Post by cliff on Nov 13, 2006 13:15:52 GMT -5
Plenty of value out there tonight (11/13). 
Race 2 #1 Laci's-Town, one of my watched horses went off at 110-1 last week. The horse actually looked pretty good. He never saw the rail the whole trip, raced in air at a very quick pace. From the rail looks third best and should complete the trifecta behind the two favorites.
Race 4 I admit when I'm wrong, and I was wrong about #2 Foreveranever last week. The victim of a crash 10/30, the horse came back strong last week. Having to deal with excess cover the horse made a strong three wide move in the back stretch to sweep by all, save the race winner, Blast The Siren. The history on this one is that he can move right up the ladder when he gets right. The morning line is about right, but I'm anticipating the money to be spread around mainly to the top tier drivers. I expect the final price on Foreveranever to be in the 9-2, 5-1 range, a very nice value for this probable winner.
Race 6 #2 Rose Run Freddie looks like a huge value at 9-2. Perhaps the owners are done screwing around with this one in the Billings series and out at the fairs and will try to make some money for a change. I don't usually give the call to a horse that is 0 for the season, but I know how good this one can be with the proper training and a top driver. When Janet Irvine trained this horse he competed successfully in much higher conditions. Last year the horse won at NW400PS with Bill Irvine aboard. Both Ray Fisher and Elliott Deaton have gotten him to trot in two minutes in losing bids against much better competition than he faces tonight. If the track is fair I see him him setting a lifetime mark tonight. Just hope the ML holds (I have my doubts).
Race 11 6-1 on a Grismore driven, Virgil Morgan, Jr. trained, fast improving 3yo? ( #5 Foreveraty) That's for me. ML favorite Magical Marti made no effort last week. That was a big disappointment given the effort the horse made the week before. I know he had the 7 hole in a tough class, but it is unlike Aaron Merriman not to try at all. Either Schillaci crunched the numbers and saw the horse would be eligible to drop with an off the board finish and told Aaron to wait a week, or there is something wrong with the horse. We will find out tonight. Whatever the case we can't leave Foreveraty out of the pic3 and pic4 plays.
Finally race 12 I'll be taking a chance on longshot #5 Bubontherun with Tony Hall aboard. Unlike last week when my key horse Briar's Return had everything his own way, Ryan Stahl will have plenty of company on the front end. Grismore and Fisher will both be challenging early. Let's not forget speed ball Petala, who knows only one way to race, is back on the gate. The race would appear to set up well for a true closer.
Bubontherun is an interesting story. He set a mark of 1:55.2 at Freehold last year, which proves he knows his way around a half mile track. Freehold is a slower track than Northfield. Since the current trainer has had the horse, he is 7 3 1 1 after being put on lasix. The horse made an uncharacteristic break last start, but his owner/trainer decided to move him up. You folks know how I like claimers moving up especially when it's after a lackluster performance. I doubt we'll see a double digit price on the horse, but 8-1 would be a threshold when we'd have to pull the trigger.
Good luck.
Race 2 #1 Laci's-Town, one of my watched horses went off at 110-1 last week. The horse actually looked pretty good. He never saw the rail the whole trip, raced in air at a very quick pace. From the rail looks third best and should complete the trifecta behind the two favorites.
Race 4 I admit when I'm wrong, and I was wrong about #2 Foreveranever last week. The victim of a crash 10/30, the horse came back strong last week. Having to deal with excess cover the horse made a strong three wide move in the back stretch to sweep by all, save the race winner, Blast The Siren. The history on this one is that he can move right up the ladder when he gets right. The morning line is about right, but I'm anticipating the money to be spread around mainly to the top tier drivers. I expect the final price on Foreveranever to be in the 9-2, 5-1 range, a very nice value for this probable winner.
Race 6 #2 Rose Run Freddie looks like a huge value at 9-2. Perhaps the owners are done screwing around with this one in the Billings series and out at the fairs and will try to make some money for a change. I don't usually give the call to a horse that is 0 for the season, but I know how good this one can be with the proper training and a top driver. When Janet Irvine trained this horse he competed successfully in much higher conditions. Last year the horse won at NW400PS with Bill Irvine aboard. Both Ray Fisher and Elliott Deaton have gotten him to trot in two minutes in losing bids against much better competition than he faces tonight. If the track is fair I see him him setting a lifetime mark tonight. Just hope the ML holds (I have my doubts).
Race 11 6-1 on a Grismore driven, Virgil Morgan, Jr. trained, fast improving 3yo? ( #5 Foreveraty) That's for me. ML favorite Magical Marti made no effort last week. That was a big disappointment given the effort the horse made the week before. I know he had the 7 hole in a tough class, but it is unlike Aaron Merriman not to try at all. Either Schillaci crunched the numbers and saw the horse would be eligible to drop with an off the board finish and told Aaron to wait a week, or there is something wrong with the horse. We will find out tonight. Whatever the case we can't leave Foreveraty out of the pic3 and pic4 plays.
Finally race 12 I'll be taking a chance on longshot #5 Bubontherun with Tony Hall aboard. Unlike last week when my key horse Briar's Return had everything his own way, Ryan Stahl will have plenty of company on the front end. Grismore and Fisher will both be challenging early. Let's not forget speed ball Petala, who knows only one way to race, is back on the gate. The race would appear to set up well for a true closer.
Bubontherun is an interesting story. He set a mark of 1:55.2 at Freehold last year, which proves he knows his way around a half mile track. Freehold is a slower track than Northfield. Since the current trainer has had the horse, he is 7 3 1 1 after being put on lasix. The horse made an uncharacteristic break last start, but his owner/trainer decided to move him up. You folks know how I like claimers moving up especially when it's after a lackluster performance. I doubt we'll see a double digit price on the horse, but 8-1 would be a threshold when we'd have to pull the trigger.
Good luck.
