Post by cliff on Dec 2, 2006 17:06:08 GMT -5
"It is an old maxim of mine that when you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." - Sherlock Holmes
Sometimes when handicapping a race, the process of elimination is a valuable tool. Take tonight's (12/02) second race for example. I noticed both Jay and I like #2 Silver Duck, perhaps for different reasons. Here is my analysis:
Last week the Duck was gapped early and had to race in air to catch the field. He was third over in the second half, tipped out four wide before thinking better of that move on the final turn, and moved back inside. The horse's fine form is hidden in a very deceptive line. The only two horses better in that race were Mackie Boy and Fox Valley Sting, both of which are in other races tonight. Mackie Boy is the morning line favorite and Fox Valley Sting has been claimed and moved up.
Who does he need to beat tonight:
#1 Half Full - couldn't hold on to beat cheap condition company earlier this week after setting a slow pace. Granted Grismore can rate a horse better than Sturgeon, but Half Full doesn't look ready to beat eight claimers.
#3 He's Inebriated - isn't racing particularly well and doesn't fit the class
#4 Doctor Young - improving, but also couldn't hang on against condition company.
#5 Matt's Best - still looks lame and has no driver
#6 Vandal Hanover - beaten favorite backed up after a good second over trip, negative post tonight
#7 Were In Luck - form cycle on downward trend, took a week off, dropped in class (never a good sign for claimers), also negative post.
Hmmmmmm, 6-1 on the best looking horse in the race. That's for me.
Sometimes when handicapping a race, the process of elimination is a valuable tool. Take tonight's (12/02) second race for example. I noticed both Jay and I like #2 Silver Duck, perhaps for different reasons. Here is my analysis:
Last week the Duck was gapped early and had to race in air to catch the field. He was third over in the second half, tipped out four wide before thinking better of that move on the final turn, and moved back inside. The horse's fine form is hidden in a very deceptive line. The only two horses better in that race were Mackie Boy and Fox Valley Sting, both of which are in other races tonight. Mackie Boy is the morning line favorite and Fox Valley Sting has been claimed and moved up.
Who does he need to beat tonight:
#1 Half Full - couldn't hold on to beat cheap condition company earlier this week after setting a slow pace. Granted Grismore can rate a horse better than Sturgeon, but Half Full doesn't look ready to beat eight claimers.
#3 He's Inebriated - isn't racing particularly well and doesn't fit the class
#4 Doctor Young - improving, but also couldn't hang on against condition company.
#5 Matt's Best - still looks lame and has no driver
#6 Vandal Hanover - beaten favorite backed up after a good second over trip, negative post tonight
#7 Were In Luck - form cycle on downward trend, took a week off, dropped in class (never a good sign for claimers), also negative post.
Hmmmmmm, 6-1 on the best looking horse in the race. That's for me.
