a lousy track tonight. Civil Attack is prepping for the Windy City Pace next Saturday at Maywood. As we have discussed before, young horses prepping for big races are not necessarily good bets, especially on bad tracks. Civil Attack hasn't raced on a half miler since Jug week at Delaware, so I am surmising Dean Collins is more interested in giving the horse a trip on a short track before the big race, than necessarily winning tonight. Not only that the horse looked flat in his last race as the favorite.
Grissini, on the other hand, won the last time out at Indy. This horse has an interesting history. He made $40k last year in 27 starts, including a mark of 1:52.4 at M1. He was racing against top competition in Canada last fall before being scratched sick the first of October and shut down until this past August. One race that caught my eye was a place finish, a quarter length off, on a first over bid at Flamboro Downs just over a year ago. He was timed at 1:53.4. I don't know much about FlmD, except to say it's not rated as fast as Nfld. Granted, the pacer was in peak form at the time, but his last two lines would indicate he is on the way back.
The competition would appear to come from #2 Up Front Guy, who is very sharp, and has proven himself on recent bad tracks. The other horse to consider is Tre Bien, who won impressively his last time out, but now is up in class, has drawn the dreaded eight hole, and has a stale date.
The generous morning line may well hold, with money flowing to Civil Attack, Deaton and Grismore. Grissini is a must use horse in the pic3 at least. Personally, I may use the horse a bit more than that.
Good luck
My equivocation is do in part to the prospect of a lousy track tonight. Civil Attack is prepping for the Windy City Pace next Saturday at Maywood. As we have discussed before, young horses prepping for big races are not necessarily good bets, especially on bad tracks. Civil Attack hasn't raced on a half miler since Jug week at Delaware, so I am surmising Dean Collins is more interested in giving the horse a trip on a short track before the big race, than necessarily winning tonight. Not only that the horse looked flat in his last race as the favorite.
Grissini, on the other hand, won the last time out at Indy. This horse has an interesting history. He made $40k last year in 27 starts, including a mark of 1:52.4 at M1. He was racing against top competition in Canada last fall before being scratched sick the first of October and shut down until this past August. One race that caught my eye was a place finish, a quarter length off, on a first over bid at Flamboro Downs just over a year ago. He was timed at 1:53.4. I don't know much about FlmD, except to say it's not rated as fast as Nfld. Granted, the pacer was in peak form at the time, but his last two lines would indicate he is on the way back.
The competition would appear to come from #2 Up Front Guy, who is very sharp, and has proven himself on recent bad tracks. The other horse to consider is Tre Bien, who won impressively his last time out, but now is up in class, has drawn the dreaded eight hole, and has a stale date.
The generous morning line may well hold, with money flowing to Civil Attack, Deaton and Grismore. Grissini is a must use horse in the pic3 at least. Personally, I may use the horse a bit more than that.
Good luck